Here's a question: how in the hell do you make a Big 12 Power Poll right now? Is there any way to do it justice? The top two on everybody's list just lost to teams ranked between #7-10 on everybody's list...and one of them lost by 3 TD's at home. The North Division, the conference whipping boy for half a decade, rose up in a major way. Next weekend's two huge games just got downgraded, while a KU-KSU game is possibly the biggest game in the conference's first two weeks now.
HUH?
I decided to dare myself to create a Big 12 Power Poll this week...just because of the sheer 'degree of difficulty'...at first, I thought about just treating my 'Who's proven the most?' list from last week and treating it like an AP poll...bumping you down if you lose and bumping you up if you win. That would have resulted in something like this:
1. Kansas
2. Missouri
3. Kansas State
4. Oklahoma
5. Texas Tech
6. Colorado
7. Texas A&M
8. Texas
9. Nebraska
10. Oklahoma State
11. Baylor
12. Iowa State
Needless to say, that didn't work very well. I mean, it probably makes as much sense as anything else, but...yeah.
So here's what I'm going to do in attempt to make sense of all of this...for each team I'm going to 1) give my general thoughts, 2) talk about why they win games (when they win games), and 3) talk about how sustainable their methods of winning are...if that makes any sense. It will when I get started.
12. Iowa State
General thoughts. So far the Chizik Cyclones aren't too different from the McCarney Cyclones...which, I guess, make sense considering it's the same personnel. As they did quite a few times in 2006 (Mizzou game aside, grumble grumble), ISU put up a pretty decent fight for a half before their lack of talent and/or athleticism caught up with them in the second half.
Why they win games. They don't. But when they do, it seems to be when they have something extra to play for. They beat Iowa because it's their biggest rivalry game, and they always play Iowa well. They beat Missouri last year because it was Dan McCarney's last game (and because Monte Wyrick got called for holding on 4th-and-goal despite not actually touching anybody...but I'm trying to avoid going down that rant for the 78th time). They only time I can see them putting up an extra fight this year could be on Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe's Senior Day, which comes against Colorado. Watch that game. Until then? Yikes.
And yes, because I said that just now, this year's MU-ISU game will go into OT. I hate myself already.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Pretty sure I just covered this one. Not bloody likely.
11. Baylor
General thoughts. They put up a fight for a while against ATM, but they blew too many chances and eventually wore down.
Why they win games. Baylor got to 3-1 by utilizing their spread offense against defenses that weren't athletic enough to handle it.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? In a conference full of strong offenses and defenses with some semblance of speed? No, notsomuch. If a team makes some mistakes...turns the ball over a couple times...misses a tackle and gives up a big TD pass or something...then Baylor's got just enough talent to make them pay for it. But most likely it would have to be a series of mistakes...kind of what Oklahoma did against Colorado, only double. But after everything that went down yesterday, I can honestly say that stranger things have happened than a team losing to Baylor.
10. Oklahoma State
General thoughts. I realize it was just Sam Houston State, but if this win gets people to stop talking about Mike Gundy and Jenni Carlson, then it was one helluva win. I'M A MAN. I'M FORTY.
Why they win games. Big plays and a strong home field advantage.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Yes and no. They have another three tough-but-winnable home games (Texas, KU, KSU), and with Dantrell Savage apparently full speed, they've got a full arsenal of weapons at their disposal. But I just can't get over how many yards they gave up against Texas Tech (even Sam Houston pulled off 270 passing yards...albeit on 50 attempts). I know, I know...a Missouri fan talking about another defense giving up yards. Doesn't make just a ton of sense. But it's true. As bad as Mizzou's defense has been, OSU's has been worse, and that, plus the possible QB controversy, plus the trips to College Station, Norman, and Lincoln, doesn't lead to likely success.
9. Colorado
General thoughts. This is a very obvious thing to say, but...what a great win for them. They took advantage of every opportunity OU gave them (sans the missed FG early in the 4th quarter), and they used the strengths they have (quick defense, a healthy Hugh Charles) to their utmost advantage.
Why they win games. Quick defense and healthy Hugh Charles. Even last year, when the Buffs went 2-10, they rarely gave up big defensive plays. They use their quickness to keep the ball in front of them, and they make you drive the length of the field without making mistakes. Against an OU team with a freshman QB accustomed to making big plays, that was perfect. As for Hugh Charles...their O-line really hasn't been all that good for a while, but if they get him minimal blocking up front, he can use his phenomenal quickness to his advantage.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? I can see them going 5-3, which would put them in the range of the Alamo or Independence Bowl--quite a nice improvement from last year--but that's probably their ceiling. Charles will take quite a pounding over the course of the season, and his backups really aren't very strong. The defense will be strong, but the offense will likely put them in too many pressure situations. They'll force enough mistakes that it will be hard to blow them out--they eventually gave up points and yards to Arizona State, but that was after about 27 straight three-and-outs. In all, I love Charles, but I just don't think they have the offense to make a serious North Title run.
8. Texas Tech
General thoughts. Well, they're tied with OU and UT in conference record...that's a good thing, right?
Why they win games. They outscore their opponents. As many yards and points as they give up, they can usually count on gaining more and scoring more.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Doubtful...at least not when it comes to winning their division. I loooooooooooove Michael Crabtree, but...let's put it this way: when your defensive coordinator resigns mid-season, you're probably not going to reach lofty heights. There's nobody more fun to watch, though.
7. Kansas
General thoughts. Still have no idea what to think about them. That will be remedied next weekend when they travel to Manhattan.
Why they win games. So far, they've beaten teams by being a lot better than them. That's all we know for sure. It appears that Mangino has put together a team that makes few offensive mistakes and takes advantage of its defensive talent--ahem, Aqib Talib--and athleticism to make plays.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? I have absolutely no freaking idea. I think #7 might be way too low for them, but...well, the entire Big 12 script will change again in five days, so I don't want to think too hard about this.
6. Nebraska
General thoughts. The NU-ISU game started with the following results: fumble, fumble, FG, INT, punt, fumble, INT. Yes, NU ended up winning easily, and yes, half of those possessions were ISU's, but...EWWW. Sam Keller still makes some bad decisions--and being that he's halfway through his senior season, I'm pretty sure what you see is what you get on this one--and Marlon Lucky is very solid and very far from spectacular. The lineplay is...okay. The secondary is damn near dreadful. I know they'll get their yards and points against Mizzou, and the game will much closer than I would like it to be, but...they're shaky. Very shaky.
Why they win games. Screen passes and timely defensive stops. That's pretty much the recipe as far as I can tell.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Screen passes? Yes. I never understand how defenses repeatedly fall for that little "let the pass rusher through and dump it to the RB in the flat" play, but I've already mentally prepared myself for Marlon Lucky having 125 receiving yards Saturday night. Timely defensive stops? Playing with fire there. They haven't lost a single game they shouldn't so far this year, but they've toed the line. If Riley Skinner isn't hurt, Wake Forest beats Nebraska. If that Ball State WR doesn't momentarily go blind, the ball doesn't bounce off his helmet and Ball State beats NU. Hell, even ISU hung with them for a while. NU hasn't looked good since Week 1, and they could very easily be 2-3 right now, but they're not. They could very easily pull everything together and play just well enough to win the North again, but I'm not putting money on it right now.
5. Texas
General thoughts. Everybody cut them a lot of slack for struggling against Arkansas State and Central Florida, and justifiably so. They're Texas. They'll be ready when conference play starts, right? No. Colt McCoy is submerged in a major sophomore slump, and the defense still gives up quite a few untimely plays. Plus, after this last Saturday, the special teams unit is a mess.
Why they win games. Balanced offense, overpowering line play. Their pass defense has struggled for a while, but having strong weapons at offensive skill positions and lots of huge, talented hosses on the lines have usually been enough to procure a victory.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Probably, but it's not a given. I've been conditioned by the past 10 years or so to assume that Texas will right the ship just fine, but...it bears mentioning that these are the results for Texas' last 8 games:
1) road loss to K-State
2) home loss to ATM
3) underwhelming bowl win over Iowa
4) underwhelming home win over Arkansas State
5) home win over TCU
6) underwhelming road win over Central Florida
7) easy home win over Rice
8) home loss to K-State
In other words, they've really only looked like Texas in two of their last 8 games...and honestly, against TCU they didn't look good until the fourth quarter. I'm still cutting them some slack here and keeping them at #5, but...they have a lot to prove against OU this weekend.
4. Texas A&M
General thoughts. I had them at #2, but I just could not get out of my head a) their horrid performance in the Orange Bowl, b) Jorvorskie Lane pouting on the sidelines at the Orange Bowl, or c) the 'how could this not be illegal in some way?' Dennis Franchione antics that were uncovered this week. They're 1-0 in the South, and they could very easily make a nice run here...but there are so many shadows looming. So I bumped them down.
Why they win games. Run, run, run. Their defense is okay, their WR's are mediocre, and their O-line was exposed quite a bit against Miami. But they have the three-headed attack of Lane, Goodson, and Stephen McGee (and to a lesser extent now, freshman Keondra Smith), and they can still pummel you with them.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Well, yes, if the aforementioned shadows--and a brutal slate of road trips (Lubbock, Lincoln, Norman, Columbia)--don't sink them first.
3. Kansas State
General thoughts. The Beef put it well this morning: K-State has an "odd ownership" of Texas. I can't explain it, but they do. Texas did them a lot of favors (a LOT of favors), and I still can't stand Ron Prince, but that was a strong statement they made on Saturday. They played their game and won big in Austin doing so. Nothing wrong with that.
Why they win games. Pressure defense and throwing to Jordy Nelson. The RBs have been underwhelming so far--kick returns aside--but they haven't needed much yet.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? With their schedule? Yes. Now that they've conquered Austin, three of their next four games are at home (KU, CU, @OSU, Baylor). Following a trip to Ames for Game 6, they could honestly be 5-1 before finishing at Nebraska and at home against Mizzou. Suddenly the MU-NU game has had quite a bit of its thunder stolen by KU-KSU...and I don't appreciate it.
