Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts

Sunday, July 15, 2007

The Ultimate What If Game

You may not know this about me, but I enjoy the occasional What If Game.

Okay, now that you’ve digested that thoroughly unfathomable statement, I’ll mention what a What If thrill it was reading Filip Bondy’s Tip-Off: How the 1984 NBA Draft Changed Basketball Forever. It really doesn’t break too much new ground overall (though I didn’t know about the potential Sampson-for-Jordan trade in the works or how the Mavs sort of got strong-armed out of a coin-flip for Jordan), but it’s a fast and easy read, and as I noted...for fans of the What If Game, it leads your imagination in some pretty fun places.

The first two-thirds of Tip-Off are focused on all the minor details that went into setting the specific draft order that resulted in Houston getting #1, Portland #2, et cetera. He establishes this though character profiles of the guys who actually went #1, 2, 3. It's a pretty easy trick, but it's well-executed.

Like Boston and Memphis (among others) this year, Houston was accused of tanking down the stretch to get a better draft position (playing anicent star Elvin Hayes 53 minutes in one game near the end of the season). Meanwhile, Indiana (whose pick was owned by Portland), Chicago, and Cleveland (whose pick was owned by Dallas and whose ownership and management were so bad in the early-‘80s that David Stern decided to give them an extra first round pick if a new buyer would come into the picture) finished just two games apart. Also, the San Diego Clippers didn’t own their own pick (it was in Philly’s hands) and—possibly because of this—didn’t slack off down the stretch, improving their record and hurting their draft standing. Philly absolutely loved Michael Jordan (eventually making numerous offers to Chicago for their #3), but instead of getting the #2 or 3 pick like they thought they’d get earlier in the season, they fell to #5 and had to ‘settle’ for Charles Barkley.

It's hard to tell how well-written this part is simply because the story basically tells itself (though I can say with absolute certainty that he does a better job of telling the story than I did in that last paragraph). You don't need great literary prowess to make this readable, though Bondy deserves credit for realizing this and not blowing things out of proportion. He doesn't take the Joss Stone approach--showing off all your skills in every song even when totally unnecessary...and therefore ruining something simple and solid--and that's good. His tone is measured and straight-forward. There are a few minor editing errors throughout the book--it could have benefited from better editing--but not enough to discredit the writing as a whole.

So Bondy establishes the characters and does a relatively amusing play-by-play of the draft broadcast (let's just say things have changed slightly in the last 23 years). Before moving on to the last third of the book--what happened after 1984--he does all the What If'ers a favor by summarizing a lot of the What If’s on one page (pg. 180), and I hope I don’t get in trouble for blurbing this:

1. If Portland had won the coin flip, the Blazers planned to choose Olajuwon while the Rockets would have taken Jordan at the number 2 spot to complement Sampson.

2. If the Rockets had offered a deal sending Ralph Sampson to Chicago, the Bulls were willing to trade away their #3 pick.

3. If the Cavaliers had just lost one more game during the regular season, or if the Bulls had won one more, the two teams would have finished in a tie. A coin flip might have awarded the #3 pick to the Dallas Mavericks, who owned Cleveland’s draft choice.

4. If Sam Bowie’s frail legs had failed a physical exam with Portland, the Blazers would have settled on Jordan.

5. If Bowie had come out after his sophomore year, when his mother hung up the phone on that notion, the Blazers would have tabbed Jordan.

6. If the Rockets had grabbed local hero Clyde Drexler in the 1983 draft with their second pick, number 3 overall in the first round, then Portland would not have been able to choose Drexler much lower at #14. Without Drexler, the Blazers would have lacked a young shooting guard and would have picked Jordan in 1984.

