Football, schmootball. So what if the gridiron season hasn't even kicked off yet? The hoops junkies at espn.com are already looking ahead to basketball season, and they begin with the Pac 10 (their boys are big) and the Patriot League (their boys are smart).
And to bring this back to Mizzou, Tiger soph-to-be Keon Lawrence made light work of the prestigious Jersey Shore League for the second straight year. Despite the presence of senior Stefhon Hannah and the arrival of DeMarre Carroll, I think Keon emerges as Mizzou's star this year.
Showing posts with label NCAA basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA basketball. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Hoops Preview: Pac 10 & Patriot League and Keon Scores on the Shore
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Mizzou Links, 6-12-07
We've reached the point in the summer where 'Mizzou Links' will start to turn into just 'Links'. Not too many Mizzou-related goings-on for the next two months...
- Isaac Miles really really wants to transfer to Mizzou (from Creighton). It's not everyday that a kid who started as a freshman on an NCAA tourney team wants to transfer to your school, so I'm pretty sure the Mizzou coaches are giving this a long, hard thought. It probably doesn't hurt that his good friend and former teammate is '08 stud Travis Releford. And he likes Mizzou so much he might be willing to walk on. Interesting.
- And speaking of '08 studs, PowerMizzou has a story up about Scott Suggs' recent visit to Columbia.
- Meanwhile, the NCAA threw a live blogger out of the Louisville-OSU game on Sunday. Stupid. The world is changing whether the NCAA wants it to or not, and they really need to change arcane policies like this.
- Here's a decent Andy Katz story about underclassmen in the NCAA draft and the importance of accurate information given to them. Meanwhile, ATM's Joseph Jones has removed his name from the draft pool. Honestly, I didn't know he had put his name into the draft pool.
Monday, March 26, 2007
For you Basketball junkies with premium cable
You may want to check out UCLA Dynasty on the family of HBO networks. A great little one-hour show about Wooden, those teams and all the different innovations they brought to the game. The above listing is from the STL Post Dispatch, but I am sure if you have HBO the schedule will be the same. I have just watched it and really enjoyed it.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Random Thoughts from Section 426, Row A
And yes...that wrestling wrap-up is coming...it just takes time to sit down and do a little research...time I just do not seem to have these days. I cannot tell if it is 6:15 a.m. work mornings or the wedding in nine weeks. Either way...yeah...it is coming.
So I had the chance to go to the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games this past weekend in the Edwards Jones Dome here in STL. This also completed my seeing at least one game of each round of the NCAA tourney...which was not even something I grew up thinking I could do. Saw three pretty decent games...at least no blowouts. We got really decent seats...front row of the upper deck. . To be honest, there are not too many other seats I would want in that place. Needless to say, the Dome does not provide that cozy feeling that college basketball tends to feed off of. Speaking of what the Dome and the NCAA also does not provide...
- Length of time outs is at a epidemic duration. Talk about sucking the life out of a building with basically an almost four minute break each time. Any time a college basketball game that does not go into overtime lasts almost as long as a hockey games means you have problems.
- I don't know if Florida has played a full 40 minutes yet or not, but I am to the point where I really do not want them to (or believe they will) advance any further. Butler and Oregon combined for a grand total of 55 fouls against Florida. Now, yes, there were a few of those which came at a point in the game where the team had to foul them, but in both games, Florida received just about every last call, and seemed to need them to pull off their victory, especially against a very game Butler.
- Speaking of Butler, I did witness an interesting feat performed by their fans on Friday night. At the under 12 timeout in the 2nd half, the Butler fans managed to recruit both the Oregon AND UNLV fans to cheer for them during the timeout.
- The NCAA should try to maybe do a little better job in terms of regional seeding in future years. How dumb is it for Kansas and SIU to play in a 2/3 empty arena in San Jose at 4:00 p.m. local time? STL was in the same boat, with no regional anchor this past weekend (Wisconsin bowed out early).
- What a job by G'Town to make the Final Four (and give me three of four teams this weekend with aTm letting me down). Overcoming UNC's ridiculous advantage at the free throw line and basically crushing them down the stretch was really fun to see. Jeff Green is an absolute freak of an athlete.
- For my Final Four prediction, I will go ahead and stick to my guns with UCLA beating Florida and G'town taking down Ohio State (I did have G'town beating UT to get there, and had aTm beating Ohio State) and UCAL beating G'town in what will likely go down as one of the unprettiest and exciting games in a long time.
Alright...time to turn the steaks...Nice job by Mizzou baseball this past weekend to take two of three on the road at Nebraska to open the season. I am thinking (hoping) trrip will have more on that this week, but that is how you LOVE to start the conference season.
Until next time....hopefully that wrestling article that I promised to write....
Friday, March 23, 2007
The Lawrence Welk Invitational
A one anna two, and a one anna two . . .