2. Missouri
General thoughts. I hate this pick already. I had Mizzou anywhere between #2 and #6, and I didn't like it no matter where I put them. So in the end, I just decided to take the homer route. At least I'm honest about it. I do find it amusing, by the way, that--with the shot that Bernie Miklasz took at him--only in Missouri does the head coach take heat in a week where his team didn't even play.
Why they win games. The best QB in the league, and the best WR/TE corps in the league. Throw in some timely bend-don't-break defense, and there's the formula. I mentioned 'timely defensive stops' as almost a bad thing for Nebraska, and yet here I have Mizzou ranked #2. What's the difference? Right now, the difference is Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker. Daniel has the improvisational skills that Graham Harrell lacks and the experience that Sam Bradford lacks. And the has the best TE in the country (not to mention the fifth-best TE in the country...give or take a couple spot) to throw to on third down.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Oy. I think so, but I'm hundreds of miles (and about eight weeks) away from being convinced. After this crazy weekend, the easier games just got harder, and the harder games just got easier. I could analyze every single minute reason why I'm nervous and worried and hand-wringy at the moment, but instead I'll just say that right now Mizzou's #2 in the conference, and about 139 different storylines could emerge over the next two months.
1. Oklahoma
General thoughts. Their freshman QB--and the prototypical trap game--overtook them Saturday, but let's not go crazy here. Top to bottom, they're still quite obviously the best team in the conference.
Why they win games. Skill and speed.
Are their winning reasons sustainable? Yes. They'll get every opponent's maximum effort, and their QB very much proved himself to be a freshman in Boulder Saturday, but they will still be able to beat just about every team in the conference on sheer skill and speed.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Thoughts on the Big 12...
Monday Musings
Wow was I ever in need of a bye week myself. Having been to all of the games so far, and with a crazy October on the way, the week off was lovely just for me if no one else. Crazy weekend though, not a great one for my favorite pro teams, but more on that later I suppose
Football:
So with the bye week for the football team, I guess I will spend a little time talking about the weekend that was both from a conference perspective and a national view as well. It was almost better that Mizzou did not play, for fear they would have been caught up in the insanity this past weekend. On the conference side, a few big wins were scored by the Big XII North with CU upsetting OU in Boulder and kSU further cementing their odd ownership of Texas. While it does bring some stature to the Big XII north, it also makes Mizzou’s road that much tougher as Atch pointed out in the comments yesterday. Being talked about all week from the view point of CU beating the #3 team, kSU beating a top ranked team, kU and MU still being undefeated and MU playing Nebraska in a prime time matchup is lovely for the oft-beaten down section of the conference. An interesting weekend is coming up with what may now be an elimination style playdown with MU/NU and kSU/kU with the winners sitting far better than the losers. Will be great to watch, that is for sure.
On the national side, I am not sure I have ever seen the type of movement in the polls like we saw this week. And yes, there were plenty of upsets to help that process, but there are still some inane moves going on in both polls. At the front of the line has to be South Florida, who just keeps winning, beat WVU at home on Friday night. That win, coupled with a number of losses got the Bulls moved from 18th to 6th. South Florida immediately becomes/is cemented as the feel good story of the season, much like Rutgers from last year. Only two currently ranked teams remain on their docket (Rutgers and Cincy), will be exciting to see where they end up. LSU overtook USC in the AP coming off of a win with a terribly sloppy half against Tulane. I guess that is better than the terribly sloppy game by USC in their win over Wash. A showdown for them is coming with Cal who did well with their matchup against highly ranked Oregon. Auburn picked themselves up off of the scrap heap and did a number on Florida, and I never thought I would see the day where S. Florida and Kentucky take up residence in the top 10. As The Boy texted me on Saturday, “Strange things are afoot at the Circle K”
Soccer:
Well, as The Boy posted about over the weekend, a tremendous effort by the team Friday in front of a ridiculously large (1,500+) crowd in Columbia for a thrilling 2 OT last second win over #4 aTm. I suppose with this win, coupled with the previous loss to #3 Santa Clara, we should be ranked #4 this coming week. J However, in the real world, I suppose this won’t happen. The ladies followed up that win with a great effort down in Waco and hung on for a 4-2 win over Baylor. Not too sure why the schedule now allows for split home-road weekends, but it makes for an even more impressive feat when a team can take both games.
Kristen Andrighetto is making a run at an All American spot with her play of late. Voted to the Soccer America Team last week, she followed that up with another amazing weekend. She scored her 8th goal of the season with just about 30 seconds remaining in the 2nd and final overtime on Friday night to take down the Aggies, and came back today with her 9th of the season in 10 games, with 6 assists and 24 total points. The sophomore will certainly be winning some additional honors this week, and keep an eye on Alysha Bonnick, the frosh who scored her 8th goal of the season against Baylor. Mizzou has already scored the same amount of goals they tallied all of last season, showing the offense has definitely been turned up. After their pending jump in the polls, the Tigers will head down to Lubbock on Friday night for their lone game of the weekend against Texas Tech, who have been so-so on the somewhat young season.
Volleyball:
Was there ever a doubt that if/when Mizzou won their first conference game that it would be in 5-set fashion? Mizzou did just that on Saturday night by taking down the #25 OU Sooners in Columbia in 5 sets, winning the last 15-13. The ladies made things harder on themselves than they needed to be, as they had 2 match points in the 3rd set, but could not capitalize on them before losing the set 35-33. After falling quickly in the 4th, they came out strong in the tie-breaker and never trailed before finally closing out the Sooners.
It is a key time for the ladies, as they have the chance now to string some wins together and begin to build back some of the confidence they surely lost with the pretty murderous start to their conference season. This week, they will take on CU, who is last in the conference at home on Wednesday night (on Fox Sports Midwest, which will be lovely). After that, they will travel back home to take on Texas Tech on Saturday. The time of that game has yet to be determined, but hopefully the AD will put it pretty early in the day so some of the early tailgaters (yours truly) can go to some of it during the afternoon before the football game that night. Hell, I say make it a dollar ticket or something and just let everyone come on in. At any rate, Tech is 2nd to last in the conference, so now would be the time for the ladies to get a couple of wins together and see what they can do about salvaging some of their season.
X-Country:
Both the men and the women participated in the Roy Griak Invitational, which is something of a pre-pre-national meet, with 26 teams participating and a very strong crop of schools. Mizzou had a pretty decent showing overall, with both teams taking 10th. The season continues to show a lot of promise, as the Tigers have many underclassmen making big contributions to the team and showing the future will remain bright for what is one of the steadiest programs at Mizzou. For the men, sophomore Dan Hedgecock led the Tigers with a 28th place finish. Junior Garret Jeffries and senior Billy Bell had great outings also for the Tigers, who came in 3rd among the other Big XII teams which participated.
For the ladies, junior Angela Portykus set a personal record and guided the women, and came in just ahead of freshman Kinsey Farren. Many of the lady harriers set great times where they also came in 3rd place among other Big XII schools participating. In the following weeks, the team will get a sneak preview of the course and site for the NCAA Championship, as they travel to Bradley University in two weeks for their Invitational event. That will lead right into the Pre-National meet not long after that. The X-Country season is a short one, but the Tigers have shown well thus far and will hopefully keep their season rolling along in the weeks to come.
Random Thoughts:
· Yes, my baseball team just completed one of the bigger flops/choke-jobs of all time this past weekend by getting blown out on the last day of the season and missing the playoffs entirely. The Mets will probably also miss out on having the MVP, though David Wright is a worthy choice, but I am just not so sure he will take it.
· Tony Romo is playing just fun football to watch
· That being said, WOW the Rams are bad. I believe their streak of offensive possessions without a TD is now over 30 straight drives.
· The Coors Light commercials with the football coaches and their PC’s used to be funny, but they are just trying too hard with the Bill Parcells’ versions.
· Holy Amazing Game on Thursday night with #11 South Carolina hosting #8 Kentucky. All told, there will be SEVEN games this coming weekend where both teams will be ranked. Looks like another crazy week ahead in poll movement
· Hockey season has started, though my team (the Devils) starts with a nine-game road trip as they await the completion of their new arena.
· Green Bay 4-0…strange
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Here's all I can think of...
...to make sense of what has happened today.
Going into this week, this would have been my Big 12 Defensive Rankings:
1. Oklahoma
2. Kansas State
3. Colorado
4. Texas
5. Kansas
6. Texas A&M
7. Missouri
8. Nebraska
9. Iowa State
10. Oklahoma State
11. Baylor
12. Texas Tech
Colorado won with turnovers and defense. Kansas State is about to win with turnovers and special teams. Going into this season, it was pretty well-established that almost the entire conference was having to rebuild its defensive line, and most teams had general inexperience littered throughout their defense. That being the case, it's starting to look like those who have thrown together some semblance of good defense (like KSU and CU) might have a leg up in a conference full of supposedly strong offenses (which would be bad for Mizzou).
That, or OU and UT were both just seriously looking ahead to next week.
I won't think too hard about this because I know that as soon as I think I've figured everything out, the entire script will change. But for now, go Big 12 North.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Thoughts on the Rest of the Big 12
I appear to be a day behind this week. Oh well. I'll blame it on the bye week.
Once again, ranked in order of those who have proven the most, not necessarily a “power poll” in the typical sense of the word.
1. Oklahoma
Odds are, this isn’t going to change any time soon. The Sooners have at least a little bit of a test this week, with Sam Bradford’s first true road game (needless to say, a few Sooner fans made the trip to Tulsa last weekend). Lucky for him, it will be in just about the least-hostile place imagineable, Boulder. The CU defense is good, but really all OU will need to do is score 20 to feel comfortable. Being that they’re averaging about 86 points per game, they should be able to pull that off.
Crimson and Cream Machine has a quick CU scouting report.
2. Kansas
Eventually KU will have to prove something against a living, breathing team, but so far doing exactly what is expected of you still garners a #2 spot in the rankings.