7. If Jonathan Kovler, the Bulls’ chief operating officer, had insisted on accepting Harold Katz’s offer of the established, aging superstar, Julius Erving, then Thorn might not have been able to retain the #3 pick.
The What If’iness doesn’t stop with 1984, however. Tip-Off is full of little blurbs about previous drafs and scenarios—Rod Thorn and Chicago lost a coin flip in 1979 that would have resulted in the Bulls drafting Magic Johnson, for example; and hell, for that matter, the only reason the Lakers were involved in that coin flip was that they hade traded Gail Goodrich to the New Orleans Jazz in 1976 for a then-future #1.

The book's full of fun stuff like that. Granted, this really is an easy topic—I mean, how freaking fantastic was the talent level here? It’s hard to imagine that one class produced FOUR of the all-time Top 50 players—Hakeem, Jordan, Barkley, and Stockton—along with all-stars like Alvin Robertson and Otis Thorpe and other strong players like Ageless Kevin Willis, Sam Perkins, and Jerome Kersey...and yes, Sam Bowie. But easy topic or no, there really hadn't been a solid, in-depth look at this draft, and Bondy fills the void nicely.

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Sunday, July 1, 2007

Because It's Never Too Early . . .

Have a look at a 2008 NBA mock draft. It really is startling how fast the college game turns over now. None of the top five picks have yet played an NCAA contest, and only a handful of projected first round selections (Darren Collison, Roy Hibbert, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush) have had particularly distinguished careers to this point. Kansas State head coach Michael Beasley is slated to go second overall to the Celtics, but if I know Danny Ainge, he'll be sending that pick to the Buffalo Braves for Bob McAdoo.

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Friday, June 29, 2007

"Bigger than Slava Medvedenko"

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Mizzou Links, 6-29-07

Okay, I probably shouldn't call these Mizzou Links, really...

  • Well, Kevin Pritchard didn't quite live up to my expectations, making only four trades last night instead of the six he pulled off last year. And he appeared to get taken pretty badly by the Knicks. But instead of complaining about the one trade (and why they had to give up Fred Jones and a 2nd-round pick along with Randolph for a backup PF and one of the Knicks' 12 shoot-first PG's), let's look at the big picture:

    What the Blazers got on draft night:
    #1 pick: Greg Oden (C) - maybe you've heard of him?
    #24 pick: Rudy Fernandez (SG) - Spanish guard who's been highly regarded for a few years now...will be overseas at least one more season
    #30 pick: Petteri Koponen (PG/SG) - Finnish guard who apparently wowed the Blazers in individual workouts
    #37 pick: Josh McRoberts (PF/C) - apparently Oden's best friend outside of Ohio State
    #52 pick: Taurean Green (PG) - pretty decent late pick...can't tell whether he'll stick on the team or not, but it's worth a 2nd round pick to find out
    Channing Frye (PF) - will be a strong backup to Aldridge/Oden
    Stevie Franchise (PG/SG) - BLEH
    James Jones (SF) - not bad since they had to just give up cash for him

    What the Blazers gave up on draft night:
    Zach Randolph (PF) - the biased fan in me thought they'd get more for him
    Dan Dickau (PG) - never seemed to fit with Nate McMillan
    Fred Jones (SG) - I was looking forward to him being a decent backup
    #42 pick: Derrick Byars - eh
    #53 pick: Demetris Nichols - eh
    Cash - make it rain!
    In all, that's not bad. I actually wanted them to take Fernandez in last year's draft, and apparently Koponen had an unbelievable workout for them recently, so it didn't surprise me to see them trade for him (though I expected them to have to give up more than cash). I absolutely loved Fernandez's game film--he makes pull-up 3's like a mid-range jumper--but I guess he has an insane buyout clause that will probably keep him overseas another year. Frye will be a lovely backup for Aldridge/Oden (though I'd have obviously preferred David Lee), and James Jones is a sharp-shooting small forward--Oden's presence should give Jones and Martell Webster lots of open looks, which is a lovely thought.