Welcome to the chalkiest NCAA tourney ever. Eight teams left. Four number one seeds. Three number twos. One number three.
It may lack the romance of a Cinderella story, but it'll make for one flat-out badass battle for the national title. Whoever wins this thing - and, really, Oregon is the only one left who would really be a surprise - will have earned it.
And if you've ever wondered what a perfect college football playoff might look like, it doesn't take much imagination to get from here to there. Eight of the very best teams, representing seven conferences, going at each other hammer and tongs until only one remains. It couldn't get much better than this.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Heavyweights
Whatever you think about the NCAA selection committee, let's give them this: They seeded the hell out of this tournament. Half the Sweet 16 is done, and what are we left with? 1 vs. 2 and 1 vs. 2.
Should be a remarkable weekend.
Like I said...
...Memphis isn't battle-tested, and they can't make FT's. That's why they'll lose early on in the NCAA's. It's hard being so right all the time.
Meanwhile, good showing by SIU...if the refs understood what a goaltend or a shot clock violation was, then the result might've been different. If UCLA beats Pitt, then KU better bump up their level of play a bit...UCLA basically plays like SIU, only with better athletes.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Sunday quick picks...
Yes, I realize there's really nothing quick about these, but hey...humor me...
And I guess I should take the time to apologize to VCU for jumping on their bandwagon. There's no better way for me to curse a team than by starting to root for them. Helluva comeback, though.
And I do like how there were about 3 exciting games in the entire first round, and there were 7 yesterday. Good omen for the rest of the tourney.
Tennessee vs Virginia
Two unpredictable and exciting teams who were absolutely fantastic in the opening round. I'm a bit surprised that this is the game they chose as the solo opening slot, but I'm not complaining. I have absolutely no idea what will happen here, but I'll go with Tennessee because they've performed better in must-win games, and Bruce Pearl's system gives them a more defined identity...which is sometimes pretty important in the tourney. And they have the single-best player on the court in Lofton.
Original pick: Tennessee over Albany.
Purdue vs Florida
Matchups are funny sometimes. Whereas Purdue matched up very well with Arizona and Arizona matched up pretty well with Florida, I don't think Purdue matches up well at all with Florida. Florida is beatable, but you need some offensive explosiveness to pull it off, and I don't think Purdue has the goods there. They like to muss up a game like UCLA does, only UCLA has Collison and Afflalo. Carl Landry is good, but...yeah, I think Florida wins by 10-12.
Original pick: Florida over Purdue
UNLV vs Wisconsin
Okay, here's the other reason my brackets don't win--I pick something, then immediately think I picked the opposite. I could have sworn I picked UNLV over Georgia Tech and Wisconsin this weekend, but I just went back and checked, and I had GT instead. Whatever. I'm not the only one who thinks Wisconsin is the most vulnerable of the 1's and 2's--pretty much everybody thinks that at some point--but I did get to see UNLV multiple times in Vegas last week, and I must say...they've got a really nice combination of grind and athleticism. They can play physical, and they can play in a track meet. As Wisconsin proved in round one, they can have a problem with really athletic teams--A&M-CC definitely fell into that category--so UNLV's got a really good chance. If Kevin Kruger can actually hit a couple of shots in this game, this game is a tossup. And since I picked Wisconsin to lose originally, I'll stick with that.
Again, I'm desperate for upsets.
Original pick: UNLV Georgia Tech over Wisconsin
Virginia Tech vs Southern Illinois
Jekyll/Hyde versus Known Quantity. I was hoping for an Illinois/SIU matchup here, but the refs swallowed their whistles at the end of the VT/Ill game, and VT moved on. SIU will punch VT in the mouth early, and how VT responds will dictate the pace of the game. Tech has the better athletes, but SIU is smarter and has been more battle-tested over the last few years. Since VT let Illinois dictate the pace most of the game (before a late-game surge), and since SIU's even better at the physical, methodical game than Illinois, I'll go out on a limb and pick SIU.
And then I'll change my mind and pick Virginia Tech.
Original pick: Illinois over SIU
Winthrop vs Oregon
Speaking of Jekyll & Hyde...Oregon beats USC by about 80, then barely creeps by Miami-OH. Miami played the perfect style to combat Oregon, and UO didn't shoot all that well. Winthrop isn't as plodding as Oregon, going with a three-guards-and-a-big-aussie lineup, but they'll probably still have the size advantage against UO's four-guard linup. In other words, if the Ducks aren't making 3's, they're extremely vulnerable. As soon as VCU lost, I jumped on the Winthrop bandwagon, so I think you know who I'm picking here.