Rock Chalk Talk has a boatload of links and thoughts.
3. Texas
The fact that they pummeled a Rice team that was already 0-2 against the Big 12 (including an absolute whooping at the hands of Baylor), the fact that the ‘Horns dominated the Owls was not much of a surprise. However, they looked good, and they got one more week removed from their weak showings against Arkansas State and Central Florida, so I’ll stick them at #3.
Burnt Orange Nation thinks about K-State and (in particular) Ron Prince way too much for anybody's health.
4. Missouri
They still haven’t proven if their defense is Kansas-level mediocre or Tech/Nebraska-level bad. That distinguishing line could make the difference in the North division this year. We’ll see soon enough.
I’ll use this space as an opportunity to link to Big Head’s fun review of ESPN/ABC announcing crews.
5. Texas Tech
They lost to OSU, and I’m sticking them above both ATM and OSU? Weird, huh? Actually, five games into the season, we know exactly what we’re going to get from Tech the rest of the way. If you make a few stupid mistakes on offense, their offense is good enough that you’ll find yourself down 17 in a matter of seconds. If you control the ball and manage to get to Graham Harrell a couple times, you’ll probably beat them. Spots #6-10 on this list are full of nothing but unknowns and uncertainty, and the fact that you know what level of quality you’re going to get from Tech puts them at #5. For now.
According to Double T Nation, it looks like one of the first acts for new Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeill was to tear off a redshirt. Really, not a bad idea, especially since the Raiders get a tune up against NW’ern State this week.
6. Texas A&M
Well...Jorvorskie Lane could carry the ball 45 times for 250 yards and 6 TD’s against Baylor this Saturday...or last week’s nationally televised egg-laying could linger for a very long time. I have no idea what to expect from ATM from here on out, but we’ll tell a lot from their first half effort against Baylor.
7. Nebraska
I won’t even begin to pretend that Nebraska won’t gain 400+ yards of offense against us on October 6. I’ll just mention that if the NU defense puts up another effort like they did at home to the Ball State Fighting Whitlocks, Mizzou will put up 800+. I doubt the Blackshirts are quite as bad as they looked last Saturday—Bo Ruud still makes a big play at the precise second you start wondering if he’s the most overrated defender in the history of the Big 12, Ndamukong Suh is lining up to be a 2nd-team All Big 12 DT (behind Texas’ two DT’s), and...well, that’s all the platitudes I can give at the moment. But I still say I doubt they’re as bad as they let on. The ISU game will say a lot. ISU isn’t completely dead weight—they still have Todd Blythe—but an even mediocre defense should hold them to less than 300 yards.
Corn Blight over at Corn Nation quotes Steve Octavien and Richard Nixon in an attempt to convince himself that the defense has found a leader. I’m not 100% sure he’s wrong—only about 95%. Fact is, after years of following the Pittsburgh Pirates and a Quin Snyder-coached basketball team, I’ve read all about a “lack of energy and motivation in guys” before. Simply identifying and acknowledging it doesn’t make it go away.
8. Kansas State
I still have no faith in Josh Freeman or the ‘Cat O-line, but the defense will keep them in games. The fact that they seem to have a defense of any kind puts them above quite a few teams in the conference...problem is, the fact that they don’t have a potent offense drops them right back down. I still think they beat KU next weekend, though...though that opinion could change if they lay a big egg in Austin.
Bring On the Cats has a nice set of KSU-related links.
9. Oklahoma State
They’ll always be a great team at home, and they still have a ton of potential on the offensive side of the ball. However, no other WR has stepped up opposite Adarius Bowman, and until someone does, they won’t reach their potential. And to say their defense still has a long way to go is an understatement. That said, I’ve mentioned a couple of times that I liked Brandon Pettigrew, and man did he show why on that TD reception. That Tech safety (Garcia, I think) got juked out of his jock by a dude at least 50 pounds bigger than him...that’s gotta sting.
10. Colorado
Dominated most facets of the game against a MAC team that is a shadow of its former (i.e. Roethlisberger) self. This was a KU-type game—they really didn’t prove much, but they did exactly what they were supposed to do and looked good in the process. Can’t really ask for more than that, right?
I still don’t see how they gain more than 200 yards against OU’s defense, though. Time to prove something, Cody Hawkins-Nolte.
Buffs.tv has its own OU-CU preview...and OU shouldn't even bother showing up because CU is 8-2-1 all-time on 9/29. It's as good as in the bag.
11. Baylor
A 3-game winning streak will give you confidence no matter who those three wins came against, and that streak, combined with the fact that ATM might (or might not) be in turmoil at the moment, gives the Bears their best upset chance of the year. It probably won’t happen, and I can’t make myself actually predict it, but I keep dropping just enough hints that I can say “I told you so!” if it does.
BearMeat presents: Fear, Loathing and Football In The Savage Heart of the University at Buffalo.
12. Iowa State
You do figure ISU will overachieve some Saturday during conference season, and they might scrounge up a win somewhere (most likely candidates: home games against CU and KSU late in the year). However, that win probably won’t come in Lincoln, no matter how bad the Huskers looked last week. And as I mentioned in the Roundtable yesterday...the fact that they blew a 2-TD lead against Toledo last week without the Toledo offense seeing the field is quite impressive.
Clone Chronicles hands out the grades.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Monday, September 17, 2007
Thoughts on the Rest of the Big 12...
1. Oklahoma
I was actually a bit shocked that a) they gave up a field goal, and b) they didn’t score 60. Sam Bradford even threw an INT! They stink!
Crimson & Cream Machine gives out the grades.
2. Kansas
They’ve done exactly what they should do so far, and sadly that’s enough to get them the #2 slot in the conference. Again, this isn’t any kind of prediction or ‘power poll’ or anything...this is simply a ranking of who’s proven themselves the most so far.
3. Missouri
I feel like I’m a homer for this—and I’m sure I am—but Texas has played two teams no better than Illinois or Ole Miss and sweat their wins out even more than we did. The defense is still a bit frightening, but the offense has an even higher ceiling than I thought. The O-line is horrid against Illinois, and we put up over 400 yards and 40 points. The short yardage game is poor, and receivers drop some passes against Ole Miss, and we put up over 500 yards and 38 points. Chase Daniel has his shakiest game since last year against Nebraska, and we put up over 600 yards and 52 points.
Every True Son with the Good, Bad, and Indifferent.
4. Texas
I’m still not all that worried about them, but I’m pretty sure recovering on-side kicks to clinch wins over Arkansas State and Central Florida really wasn’t in the cards.
Burnt Orange Nation hits 10 out of 10 on the Oklahoma Fear Factor.
5. Texas A&M
Bounced back after an poor performance versus Fresno State.
6. Nebraska
Nebraska appears to be a team that will take advantage of their opponents’ weaknesses but not create any weaknesses or mismatches of their own. That’s a strange, vague thing to say, but...that’s really the only way I can think to put it. Against a team with weaknesses—like Mizzou’s run defense, for instance—they’ll put up good numbers. However, if you have a solid front seven, they’re not going to run the ball well. If you have a solid pass rush or cover skills, they’re not going to throw the ball well. They’ll take what you give them, and nothing more. When they play a team with few weaknesses—like USC—they’ll get pummeled.
Oh, and in case you were wondering...those 389 yards Sam Keller passed for against USC? 169 of those came in the fourth quarter. He was 22-35-2-220 (0) the first three quarters (passer rating: a decent 104.22), and 14-19-0-169 (2) in the fourth (passer rating: 183.14), which started with USC up 42-10. Just so you know.
Husker Mike from Corn Nation is, shall we say, unimpressed with NU, Callahan, and everyone else involved.
7. Texas Tech
Poor Rice...they probably thought they were doing a good job in keeping up wth Texas Tech’s potent offense, as the score was 21-17 Tech halfway through the second quarter. Fifteen minutes later, however, it as 49-17. In other words, this was pretty much the typical Tech win.
Oh, and Michael Crabtree might be the real deal. The 6’3 redshirt freshman had 11 catches for 244 yards and 3 TD’s. He’s officially on pace for 152 catches, 2152 yards, and 32 TD’s this year. Pretty sure that would be, like, a record or something.
Double T Nation gives out the conflicted grades...
8. Kansas State
When I saw that Jordy Nelson had 15 catches and 200+ yards in KSU’s 61-10 win over SMS, the first thing I did was find the box score to see how many of those catches came in the fourth quarter, when he shouldn’t have even been in the game. To Ron Prince’s credit (I believe that’s the first time I ever typed those words), he only had one fourth quarter catch (for 2 yards).
Meanwhile, that Auburn loss keeps looking worse and worse.
TB from Bring On the Cats has a nice recap of both the KSU game and the Big 12's weekend as a whole.
9. Colorado
It took ESPN announcers almost a full two quarters to realize that all of the “great play-calling” by CU Coach Nick Nolte wasn’t putting points on the board, and that the fact that Cody Hawkins (sorry, guess that would be Cody Nolte) can “make every throw” doesn’t mean he can make every throw accurately, at the right time or place. I like how CU’s defense seems to swarm to the ball, though I was also encouraged by the fact that a lot of FSU’s success came when they spread the defense and, well, used quite a few plays that are also in the Mizzou playbook. Not sure why FSU didn’t do more of that, but whatever. Mizzou probably won’t run for very much at all when they play CU in Boulder, but the passing offense should click along just fine.
Buffs.tv laments missed opportunities.
10. Oklahoma State
During Friday night’s blowout loss at Troy, there was a point in the third quarter when Troy was stalling, and a big play from OSU could lead to a huge comeback. Zac Robinson—starting for a relatively ineffective and at least slightly injured Bobby Reid—threw an off-balance but gorgeous bomb to All-American Adarius Bowman, hitting him in stride for a sure TD...and Bowman dropped it. Ballgame.