    I do like that they got a couple of European risks (can you tell that Pritchard cut his teeth with the Spurs?) and balanced them with a couple of steady college players in McRoberts and Green. McRoberts does not in any way light my fire--and I thought all the NCAA hoops experts ESPN insists on trotting out there had him significantly overrated--but a) I like him much better as a 2nd-round pick than a late lottery pick like he was being projected for a while, and b) he and Oden are really, really tight. I could see him doing decent things in the 10-15 mpg that could probably be allotted to him backing up Oden/Aldridge and Frye/Przybilla. Green's got a lot of decent skills--and the Blazers loved him during workouts--but I still can't tell if he'll stick. There are lots of guys out there with his skill set.

    Now...they still appeared to give up way too much to the Knicks. I don't like the thought of Stevie Franchise sitting at the end of the bench with Darius Miles, grousing and poisoning the clubhouse, but maybe they'll just buy out his contract or something. And I expected the Blazers to be in possession of a better SF than James Jones at the end of the night. But in the end, though, there's no doubting that the Blazers are infinitely better today than they were yesterday morning, so I won't complain. Yet. Pritchard has earned an infinite amount of good will from me in the last 12 months, so I'll cut him some slack for what appears to be one bad trade among many decent ones.

  • Note to Stephen A. Smith: talking louder does not make you smarter. Just so you know.
  • Note to ESPN: you're not scoring points with me by putting him on my television more and more each day. Lucky for you, Mike Tirico is fantastic.
  • Note to Sprite: your new commercials really creep me out.
  • Note to the Sonics: next time you're planning on moving your team out of town, try to make it a little less obvious.
  • Note to TNT: I really really really miss your draft coverage.
  • I must say, I did enjoy Jay Bilas comparing Big Baby Davis to Oprah. That one caught Tirico a bit off-guard.
That's all for now. Will probably post a link to Simmons' annual draft diary when it's posted...

UPDATE, 9:15am: As promised. And here's his note on the Randolph/Francis trade:

6:14: Good God, Isiah finally made a good trade! It happened! Somehow, he just landed Zach Randolph for Channing Frye and Stevie Francis! I'm shocked! What's happening to this league? Even Isiah is doing the right thing! I can't stop using exclamation points! How was that the best Portland could do for Randolph??? He's good for a 25-10 in the East! And if it doesn't work out, who cares? They gave up a bad contract and a half-decent forward to take a $50 million flier on a dominant low-post player. Great move. I stand by these thoughts even if Zach starts an international incident at Scores within the next nine months.

(Follow-up note: I think Portland GM Kevin Pritchard spent an hour thinking about it and decided, "You know what? Just to be safe, maybe it's best that Oden and Randolph never, ever, ever meet. Call Isiah and tell him we say yes to the crappy Francis-Frye offer. We can't mess around.")
Makes as much sense as anything else.

Oh, and a bonus note. Note to Joakim Noah: next time you're getting drafted on national TV, don't hire Bone Thugs 'N Harmony as your personal fashion consultants. Thanks.

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Wednesday, June 27, 2007

If the math in my head is right...

...if you have 16 and the dealer's showing 10, you should hit. You're probably going to lose either way, but your odds of losing are at least slightly smaller if you hit. I know this. Well...I think I know this. I know this as well as one can calculate odds in their head. When I'm playing blackjack on my phone, I hit everytime in that scenario.

However, when I'm sitting at a $10 blackjack table, I stay. Every time. I get scared.

Now...leading up to last month's NBA Draft Lottery, I was all about Kevin Durant. I mean, Greg Oden never posted 37 points and 23 rebounds in one college game (against an NCAA tournament team, no less). Greg Oden made the NCAA finals, but he had fellow lottery pick Mike Conley on his team. Oden's great, but the game's getting faster and Durant's the future of the league.

I really did think all of these things.

And then Portland--my team--got the #1 pick. And the first thing I thought was, "I hope they take Oden."

Am I just getting scared again? Am I staying on 16? I mean, Oden's great, but Durant's the future, right? And since I consider myself a major numbers nerd, surely Hollinger's numbers were enough to sway me, right?

Uhh...

Okay. If Kevin Pritchard goes against the grain and takes Durant, I won't complain one bit. Not one bit. Durant's fantastic. But I'd still prefer Oden.

Hollinger’s numbers are great, and I love that the league is going in the direction of using crap like that...but is there anywhere in his ‘machine’ that accounts for effect on team defense? I mean, he takes blocks and rebound into account, but that's not enough.

In a chat with Chad Ford today, good old Bill Simmons once again took the opportunity to rail on anybody who thought Oden should go #1.

If I'm Portland's GM, I just spent the last five weeks wondering about Greg Oden. What's his ceiling? Can he be better than Patrick Ewing? Alonzo Mourning? Can he become as dominant as Tim Duncan? Should I be worried about his surgically repaired wrist, or the fact that he might suffer back problems some day because his legs are different sizes? What about the fact that he likes basketball, but doesn't love it? The thing is, all these franchise centers are basically the same -- it just comes down to their inherent will to dominate a game. Hakeem had that will, Duncan has it, Moses had it, Shaq had it in 2000 and 2001 ... for whatever reason, Ewing didn't have it, and neither did Mourning or Robinson. Can you see Oden stepping onto a basketball court and saying, "There's no way we're losing this f-ing game. I'm destroying the other team tonight." For some reason, I can't.

Well, Durant plays that way every game. He's a cold-blooded killer.
He goes on to call Oden (again) the Next Pat Ewing.

Look, Simmons. Durant will obviously be the best offensive player in the draft, but Oden is the best defensive player. And if Patrick Ewing had a Brandon Roy alongside him for 10 years, he might have won a title too. Oden doesn’t have to carry the team. He just has to carry the defense and get a lot of dunks. Roy will run the offense. Ewing didn't have it in him to be his team's Jordan on both ends of the court, but Oden won't have to.

Meanwhile, Durant rebounds well but plays average-at-best defense. Having a 2-3-4 of Roy-Durant-Randolph in Portland would be high-scoring and exciting and all, but a) how well will Randolph share the ball, b) how well will Durant share the ball (he did average like 1 assist a game at UT), c) Durant’s an up-tempo player, while Randolph most certainly is not, and d) where’s the defense?

Trading Randolph for a 3 (I’m still relatively confident this will happen) and having Aldridge/Oden in the post gives you a stiff defense for years to come. And being that Nate McMillan is a defensive-minded coach...well...

Oh, and Kevin Durant and his “There’s no way we’re losing this f-ing game” attitude carried a freshman-laden team to the 2nd round of the NCAA’s. Greg Oden and his “I play basketball because I'm bigger than everybody else” attitude carried a freshman-laden team to the NCAA finals. Yes, Oden had Conley, and yes, Ron Whatshisname bailed OSU out in the second round against Xavier, but still...Texas was average a good % of the year, and it wasn’t simply because Rick Barnes is a crappy coach.

Oh, and it sounds like Durant is leaning toward a major Adidas shoe deal. Portland = Nikeville. How’s THAT supposed to work??

Again, I'll be satisfied either way, and if Kevin Pritchard is so married to statistical analysis that he picks Durant, then I'll trust him (even though he's a Jayhawk) in that judgement--this kind of thinking is exactly what I want to see in a GM.

Have I mentioned how excited I am about tomorrow night, by the way? I look forward to the draft every year anyway, but this is something new. My team has the #1 pick and is looking to trade for another lottery pick (and he's willing to make jokes like "I want to break the record", in reference to the six draft day trades he made last year)...we've got HUGE names rumored to be moving (KG, Amare, maybe Marion, hell, maybe Kobe)...gonna be a fun night. Gonna be a REAL fun night. And after the draft, I get to start mentally preparing for the 2010 NBA Title.

I told you, I'm trying something new this year: optimism.

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Could it be Durant?