I read article after article this offseason about how Bobby Reid had matured into the expectations set for him and was ready for a big year. Two games into the season, Reid lost his starting job to a mediocre-at-best Robinson, and OSU got massacred by Troy to fall to 1-2 on the season. I was ready to believe that OSU was prepped for a big season, but now they’re going to have to fight to win six games. Robinson’s got potential, but the offense has a much lower ceiling with him in the game, and since the optimistic predictions for OSU were based on the explosive offense...well...things don’t look good.
11. Baylor
After pummeling Rice last week, I’m pretty sure the Bears didn’t expect to have to fight tooth-and-nail to beat the former SW Texas State. To their credit, though, they responded to the relatively unexpected challenge and made the plays they needed to make. Blake Szymanski (a.k.a. Blizzle Szyzzle) has responded nicely after a horrid season opener against TCU to put up 823 yards, 11 TD’s, and 2 INT’s against Rice and Texas State. He gets one more tuneup before he has to face another real defense (ATM in College Station).
12. Iowa State
So I guess this means Northern Iowa is the #1 team in the state? Power to the ‘Clones for not completely folding on the season—they always play Iowa well—and for their sake, here’s to hoping they play well against Toledo this coming week.
Apparently the win was so big that it not only knocked out CrossCyed's Internet connection but also caused this fantastic (and extremely R-rated) meltdown.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Thoughts on the Rest of the Big 12 (Week 2)
Ranked in order of who’s proven the most...
1. Oklahoma
Holy crap. If they hadn’t fumbled twice while driving, this score could have been even worse. Even without a dominant running game, they moved the ball on a (supposedly) excellent defense all day long. I was watching Sam Bradford as critically as possible on Saturday, and really the only critique of him I could muster is that he telegraphs his passes a bit too much. So far, he’s been so accurate with those passes that it didn’t matter, but that might jump up and bite him at some point. Still, though...wow...they were supposed to beat Miami-FL on Saturday...but nobody (not even OU people) picked them to put up 50 on them. Upset bids are happening everywhere you look, but not in Norman. They’re the second-most impressive team in the country right now, behind only LSU.
Crimson and Cream Machine projects a wee bit...and starts looking at the BCS...
2. Texas
Had proven absolutely nothing in their first six quarters of the season, but the switch was flipped in the second half against TCU. Usually I make teams prove more than this before assuming the ship has been righted, but this is Texas. They'll get the benefit of the doubt until they pull a 2007 Michigan on us. They have three more games (at UCF, Rice, Kansas State) to find fifth gear for the Red River Rivalry.
Burnt Orange Nation reviews the UT offense and defense.
3. Nebraska
So far Nebraska has proven that they will probably beat the teams worse than them and lose to the teams better than them. I know...really deep analysis there...but as I mentioned on my ‘Scouting Report’ post on Saturday, they have talent, but they don’t have someone who can make something out of nothing. If your D-Line isn’t better than their O-line, Sam Keller and Marlon Lucky will tear you up. If it’s not, you don’t have much to worry about. If you have a solid gameplan and a composed QB, you can rack up some yards on them. If you don’t (as Wake Forest didn’t), they’ll force some mistakes out of you. Their talent level is such that they’ll have a really strong record this year, but they’re not what I would call an elite team. They’re really of no danger to the USC’s and Texas’s of the world at this point. Of course, watch them prove me wrong this coming Saturday.
Corn Nation with some quick hits.
4. Kansas
They faced two bad teams and whipped them both. No telling how good KU actually is, but they’ve done their job both weeks, and they haven’t lollygaggeed (lollygaggers!) in doing so...unlike most of the conference outside Norman.
Rock Chalk Talk is PUMPED UP!
5. Texas Tech
Not sure what to think about the UTEP game. UTEP shouldn’t have provided as much of a challenge as they did, but a) Tech still won, and b) Michael Crabtree emerged as Joel Filani’s replacement as go-to WR. As I’ve said before, Danny Amendola is great as a #2 or #3 guy, but if he’s your #1, you’re going to struggle at some point. With Crabtree assuming the #1 role, things might be looking up for Tech.
Double T Nation with a Tech Report Card.
6. Missouri
They’ve proven three things so far: 1) their offense is murderous (they’ve only been able to run the ball in 2 of 8 quarters so far, and they’re averaging 500 yards a game), 2) their D-Line is as bad as we feared, and 3) they’re professional lollygaggers during the period between minutes #35 and #50 of a game. But they’ve proven more than...
7. Texas A&M
...this team, which really doesn’t have an excuse to have almost lost at home to Fresno State. FSU is supposedly better this year than the last couple, but ATM’s defense was far too porous. They don’t have as many question marks as Tech or (probably) Mizzou in that category, but the fact is, Mizzou farted around away from home but won by 6 and 13. ATM farted around and almost lost at home.
ATM also proved, however, that you really shouldn’t go into a 3rd OT period with them—they’ll just crush you with Jorvorskie Lane at that point.
The 12th Manchild with some postgame quotes.
8. Kansas State
The close Auburn loss looks a little less impressive after South Florida was able to go in and finish the job, but the ‘Cats did exactly what they needed to do against a not-good-but-not-terrible San Jose State squad, so kudos for that.
Bring On the Cats with a Game Wrap-up.
9. Oklahoma State
Georgia’s poor offensive performance against South Carolina makes you think that OSU’s defense is right there alongside that of Tech and Mizzou so far. That said, they did TCB against Schnellenburger Atlantic, and I still expect big things (okay...maybe not big...maybe mid-sized) out of the ‘Pokes this year.
Still no blog presence in Stillwater.
10. Colorado
CSU made Colorado look pretty good by hanging with California all the way to the end, but Colorado made Colorado look quite poor in the final three quarters of a 33-14 Arizona State pasting of the Buffs. CU jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, but their offense completely and utterly failed, putting up only 204 yards.
Buffs.tv with the post-mortem. Good to see that Dennis Erickson teams immediately turn thuggish. Seven personal fouls? Come on...
11. Baylor
Blake Szymanski with the first strong game of his career. Only took about 8 starts. Hope Rice enjoyed that bowl game last year.
BearMeat has more on Blizzle Szyizzle’s big game.
12. Iowa State
I almost jokingly picked Northern Iowa in this game. Oops. Suddenly Bret Meyer might only have one or two starts left before the reins are handed to Austin Arnaud...and suddenly 0-12 enters the realm of serious possibility.
Clone Chronicles takes a look at the ugly ugliness.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Stats Stats Stats: 2006 (WR/TE)
When we last left off last week, we’d perused 2006 data for Big 12 RB’s in regard to success rates, et al. Now we’ll do the same thing for WR’s and TE’s.
Again, all of the following data is from only Big 12 games, and only from circumstances in which the score of the game is within 17 points. To qualify for the list, you have to have caught at least 10 passes.
I will look at the same criteria I did for RB’s:
1. Total number of successful plays. This simply measures consistency throughout the course of a season. For Big 12 WR’s that fit the criteria, the average was 19.1.There were 33 Big 12 WR’s that fit the above criteria, and here they are (those in bold are 2007 returnees):
2. Success Rate (% of plays in which they touched the ball—rushing or receiving—that resulted in a success, as defined in last week’s QB post). This measures effectivness and efficiency. The Big average in this category was 80.4%...as expected, much higher than that of RB’s (46.6%). Considering that almost half of all passes are incomplete (and therefore unsuccessful), this seems pretty logical.
3. Average % of Success (comparing what they gained on each play as a percentage of what was defined as successful for the given play...a 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 would be 150% success. I cap the success at 1000% for any given play). This measures playmaking and explosiveness. For WR’s, the average was 278%, compared to a 142% average for RB’s.
1. Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State (33 successful plays / 91.7% success rate / 382% average success)Thoughts...
2. Joel Filani, Texas Tech (44 / 89.8% / 320%)
3. Maurice Purify, Nebraska (23 / 88.5% / 364%)
4. D’Juan Woods, Oklahoma State (25 / 92.6% / 310%)
5. Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma (39 / 88.6% / 287%)
6. Will Franklin, Missouri (22 / 88.0% / 336%)
7. Quan Cosby, Texas (24 / 92.3% / 263%)
8. Todd Blythe, Iowa State (15 / 93.8% / 323%)
9. Jarrett Hicks, Texas Tech (18 / 85.7% / 323%)
10. Limas Sweed, Texas (19 / 73.1% / 321%)
11. Dominique Zeigler, Baylor (25 / 73.5% / 280%)
12. Robert Johnson, Texas Tech (33 / 80.5% / 253%)
13. Terrance Nunn, Nebraska (21 / 78.6% / 275%)
14. Alvin Barnett, Colorado (12 / 92.3% / 338%)
15. Yamon Figurs, Kansas State (16 / 76.2% / 318%)
16. Manuel Johnson, Oklahoma (24 / 88.9% / 200%)
17. Trent Shelton, Baylor (15 / 71.4% / 304%)
18. Tommy Saunders, Missouri (16 / 84.2% / 251%)
19. Danny Amendola, Texas Tech (17 / 70.8% / 293%)
20. Jared Perry, Missouri (20 / 76.9% / 233%)
21. Daniel Gonzalez, Kansas State (10 / 76.9% / 368%)
22. Jordy Nelson, Kansas State (13 / 76.5% / 292%)
23. Todd Peterson, Nebraska (12 / 85.7% / 271%)
24. Chad Schroeder, Texas A&M (18 / 72.0% / 228%)
25. Joachin Iglesias, Oklahoma (14 / 73.7% / 252%)
26. Thomas White, Baylor (13 / 76.5% / 251%)
27. Dexton Fields, Kansas (18 / 78.3% / 185%)
28. Billy Pittman, Texas (14 / 66.7% / 239%)
29. Eric Morris, Texas Tech (10 / 62.5% / 274%...was part-time RB)
30. Brad Ekwerekwu, Missouri (11 / 61.1% / 255%)
31. Brian Murph, Kansas (12 / 54.5% / 210%)
32. Earvin Taylor, Texas A&M (11 / 73.3% / 172%)
33. Jon Davis, Iowa State (13 / 86.7% / 61%)
• D’Juan Woods was a forgotten man last year at OSU after Adarius Bowman emerged the way he did, but it looks like he played a vital role. Bowman was a big-play guy, but Woods always managed to get what was necessary when teams keyed on AB. Against UGa, no WR emerged to fill that role—TE Brandon Pettigrew did his best, but if he’s the #2 option, then a chunk of OSU’s explosiveness is negated.