With the NBA draft just a day away, ESPN.com's John Hollinger has unveiled a mathematical formula that he claims is a useful predictor of success for collegians entering the league. I'm usually all over stuff like this because I prefer my evidence to be statistical, not anecdotal, objective, not subjective. I'm very much on the Moneyball side of the argument, believing that there are objective measures that are more trustworthy than our eyes. Still, I haven't quite wrapped my mind around Hollinger's formula. His greatest claim for the efficacy of his method is based on the 2002 draft, and there's no denying that the results were impressive. Carlos Boozer, who has been the most productive pro chosen that year, was selected with the 26th pick, but he was the clear number one in Hollinger's system. And Udonis Haslem, another solid pro who has been a starter since late in his rookie campaign, ranked eighth under the formula despite the fact that he went undrafted.

Still, I'm not sure that there's enough evidence yet to claim that the thing works. Hollinger has run numbers for only the past five drafts, and it's a little early to make judgments about players selected the past two years. But for 2003, the numbers have Mike Sweetney projected ahead of the likes of Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Kirk Hinrich and Josh Howard. Pity the GM who would have made that move. And Tyrus Thomas, who absolutely mopped the floor with the competition last year (his score was 756.8; number two was 583.1), hardly tore it up in his rookie season (four starts on the year, 5.2 points and 3.7 rebounds per game).

That said, the formula is an intriguing idea, and one thing jumps out of this year's projections: Kevin Durant crushes the competition. Durant's score (870.7) dwarfs the previous high in the five-year span (Carmelo's 781.3 in 2003), and totally eclipses second place finisher Greg Oden (667.9), the draft's presumptive top pick. In fact, the difference between Durant and Oden is as great as the difference between Oden and D.J. Strawberry, who ranks number 21.

Apparently, Durant had a sensational individual workout for the Trailblazers, who own the top pick, while Oden's effort was comparatively lackluster. And Portland GM Kevin Pritchard is a believer in SABRmetric-style analysis. He's using an algorithim designed by an MIT alum to assist him in the process.

Will the numbers be enough to overcome to temptation to draft a dominant center? Kevin Pritchard has the toughest job in the NBA today. Seattle GM Sam Presti, who'll be picking second, has the easiest.

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Monday, June 25, 2007

Mizzou Links, 6-25-07

I was intending to post when I was in OK...all I had going was shopping with the wife and going to my 10-year high school reunion...but my parents went and got themselves a corgi puppy...which killed any free time I thought I was going to have...but now I'm back, whether you like it or not!

  • Amidst the packing and driving and trying not to get struck by lightning, I forgot to give my take on a recent PowerMizzou piece that forecasts the second half of Mizzou's '08 football recruiting class. Honestly, this is shaping up to be the typical, unheralded-but-more-athletic-every-year class to which we're starting to get accustomed. The one difference is, we've missed out on two stud MO QB's in the last two classes, and we really, really need to nail down a Chase Daniel successor right here. Without a strong QB, this class will be seen as a failure, period. I'd love to see Mizzou take Rock Bridge's Jake Morse, but I'd prefer it if they took him along with a more proven commodity like Braden Hanson or Tyler Wilson.
  • Actually, I also forgot to mention that the film on Gahn McGaffie was fantastic. Am loving this kid already. He definitely doesn't have a thick frame by any means, but it doesn't really matter if nobody can get a hand on him.
  • Dave Matter continues to produce quality work this summer...here's his analysis of this year's football scheduling...
  • I love Bill Simmons. I'm pretty sure my sense of humor has slowly morphed into his over the last few years. But he and his "VP of Common Sense," with whom I normally agree, are overstepping the bounds a little here, suggesting that the only reason Oden will go over Durant is because GM's are chickens. Durant does indeed have a higher upside and a lower downside--there's never been a player like him, so it's hard to project what he's capable of. But if (IF) the Blazers can turn Zach Randolph into a decent SF or another lottery pick (and it sounds like that's what's going to happen), then picking Oden is a perfectly acceptable, brave move. They can start a lineup of 1) Jarrett Jack, Spanish Chocolate, or Mike Conley Jr. (they're trying to see if they can trade up and get him), 2) Brandon Roy, 3) ?, 4) LaMarcus Aldridge, and 5) Oden, and become a team that's both steady offensively (with Roy carrying the load) and fantastic defensively (with Aldridge and Oden doing their Duncan-Robinson impersonation). And they'd pretty much be set like that for the next decade. I'm not going to complain if they take Durant (and it sounds like he absolutely amazed Blazer officials with his workout last week), but let's not pretend like the case is so cut-and-dried, and only Bill Simmons sees the truth.