• Tech’s WR’s are such a nameless attack overall that I didn’t realize Filani was that much more accomplished than Hicks, Johnson, Amendola, etc.
• Todd Blythe caught only 15 passes in Big 12 play when the score was within 17 points, while the entirely ineffective Jon Davis caugh 13. That really does suggest that the best defense against Blythe is having Bret Meyer at QB. The dude’s 6’5, and you have no other weapons. Even if he’s double-covered, just throw a jump ball. It’s the only hope you have on offense.
• Jordy Nelson was criminally underused last season, though the case for his being injured (when he was thrown the ball last season, he was less effective than the mediocre Daniel Gonzalez) seems pretty strong here. And seeing how many times Josh Freeman threw him the ball last weekend, the case for his being healthy now is quite strong.
• If Will Franklin hadn’t been hurt for most of the last two games, he’d have almost certainly ended up #3 on this list.
• Since Limas Sweed has been the #1 guy at UT for something approaching 17 years now, it was surprising to see that a) Quan Cosby seemed to be the Go-To guy last year (possibly because Sweed was double-covered?), and b) when Sweed did catch the ball, he had a success rate lower than Yamon Figurs and Joachin Iglesias.
Now, on to TE’s. I bumped the critera for TE’s down to 7 touches (the other criteria stayed the same) so we could end up with at least 10 TE’s on the list. The average figures for TE’s on this list were...
Successful Plays: 13.7 Success Rate: 80.1% Average % of Success: 263%
Here are the TE’s who made the list:
1. Martin Rucker, Missouri (21 / 91.3% / 269%)Thoughts...
2. Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State (11 / 84.6% / 312%)
3. Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M (21 / 84.0% / 264%)
4. Chase Coffman, Missouri (25 / 75.8% / 280%)
5. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas State (10 / 100.0% / 345%)
6. Joe Jon Finley, Oklahoma (10 / 83.3% / 260%)
7. Jermichael Finley, Texas (11 / 78.6% / 228%)
8. Derek Fine, Kansas (10 / 90.9% / 233%)
9. Rashaad Norwood, Kansas State (11 / 61.1% / 216%)
10. Riar Geer, Colorado (7 / 58.3% / 229%)
• Assuming Rashaad Norwood is unsuspended at some point, all 10 of these TE’s return in 2007. That’s impressive in and of itself.
• After railing against Martellus Bennett for most of the offseason, I’ll eat a smidge of crow here, ahem, and mention that his numbers were quite comparable to Rucker and Coffman. But they still weren’t better!
• Norwood’s suspension wouldn’t seem to hurt much since Mastrud caught almost as many passes and was far more effective. Mastrud caught four passes against Auburn, a solid start.
• As I mentioned earlier, Pettigrew was a big target for Bobby Reid in the opening game, and I’m thinking he’ll end up with more than 11 successful plays in 2007.
• The wildcard for 2007 is OU’s Jermaine Gresham, who is full speed (he was coming off of a knee injury last year) and running like a WR. I doubt any conference can even hold a candle to the TE production put out by the Big 12 this year.
Mizzou Sanity Roundtable: Week 1 in Review
1) What was the most impressive thing about your team's performance on Saturday?
2) Least impressive?
3) Predictions for your team's game this Saturday.
(Obviously I say 'your team' because we don't all root for Mizzou here.)
---
ZouDave: Most impressive - Jeremy Maclin. First game of his college career and he gets a receiving TD, punt return TD, and a huge run on a reverse. And now he gets to become a go-to guy for the team as he steps up to replace Danario Alexander. He may have set the bar too high for himself, but man what an opening performance. Maybe in 4 years we'll be remembering this 2007 Illinois game as Maclin's "Coming Out Party" much like 2002 was for Brad Smith.
Least impressive - the running game. I know Illinois is a good team and all but for crying out loud, we return a 1000-yard rusher from a year ago with almost the same offensive line and this is what we get out of our running game? That's part of the reason we couldn't keep this game out of reach when we got the ball back up 37-20 in the 3rd. Strong doses of Tony Temple should have been all that was necessary to make it into a snoozer, but instead we're trying to get cute with reverses or still relying on the pass when their defense basically has nothing to lose.
Prediction for Saturday - Missouri starts to get better, faces a team not quite as physical and takes the gun off of our own foot. Chase Daniel keeps doing what he's doing, which is throwing TDs and not getting intercepted, Temple and the O-Line make a bit of statement with a 100-yard day from him and the defense isn't put in a position to defend short fields quite as often. And there are no 2-point conversion attempts in the game. Mizzou 44, Ole Miss 17.The Beef: Most Impressive: I will go with Pig Brown. Pig made a few big plays last year, but obviously nothing quite like this. He certainly will not repeat that performance in each game, but it should certainly scare some people into going away from him, and any time people game plan to go away from someone on your defense, I think that is a good thing. One small side-mention to the INITIAL defensive game plan as being impressive….Ill did next to nothing on offense before the injury and quarterback replacement.
Doug: 1) Kansas turned in a team effort Saturday against Central Michigan, and that was by far the most impressive thing about the game. Normally you might expect a few gaffes, mistakes and errors that come with the first game of the season, not to mention a new starting quarterback and running backs. Instead, KU turned in a fantastic performance, highlighted by Todd Reesing throwing for 261 yards and 4 touchdowns, Brandon McAnderson running roughshod over the Chippewas for 110 yards ( in the first half), and 10 Jayhawks catching passes. The defense was just as stellar, allowing only 139 rushing yards total and no Chippewa broke 50 individually. Plus, quarterback Dan LaFevour threw for only 172 yards and a late-game touchdown while being sacked twice.
Least Impressive: The offensive line. I do not put Temple’s bad output so much on Temple himself, but on the line’s inability to deal with the stunting and shifting Ill threw at them. A mediocre performance all the way around (I will not say poor since we did amass 400+ total yards on offense).
Prediction for Saturday: I think Dave really said it all. I looked at the Ole Miss stats and some news from it, and I come away not impressed…it was not a TRUE road win as I am sure they had half the crowd in Memphis and their offense is pretty non-existent at this point. We do need some more pressure on the QB, since I do not believe Adams is all the mobile, but we should REALLY stack the box against them and force them to beat us on the pass. Everything else Dave said is pretty much what I would say…and I will have some more LIVE-IN PERSON ON THE SCENE THOUGHTS about it next week (was that enough rubbing it in the face of everyone else that I am going to the game?)
This was a game people expected Kansas to win, but it was supposed to be closer. CMU was coming off a MAC title and a Motor City Bowl victory. Kansas was supposed to be adjusting to a new quarterback and life without Jon Cornish. To put up this decisive of a victory should give Kansas fans hope for the coming weeks.
2) Raimond Pendleton who did everything right in his punt return for a touchdown, right up until the five yard line when he decided to go air-born into the end zone and wound up getting flagged 15 yards for un-sportsman-like conduct. And, oh yes, left us with this photo. What the hell is that?
3) After Saturday's performance, this week's game against D-IAA opponent Southeast Louisiana would seem to be a quintessential trap game. Except for one thing, the Michigan Wolverines... thanks, guys! Fair to say, I don't think any D-I school will take any other D-IAA school lightly the rest of the season.
Kansas 42 SE Louisiana 3Michael Atchison: 1) What was the most impressive thing about your team's performance on Saturday? Their sense of drama. Overall, it was such a scattershot effort that it’s hard to point to anything the team did consistently well. But the sheer number of spectacular moments (both good and bad) was hard to fathom. Maclin’s two scores. Daniel’s quick recovery after being knocked looney tunes. The adventures in kicking. And, of course, Pig Brown. Quick, name another defensive player who has had such a dramatic hand in the outcome of a game as Brown did. Time’s up.
The Beef: Well damn...that might be the fastest we have ever or will ever go around the table...under 2 hours…even though doug did not answer ANY of his questions correctly.
2) Least impressive? The run-blocking disaster has been mentioned by others, so I’ll say the offense’s inability to finish drives. For as much as the offense moved the ball, they really only accounted for twenty-four points. Too many drives disintegrated once they reached Illinois territory, and the offense went the last twenty-seven minutes of the game without putting the ball in the end zone.
And can I beat a dead horse here for a minute? Gary Pinkel is a smart guy who knows more about football than I ever will, but I’m still completely incredulous about the two-point try, even after he acknowledged that it was a mistake. He has allowed “the chart” to become a proxy for rational thought. Even consulting “the chart” in the first half of a close game is an abdication of reason that ignores the context of the game. A basketball team would never try a desperation three-pointer because they trailed 30-27 with two minutes left in the first half; the score is going to change too much and in too many unpredictable ways. Football is no different. Here’s my suggestion: Burn the chart, and keep in mind a few simple rules. Don’t think about the two-point conversion until there are less than ten minutes left in the game. If you’re behind, and scoring two points would cut the lead to eleven, eight, seven or three points, do it. If it would tie the score, do it. If it would increase your lead to seven points, do it. Otherwise, forget it.
3) Predictions for your team's game this Saturday. I think the offense puts together a more consistent performance, and I think the defense does enough. Missouri 38, Ole Miss 24.The Boy: Seriously...well done...in that case, here's another question:
The Beef: Most impressive thing I saw (and I did not SEE any of it) was probably the OU thing….not so much because of the final score, or even the fact that OU has a good amount of YOUNG skill position players on offense, but that they did it with their foot off of the gas for most of the 4th…as I believe that last TD came pretty early. kU is in there as well…though I think their true test will come in conference play given their OOC)
4) Most and least impressive thing about some other Big 12 team from last weekend?
Oh, and here are my answers to #1-3...