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Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Mizzou Links, 6-19-07

I'm running late today, so here are a couple quickies...

  • First up, yet another 2008 football commitment...good-sized kid, that's for sure.
  • Next, after destroying the California League, Max Scherzer has already been moved to AA...just 3 starts into his Arizona Diamondbacks career.
  • And finally...don't automatically assume Greg Oden is going to Portland. Kevin Pritchard is a number-cruncher (which I absolutely love), and at this point it sounds like he trusts the numbers more than his own gut. And after last year's draft, I trust the guy more than I've ever trusted a GM. I need to remind myself that he's also a former Jayhawk, so he's probably just setting me up for massive disappointment...

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Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Greg Oden: Even Better Than You Think

Any drama left about which of the two dominant prospects Portland will take with the first pick in the upcoming NBA draft evaporated with the results of the just-completed testing at the Orlando pre-draft camp.

Greg Oden has some flat-out freaky measurables, and he'll be the biggest thing to hit Rip City since Big Red's arrival in 1974.

The most surprising info from the camp, though: I can out-bench Kevin Durant, bringing the total of things I can do better than him to one.

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Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Huh... well, so much for my precentages...

Okay, so I figured Julian Wright was a stronger possibility to return to KU than Brandon Rush. Then someone told him, "Hey, you can make a couple million dollars next year." That's kind of a hard thing to pass up. I wish someone would have offered me a few million to leave college early.

That being said, it'll be tough to see him go. I don't think anyone really realized what was coming to Lawrence two years ago. It was such a whirl-wind recruitment, with Wright never stepping foot on campus until classes started, that I think it caught many fans off guard and didn't know what the expect out of Wright. Now, I think, fans are sad to see him go, but are quite thankful for all that he brought to the floor for Kansas.

Despite my thinking that Wright would be back in Lawrence next year, I'm not shocked that he decided to go pro. That I said, I think he is making a calculated risk given the other underclassmen coming out, including Durant, Oden (likely), B. Wright (possible), the entire Florida starting line-up, Afflalo, oh, and that 7-footer out of China. Now, obviously, Julian could suffer a devastating injury next year in college, but if he waited until next year, I think most people are of the opinion he would improve his standing by at least two spots since there are no players like Oden and Durant (despite Frank Martin's opinion of Michael Beasley) slated for the 2008 NBA Draft.

According to this story, Julian is looking to hire an agent before the draft in June, so I guess the possibility exists, slim as it is, that he could bomb out in Chicago and in one-on-one workouts, and return to KU. However, I'm pretty sure Bill Self is going to go forward with the idea that Julian will be playing for a pay-check next season. According to the LJWorld, Self is looking at a guard at... wait for it... the College of Southern Idaho. Brad Garrett, a 6-5 guard, who is probably more a fill-in for Rush leaving than Wright since KU already has a forward in the fold. He's #22 in the CSI Basketball media guide.

The other two draft question marks for KU in Mario Chalmers nd Darrell Arthur both committed to returning to KU last night at the annual team banquet. Plus, Sherron Collins who, as the newspaper article put it "had been the victim of ill-informed Internet message board posters who insisted he was transferring to DePaul in his hometown of Chicago," (How great is that line? Has there ever been a "well-informed Internet message board rumor"?) will also be returning to KU in the fall.

In conclusion, it'll be sad to see Wright go, but I think this will be an on-going trend with Bill Self as KU's head coach. He'll continue to load up on NBA caliber talent and that means there will be high turnover from year-to-year. I think I can handle that.

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