1) I'm going to say the defensive playmaking. Yards allowed were, to put it gently, a bit of a problem. A lot of that had to do with the strange advantage they drew from the fact that nobody could have scouted Eddie McGee (he was a complete unknown, a la Brad Smith in 2002), and a lot was due simply to lapses, but when it was time to make a play, the defense continuously came through, from Weatherspoon's strip of McGee at the 2 (which led to Pig Brown's TD), to William Moore's gorgeous diving INT midway through the 4th quarter, to Brown's game-clinching INT with a minute left. And beyond that, as has been pointed out before, the scouting report on Juice Williams was good. I do think this defense has a decent amount of potential, though they don't have too terribly long to prove me right on that one.
2) Going last has its drawbacks--I was going to say either the O-line or the two-point conversion. So instead I'll just mention that Will Franklin didn't have a very good game, and with Danario Alexander out for the forseeable future ( please let him be back for Nebraska), he'll need to become the go-to guy once again to keep the pressure off of Jeremy Maclin.
3) It won't surprise me if Ole Miss does try to replicate what Illinois did to us schematically, but they just don't have the speed of the Illini. And if 425 yards was a failure, then...well...Ole Miss is going to need some turnovers and freak plays to keep up. And hopefully the fact that there were about 26 freakish plays (for and against Mizzou) last Saturday, this one will be a little more tame. Mizzou 34, Ole Miss 17.
Least impressive would have to be UT I suppose…again…on score only. Big spreads were not locks this weekend (as USC came nowhere near hitting theirs) and I assume UT is not that bad…but it was still interesting to see. Okie State was pretty unimpressive as well given where a lot of people had them, though I personally did not understand some of the hype.ZouDave: Most Impressive - Well, I would say ku laying a beating on Central Michigan but I'm simply never going to be nice to ku, so I'll actually go ahead and say Kansas State's defense. Seriously, they looked fast, aggressive, mean and talented. They're going to be one of the best defenses in the conference this year and that will help their offense more often than not. KSU might be the polar opposite of Missouri this year. That remains to be seen for sure, obviously, but looking at a single game you had one struggle to win with their offense doing most of the work and one struggling to lose with their defense doing most of the work. I was very impressed with KSU's defense.
Doug: 4) Oklahoma proved they would not miss a beat when it came to breaking in a new quarterback and running back. Even beating up on a DI floormat like they did to North Texas becomes incredibly impressive when they do it to such a magnitude. Seriously, best of luck Todd Dodge.
Least Impressive - Iowa State. They lost to Kent State, for crying out loud. The only way it gets worse is if Michigan is in our conference, which they're not.
Also impressive, Colorado finally winning the CSU rivalry game, if anything that buys Dan Hawkins so good will ... Kansas State hanging with Auburn for three quarters (though to be fair, I think that had more to do with Auburn horrific offensive play-calling) ... Kansas' new uniforms, I'll admit I wasn't sold initially, but now seeing them in action, they are quite impressive looking, now if they would just stick around for a couple of seasons.
Least impressive goes to the Texas Longhorns who should have had a much easier time with Arkansas State. I'm sure Mack Brown will get the kinks ironed out, but that's the kind of performance you do not expect from Texas.
Also on the "not impressive" list... K-State's forgetting that a football game last four quarters ... Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, yeah ... that chart in Gary Pinkel's back pocketMichael Atchison: The only other Big 12 action I saw at all this weekend was the second half of the Kansas State-Auburn game, and I was impressed by how poised K-State looked in that environment. They stood toe to toe with Auburn like they expected to win, and they easily could have. The least impressive (strictly statistically speaking) had to be Sam Keller, who (despite the predictions of the faithful) failed to establish any of Nebraska’s career passing records in the win over Nevada. He’s on pace to be a poor man’s Harrison Beck.
The Boy: I more or less answered my own question yesterday, so I'll simply add this: since Marlon Lucky is obviously going to win Heisman #1 this year (followed by, presumably, #2 in 2008), do you think they'll give Sam Keller another couple years of eligibility so he can win the award that is so rightfully his in 2009? Or...can they maybe award Co-Heismans?
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Thoughts on the rest of the Big 12...
...written in order from most impressive (in accordance with expectations) to least...nothing about Mizzou here, but I'd put them around #8 on the list...
1. Oklahoma (embarrassed North Texas, 79-10): Well, North Texas might be really really bad (they probably are...apparently Todd Dodge is redshirting all of his newcomers, sacrificing any semblance of competitiveness this season for future depth), but that was still a sickeningly effective performance from OU. A (very biased) buddy of mine at the game said that that was easily the fastest OU team he's seen in a long time. After one game, OU is in fourth gear while UT's only in 2nd, but obviously things change.
Crimson and Cream Machine has more.
2. Kansas (crushed Central Michigan, 52-7): Now, I didn't expect much out of Central Michigan this year--they lost a lot of players (and coaches) from last year's MAC championship team. But I didn't expect them to get pasted like this. Todd Reesing, of course, showed how smart I am for saying Kerry Meier should start by throwing for 252 yards and 4 TD's. He's terrible. KU has a cupcake game this week (SE Louisiana) before an at least somewhat harder game against Toledo (who got whooped by Purdue yesterday) in two weeks.
Rock Chalk Talk gives out report cards.
And just for fun...also from Rock Chalk Talk...Mangino blows a gasket...holy crap...
3. Nebraska (spanked Nevada, 52-10): This was a close game for about 25 minutes before Nevada's defense began to wilt under the impressive presence of Nebraska's O-line. When I think of NU's O-line, I still have the same image of the 2005 MU-NU game, when Zac Taylor got massacred repeatedly for most of the 2nd half. They've obviously improved now, and they really made the difference in the game. Marlon Lucky had 266 total yards and 4 TD's, and while I'm sure some of that was his own talent, every highlight I saw had him running untouched for 20 yards thanks to fantastic blocking.
Meanwhile, Sam "Jesus" Keller didn't exactly have a promising start to his surefire Heisman campaign (193 yards, 1 TD, and an INT returned for a TD), but he didn't need to. NU will get a somewhat stiffer test this coming week at Wake Forest (I do expect NU to win pretty easily--WF caught lightning in a bottle last season, and I'm not thinking they'll put up an amazing fight...though of course I hope they do) before the huge USC game in two weeks.
From Corn Nation: the Report Card is a popular feature.
4. Colorado (beat Colorado State in OT, 31-28): As seems to normally be the case, a rivalry game was tight, and this one sounds like it was entertaining. Both teams exploded offensively in the first quarter (both had over 125 yards after 15 minutes), then both teams ground to a halt afterward, as neither reached 400 yards for the game. Cody Hawkins did enough to win--201 yards passing, 2 TD's, 1 INT--and that's all that's necessary, I guess. It gets tougher next week with a trip to Arizona State.
Here's a quick reaction from Buffs.tv.
5. Kansas State (lost to Auburn, 23-13): I watched most of the first half of this game, and I couldn't tell if K-State was better than I thought or if Auburn was worse. The AU offense was horrid, but Ian Campbell is great, and KSU seems to know how to swarm pretty well on defense.
As for the KSU offense...look, I think Josh Freeman is an okay QB. I do. He's not terrible or anything, and he's usually pretty poised. But he's not a sure-fire NFL prospect, and I get tired of his getting treated like he is. At one point, he threw three straight off-target passes on the same drive, but the announcers never took their eyes off the "surefire NFL prospect" cue card long enough to notice that he sprays the ball worse than a fire hose. Every single misfire is apparently an aberration...no matter how frequent. His touch needs serious work, and just because he's built like Dante Culpepper doesn't mean he's a can't miss kid. In the end, he did throw for 260 yards (albeit on 57 attempts) against a solid defense, but his 56% completion rate and 0-2 TD-INT ratio (not to mention his game-clinching fumble that got returned for a TD) still leave plenty to be desired...if anybody cares to notice.
Bring On the Cats has some lengthy comments. And yes, I realize that it's ironic for me to call somebody else's writing 'lengthy'...
6. Texas Tech (beat SMU, 49-9): The bar's high enough for Tech (and low enough for SMU) that this was precisely what was expected in every way. I like Danny Amendola, but if he's their biggest homerun threat (as he was yesterday), then they'll probably struggle (comparatively speaking, at least) in the future, but they'll obviously start 4-0 without much problem.
Double T Nation with some links and comments...
7. Texas A&M (beat Montana State, 38-7): ATM's biggest weakness was starkly pronounced in last year's Holiday Bowl versus California--ATM doesn't have great speed, especially on defense. Granted, Cal is just about the fastest team in the country, but ATM looked sllllloooowwwww. That said, they are superior to just about any team in strength and physicality, so there was just no way a Montana State would be able to keep up without wearing down. They tried--they held onto the ball for 11:00 minutes in the first quarter--but they were 2-for-13 on 3rd downs in the final three quarters, and that's deadly against such a physical offense. If you can't hold onto the ball, you can't keep your defense from wearing down.
I couldn't actually find an ATM blog with any post-game reaction. Weird.
8. Baylor (lost to TCU, 27-0): A while back, it didn't sound like Blake Szymanski was going to win the starting job, but he did...and then did absolutely nothing to reaffirm his position. TCU's good, but...yeah, this pretty much confirms what I was already thinking--Baylor's chance for success under Guy Morriss came and went last year.
BearMeat mines the scriptures and confirms that this will be a long season for the Bears.
9. Iowa State (lost to Kent State on Thursday, 23-14): I already spoke a little about this one, but...actually, with Minnesota's loss to Bowling Green and Michigan's loss to mighty Appalachian State (how great was THAT ending, btw), this one looks a little more acceptable I guess. Stuff happens. But after going through the play-by-play...yeah, ISU's going to have trouble this year. Bret Meyer continues to get sacked at the most horrifically inopportune times, and they only managed to get Todd Blythe involved at random times (mostly on the first drive of the second half, when they remembered he was a weapon and threw to him three times for 45 yards and a TD). And the defense wasn't able to slow down the mighty Golden Flashes running attack when the game was on the line.
Clone Chronicles discusses Bret Meyer's future as starting QB...
10. Oklahoma State (lost to Georgia, 35-14): Mike Gundy said he took this game so his guys would be more comfortable in hostile environments later in the season. Well...they couldn't look much less comfortable than they did in Athens. Georgia played well, but they gave OSU a few chances to stay in the game and the 'Pokes passed on it. Defensively, Adarius Bowman was kept in check, though the relatively underrated Brandon Pettigrew had a nice game. Keith Toston and Dantrell Savage combined for 5 yards a carry, but they only got 19 of them because Georgia's defense was stiff on 3rd down (OSU converted only 3 of 13 third downs). OSU just never could get going on all cylinders.
OSU has no blog I know of to quote.
11. Texas (snuck by Arkansas State, 21-13): Yes, they won, but... Don't know what to say about this, really. Arkansas State's not a terrible team by any means, and I know that Texas' WR corps has been decimated by injuries and a stupid suspension, but WR's weren't Texas' problem on Saturday. And besides...this is Texas, and they should be beating the Arkansas States of the world by more than 8 points. As frustrated as Mizzou fans may be by 'only' winning a rivalry game by 6 points, I have to figure UT fans are a wee bit more frustrated by this.
Burnt Orange Nation complains about, among other things, Texas' lateral running tendencies. Preaching to the choir, man...preaching to the choir...
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Stats Stats Stats: 2006 (RB's)
Yesterday, it was QB’s. Tonight, we take on running backs.
For RB’s, I will look at three criteria:
1. Success Rate (% of plays in which they touched the ball—rushing or receiving—that resulted in a success, as defined in yesterday’s QB post). This measures effectivness and efficiency.By looking at these three things together, one can get an idea of who the better/best RB’s in the conference were in Big 12 play. And again, all of the following data is from only Big 12 games, and only from circumstances in which the score of the game is within 17 points. To register on the list, you have to have touched the ball at least 10 times in these circumstances.
2. Average % of Success (comparing what they gained on each play as a percentage of what was defined as successful for the given play...a 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 would be 150% success. I cap the success at 1000% for any given play). This measures playmaking and explosiveness.
3. Total number of successful plays. This simply measures consistency throughout the course of a season.
There were 35 Big 12 RB’s who fit these criteria. Combining their ranking in each of the three criteria above, I came up with one all-encompassing ranking. Players in bold are returnees for 2007.
1. Jon Cornish, Kansas (75 successful plays, 47.5% success rate, avg% of success = 178%).
2. Michael Goodson, Texas A&M (53 / 54.6% / 171%)
3. Jorvorskie Lane, Texas A&M (63 / 56.8% / 143%)
4. Ryan Kock, Iowa State (31 / 59.6% / 169%)
5. Jamaal Charles, Texas (51 / 56.0% / 140%)
6. Shannon Woods, Texas Tech (52 / 48.2% / 159%)
7. Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma State (44 / 46.81% / 161%)
8. Leon Patton, Kansas State (44 / 46.8% / 161%)
9. Brandon Jackson, Nebraska (72 / 44.4% / 134%)
10. Cody Glenn, Nebraska (25 / 56.8% / 165%)
11. Keith Toston, Oklahoma State (29 / 59.2% / 148%)
12. Allen Patrick, Oklahoma (67 / 47.9% / 120%)
13. Chris Alexander, Texas A&M (15 / 83.3% / 256%)
14. Tony Temple, Missouri (39 / 44.8% / 155%)
15. Marlon Lucky, Nebraska (30 / 44.1% / 161%)
16. Paul Mosley, Baylor (31 / 44.3% / 143%)
17. Hugh Charles, Colorado (37 / 47.4% / 129%)
18. Selvin Young, Texas (40 / 44.4% / 125%)
19. Chris Brown, Oklahoma (27 / 46.6% / 145%)
20. Jason Scales, Iowa State (22 / 52.4% / 106%)
21. Jacob Gutierrez, Oklahoma (14 / 43.8% / 142%)
22. Mike Hamilton, Oklahoma State (15 / 38.5% / 134%)
23. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma (17 / 39.5% / 125%)
24. Mell Holliday, Colorado (18 / 33.3% / 134%)
25. James Johnson, Kansas State (24 / 32.4% / 113%)
26. Earl Goldsmith, Missouri (9 / 42.9% / 119%)
27. Stevie Hicks, Iowa State (11 / 37.9% / 121%)
28. Byron Ellis, Colorado (9 / 42.9% / 106%)
29. Brandon Whitaker, Baylor (10 / 38.5% / 84%)
30. Brandon McAnderson, Kansas (6 / 28.6% / 145%)
31. Courtney Lewis, Texas A&M (9 / 32.1% / 88%)
32. Thomas Clayton, Kansas State (8 / 35.3% / 75%)
33. Josh Johnson, Iowa State (4 / 28.6% / 90%)
34. Kenny Wilson, Nebraska (5 / 33.3% / 53%)
35. Jimmy Jackson, Missouri (2 / 14.3% / 51%)
Here are the Top 5 in each category.
Successful Plays
1. Jon Cornish (75)
2. Brandon Jackson (72)
3. Allen Patrick (67)
4. Jorvorskie Lane (63)
5. Michael Goodson (53)
Success Rate
1. Chris Alexander (83.3%) – fullback
2. Ryan Kock (59.6%) – part-time fullback
3. Keith Toston (59.2%)
4. Cody Glenn (56.8%)
5. Jorvorskie Lane (56.8%)
Average % of success
1. Chris Alexander (256%)
2. Jon Cornish (178%)
3. Michael Goodson (171%)
4. Ryan Kock (169%)
5. Cody Glenn (165%)
So what does this tell us?
- Jimmy Jackson really didn’t have a very good year in 2006.
- Speed is good, but having a big back (Alexander, Kock, Glenn, Lane) can still pay off in the effectiveness category. Need 4 yards on 1st-and-10? Need 3 yards on 2nd-and-4? A big back’s your guy. Not that Mizzou would know anything about that. Sorry...I kid, I kid...
- Teams really geared up on Adrian Peterson. That, and he got hurt in the second Big 12 game, so his sample size is only from the Texas and Iowa State games.
- Jon Cornish really did make a case for being the best RB in the conference. Sometimes teams just run the same guy a million times, and that’s how he leads the conference in rushing. Cornish was consistent and effective, and he had some explosiveness as well.
- A&M’s running attack was (and will be in ’07) really effective. Between these numbers and the fact that Stephen McGee was the most effective 4th quarter QB in the conference, you can definitely see how their gameplan took shape.
- Just like the competition between Kerry Meier and Todd Reesing for KU QB has been kind of baffling, just as baffling is the ‘battle’ between Leon Patton and James Johnson for KSU RB. For a big back, Johnson seemed less effective in short yardage (just ask Tommy Chavis, who stoned him on 4th-and-1 in Columbia), and while he had some long runs, Patton had more.
- Suddenly Dave Matter putting Michael Goodson at the top of his RB ratings for 2007 makes a lot more sense.
Mizzou Roundtable: Big 12 Predictions
In just a matter of hours, Iowa State will kick off both the Gene Chizik era and the Big 12 football season. About damn time. But I pooled the thoughts and (ahem) talents of various Mizzou Sanity posters—The Beef, Michael Atchison, Doug, and ZouDave—to pull together the official Mizzou Sanity 2007 Predictions. Doug was busy at work, so he served as the tie-breaker only.
I’m calling this a roundtable, but...well, on this one I’m the only one talking.
The way it should be, if you ask me.
Anyway, here's a week-by-week rundown of the predictions. Two things to keep in mind: 1) when 4-5 people are voting, chances are there will be no major upset predictions (especially since everybody was making their picks independent of feedback from the others), and 2) all four Mizzou fans started to pick an 11-1 season, thought better of it, and picked a random loss. One picked CU, one picked KSU, and two picked ATM. Since that made Doug the tiebreaker on the ATM game, he picked ATM to win. Naturally. Anyway...
Weekend of September 1
Unanimous
Iowa State > Kent State (August 30)
Kansas > Central Michigan
Missouri > Illinois
Nebraska > Nevada
Oklahoma > North Texas
Texas > Arkansas State
Texas A&M > Montana State
Texas Tech > SMU (September 2)
Auburn > Kansas State
TCU > Baylor
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Colorado > Colorado State
Georgia > Oklahoma State
--
Weekend of September 8
Unanimous
Arizona State > Colorado
Iowa State > Northern Iowa
Kansas > SE Louisiana
Kansas State > San Jose State
Missouri > Ole Miss
Baylor > Rice
Oklahoma > Miami-FL
Oklahoma State > Florida Atlantic
Texas > TCU
Texas A&M > Fresno State
Texas Tech > UTEP
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Nebraska > Wake Forest
--
Weekend of September 15
Unanimous
Florida State > Colorado
Iowa > Iowa State
Kansas > Toledo
Kansas State > SMS
Missouri > Western Michigan
USC > Nebraska
Baylor > Texas State
Oklahoma > Utah State
Oklahoma State > Troy
Texas > Central Florida
Texas A&M > UL-Monroe
Texas Tech > Rice
--
Weekend of September 22
Unanimous
Oklahoma State > Texas Tech
Colorado > Miami-OH
Kansas > Florida International
Missouri > Illinois State
Nebraska > Ball State
Baylor > Buffalo
Oklahoma > Tulsa
Texas > Rice
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Toledo > Iowa State
Texas A&M > Miami-FL
--
Weekend of September 29
Unanimous
Oklahoma > Colorado
Nebraska > Iowa State
Texas > Kansas State
Texas A&M > Baylor
Oklahoma State > Sam Houston
Texas Tech > Northwestern State
--
Weekend of October 6
Unanimous
Texas Tech > Iowa State
Kansas State > Kansas
Missouri > Nebraska
Texas A&M > Oklahoma State
The Beaker was the tiebreaker
Baylor > Colorado
Texas > Oklahoma
North
Missouri 1-0 (5-0)
Nebraska 1-1 (4-2)
Kansas State 1-1 (3-2)
Kansas 0-1 (4-1)
Colorado 0-2 (2-4)
Iowa State 0-2 (2-4)
South
Texas 2-0 (6-0)
Texas A&M 2-0 (6-0)
Oklahoma 1-1 (5-1)
Texas Tech 1-1 (5-1)
Baylor 1-1 (4-2)
Oklahoma State 1-1 (4-2)
--
Weekend of October 13
Unanimous
Kansas State > Colorado
Texas > Iowa State
Kansas > Baylor
Oklahoma > Missouri
Nebraska > Oklahoma State
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Texas A&M > Texas Tech
North
Nebraska 2-1 (5-2)
Kansas State 2-1 (4-2)
Missouri 1-1 (5-1)
Kansas 1-1 (5-1)
Colorado 0-3 (2-5)
Iowa State 0-3 (2-5)
South
Texas 3-0 (7-0)
Texas A&M 3-0 (7-0)
Oklahoma 2-1 (6-1)
Texas Tech 1-2 (5-2)
Baylor 1-2 (4-3)
Oklahoma State 1-2 (4-3)
--
Weekend of October 20
Unanimous
Colorado > Kansas
Oklahoma > Iowa State
Oklahoma State > Kansas State
Missouri > Texas Tech
Texas > Baylor
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Nebraska > Texas A&M
North
Nebraska 3-1 (6-2)
Missouri 2-1 (6-1)
Kansas State 2-2 (4-3)
Kansas 1-2 (5-2)
Colorado 1-3 (3-5)
Iowa State 0-4 (2-6)
South
Texas 4-0 (8-0)
Texas A&M 3-1 (7-1)
Oklahoma 3-1 (7-1)
Oklahoma State 2-2 (5-3)
Texas Tech 1-3 (5-3)
Baylor 1-3 (4-4)
--
Weekend of October 27
Unanimous
Texas Tech > Colorado
Missouri > Iowa State
Texas A&M > Kansas
Kansas State > Baylor
Texas > Nebraska
North
Missouri 3-1 (7-1)
Nebraska 3-2 (6-3)
Kansas State 3-2 (5-3)
Kansas 1-3 (5-3)
Colorado 1-4 (3-6)
Iowa State 0-5 (2-7)
South
Texas 5-0 (9-0)
Texas A&M 4-1 (8-1)
Oklahoma 3-1 (7-1)
Oklahoma State 2-2 (5-3)
Texas Tech 2-3 (6-3)
Baylor 1-4 (4-5)
--
Weekend of November 3
Unanimous
Nebraska > Kansas
Texas Tech > Baylor
Oklahoma > Texas A&M
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Missouri > Colorado
Texas > Oklahoma State
The Beaker was the tiebreaker
Iowa State > Kansas State
North
Missouri 4-1 (8-1)
Nebraska 4-2 (7-3)
Kansas State 3-3 (5-4)
Kansas 1-4 (5-4)
Colorado 1-5 (3-7)
Iowa State 1-5 (3-7)
South
Texas 6-0 (10-0)
Oklahoma 4-1 (8-1)
Texas A&M 4-2 (8-2)
Texas Tech 3-3 (7-3)
Oklahoma State 2-3 (5-4)
Baylor 1-5 (4-6)
--
Weekend of November 10
Unanimous
Oklahoma State > Kansas
Nebraska > Kansas State
Oklahoma > Baylor
Texas > Texas Tech
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Colorado > Iowa State
The Beaker was the tiebreaker
Texas A&M > Missouri
North
Nebraska 5-2 (8-3)
Missouri 4-2 (8-2)
Kansas State 3-4 (5-5)
Colorado 2-5 (4-7)
Kansas 1-5 (5-5)
Iowa State 1-6 (3-8)
South
Texas 7-0 (11-0)
Oklahoma 5-1 (9-1)
Texas A&M 5-2 (9-2)
Oklahoma State 3-3 (6-4)
Texas Tech 3-4 (7-4)
Baylor 1-6 (4-7)
--
Weekend of November 17
Unanimous
Oklahoma State > Baylor
Oklahoma > Texas Tech
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Kansas > Iowa State
Missouri > Kansas State
North
Missouri 5-2 (9-2)
Nebraska 5-2 (8-3)
Kansas State 3-5 (5-6)
Colorado 2-5 (4-7)
Kansas 2-5 (6-5)
Iowa State 1-7 (3-9)
South
Texas 7-0 (11-0)
Oklahoma 6-1 (10-1)
Texas A&M 5-2 (9-2)
Oklahoma State 4-3 (7-4)
Texas Tech 3-5 (7-5)
Baylor 1-7 (4-8)
--
Weekend of November 24
Unanimous
Nebraska > Colorado
Missouri > Kansas
Oklahoma > Oklahoma State
3 out of 4 Mizzou fans agree
Texas A&M > Texas
Kansas State > Fresno State
North
Missouri 6-2 (10-2)
Nebraska 6-2 (9-3)
Kansas State 3-5 (6-6)
Kansas 2-6 (6-6)
Colorado 2-6 (4-8)
Iowa State 1-7 (3-9)
South
Texas 7-1 (11-1)
Oklahoma 7-1 (11-1)
Texas A&M 6-2 (10-2)
Oklahoma State 4-4 (7-5)
Texas Tech 3-5 (7-5)
Baylor 1-7 (4-8)
--
Weekend of December 1
Unanimous
Texas > Missouri
--
BOWL GAMES
(We didn't actually make predictions on these...just thought I'd see what the possible matchups would be...I had some fun with this.)
BCS National Championship: Texas vs USC (I doubt there will be two undefeated teams, and I'd say the only candidate more likely to make the title game at 12-1 would be LSU...and I don't think a Les Miles team is capable of losing only one game.)
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs Hawaii!
Cotton: Missouri vs Tennessee
Gator: Texas A&M vs Florida State
Holiday: Nebraska vs Oregon
Insight: Oklahoma State vs Purdue
Independence: Texas Tech vs Alabama
Texas: Kansas State vs Memphis
Kansas gets left out at 6-6 again. If Doug had picked Mizzou over ATM, I might have found a place for them.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Big 12 Round Table
Alright, this has made its way to Sanity...guess that means we’re official Big 12 Bloggers now, huh? (Any other Sanity posters who want to contribute in comments, feel free. I’ll get the ball rolling...)
Pick a team (other than the one you blog about) from the north and south divisions and explain why they may be the best team in the division.
There’s always room for a surprise, I guess, but considering the current state of Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas, and Kansas State, you have to consider the North a two-team race this year. And being that my team is Mizzou, I guess that means I have to pick Nebraska. Why? Look at the other four teams.
As for the South...OSU and ATM could both be darkhorses, but their road schedules will prevent them from contending...as will Texas Tech’s front seven. That leaves, of course, UT and OU. I go back and forth on them, so let’s look at things this way:
QB: UT
RB: OU (though this one’s a tossup)
WR/TE: OU (simply because they’re healthy...otherwise, tossup)
OL: OU
DL: UT
LB: UT
DB: OU
Special Teams: OU
Coaching: OU
That’s a 6-3 advantage for OU. So naturally I’m picking UT. I trust my own predictive abilities that much.
If the Big 12 Conference had a Heisman trophy candidate who would it be and why?
I guess Colt McCoy. Chase Daniel will put up bigger numbers, and there’s at least some chance that Mizzou has a really really good year, but Texas is more likely to be at the top of the polls in December, and that obviously means a lot.
If you had to place a $100.00 bet on a current Big 12 head coach being fired at the end of the season who would you pick and why?
Guy Morriss’ house is for sale already. No contest.
The one non-conference game, not involving your school, you would pay money to see would be?
My sense of morbid curiosity makes me think KSU-Auburn might be a good one to watch, simply because I’m an MU fan and enjoy watching KSU get pummeled. But from a sheer entertainment standpoint, OU-Miami will be a lot of fun, as will ATM-Miami. Plus there would be the draw of watching a game (OSU-UGa) Between the Hedges...but I’ll go with OU-Miami, simply because I grew up in Oklahoma in the ‘80s, and this reminds me of those games.
Which of the four Big 12 schools currently ranked in the AP Top 25 doesn't belong there?
Technically Nebraska did lose the “Offensive Player of the Year” and have a rough schedule, so they’re probably the least deserving, but that doesn’t mean they’re not actually deserving. Besides, I want them ranked as high as possible come October 6—it’ll be that much more fun beating them that way. All four of them deserve to be there, though due to ATM’s brutal schedule, I’ll be impressed if they’re there at the end of the season.
Make a case for one of the 8 Big 12 schools not ranked as to why they should be.
Well, the obvious choice is Mizzou, and they almost are, but I’m a homer, so I’ll avoid that argument. I’ll say OSU. Their defense will be at least marginally improved, and their offense is the most explosive in the conference. They can go three-and-out for four straight possessions, then rip off three straight 70-yard TD’s. They should be a lot of fun to watch this year. Too bad (for them) they’re not in the North Division.
Prediction Time:
Tell us the offensive and defensive players who are going to make the biggest impact on the conference this season.
Offense
Biggest numbers: Chase Daniel or Graham Harrell
Best pro prospect: Adarius Bowman
Best newcomer: Demarco Murray or (gag) Sam Keller
Could make difference between good season and great: Jamaal Charles, Marlon Lucky, Tony Temple, Michael Goodson
Most overrated: Martellus Bennett. Sorry. I'm not letting this one go just yet.
Defense
Biggest numbers: Alvin Bowen (tackles), Ian Campbell (sacks)
Best pro prospect: Frank Okam
Best newcomer: just because I love his name, Tang Bacheyie
Could make difference between good season and great: Bo Ruud (he was fantastic in about 3-4 games last year, disappeared entirely in others), Stryker Sulak, Chris Collins
Most overrated: Until he brings it every game, Bo Ruud.