Original pick: Oregon over Winthrop
Nevada vs Memphis
Like a lot of people (I just can't figure out a way to be original!), I've been pretty down on Memphis. I'll reiterate why--they went 2-3 versus tourney teams and shoot 61% from the FT line. That's not very good. They struggled for a while with a decent North Texas team, but that's been their calling card all season versus overmatched teams--let the other team run with you until they wear down in the second half, then crush them with a big run. Nevada is an extremely underrated 7-seed who survived a bad game from Nick Fazekas to beat Creighton in the first round. He'll obviously have to play quite well today, but if he does, Nevada's got the goods to win. And since I picked Nevada initially, I'll stick with them (unlike Oregon).
Original pick: Nevada over Memphis
Kentucky vs Kansas
Again with the matchups. Whereas I think Villanova could have offered an interesting matchup for Kansas, I just don't think Kentucky is anywhere near explosive enough to threaten here. Sure, Randolph Morris is much better than Sasha Kaun head-to-head, but Kaun is underrated in how he fits into Kansas' team defense.
I just made myself gag a little bit saying that.
Anyway, I don't see Morris having a good game, and I don't see Kentucky being able to keep up with KU for more than about 30 minutes. Gotta go with Kansas.
Original pick: Kansas over Villanova
USC vs Texas
Needless to say, I'm not feeling altogether confident in my Final Four pick after they struggled mightily against New Mexico State in the first round. However, Kevin Durant admitted to being nervous, and I think NMSU was playing out of its mind for quite a while. If Texas plays more comfortable this time around, they should handle USC pretty easily. USC has some decent weapons, but UT has more.
Original pick: Texas over Arkansas (oops).
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Well...
...we've already had more excitement in three games today than we did the entire first two days of the tourney...
Seems like old times . . . miserable, wretched old times
Ohio State just had it's Tyus Edney moment. Number one team in the nation, all but beaten in the second round of the NCAAs, magically pulls it out in the end, causing a major, ugly flashback for this Tiger fan. Now that the Bucks have gotten staggered and survived, don't be surprised to see them go on a big run.
Quick picks for today's games...
...first of all, from now on I'm making two rules for picking future tourneys: 1) Always pick chalk for the 1-3 seeds (obviously the 1-2 seeds aren't a problem, but there's always at least one tempting 3/14 game, and I always get it wrong), and 2) How a team played over the last few weeks is in almost no way an indication of how they'll do in the tourney. I will no longer use that as a factor in my picks. Virginia crumbled at the end of the season, and they absolutely embarassed Albany. Same for others. Once you make it to the tourney, your season starts anew. Anyway...on to today's games...
Ohio State vs Xavier
For a long time, I've been telling friends (and anybody else who will listen) that the NBA age limit is great for college hoops because the top teams will always be young, and it will always open the door for experienced mid-major teams to make some noise. This game will be a test of that. Granted, OSU starts three upperclassmen, but they still skew quite young. Xavier, on the other hand, starts 3 Jr's and 2 Sr's. This game is also intriguing because of the 'Mizzou-SMS' factor--Xavier hates OSU because OSU refuses to play them (it's a no-win situation for OSU just like with MU against SMS or SLU). I have to pick OSU here obviously, but this could be a really good game.
Or maybe I'm just extremely desperate for a good game after two mostly blah days, and I'm able to talk myself into anything.
Original pick for this round: OSU over Xavier.
Butler vs Maryland
A lot of people are saying that Butler looked pretty bad against ODU the other day--and they pretty much did--but that's the type of game Butler plays. They make things messy, and they make 3's. Against a team like Maryland who wants to run, that might be pretty successful (they did win the Preseason NIT, after all). Or, they could lose by 25. Just depends on which style wins out. I'll split the difference and say Maryland by about 8.
Original pick: Maryland over Old Dominion.
Louisville vs Texas A&M
The best game of the day in my eyes. When originally looking at the bracket, I had the winner of this game going to the Final Four...of course, then too many people started picking ATM, so I changed my Final Four pick to Ohio State. Either way, though, I think the winner of this game takes the Sweet Sixteen game pretty easily. No team played better than Louisville in Round One (though Stanford helped out by proving me right that they didn't belong anywhere near the tourney), and no team is more battle-tested than ATM. I originally picked ATM, and I'll stick with that, but if Louisville plays the same as they did on Thursday, they could run away with it.
Original pick: Texas A&M over Louisville
Vanderbilt vs Washington State
This was my biggest screwup of the first round. I stuck with Oral Roberts even though they got a 14 seed instead of a 13, and Washington State made me regret that. Plus, I thought Vandy peaked a while back and didn't have anything left. Oops. They were right up there for "best team of the first round" along with Louisville, Tennessee, and Kansas. This could be a great matchup too (the 3/6 games seem to be the most intriguing). I'm picking Wazzu this time simply because a) I regret not picking them in the first round, and b) it seems like everybody's counting them out again and picking Vandy.
Original pick: GW over Oral Roberts...oops.
Boston College vs Georgetown
Like everybody else, I saw this matchup and thought, "Wait...how can two Big East teams be playing each other in the second round? Oh yeah..." Whereas Va Tech is a pretty natural fit in the ACC, BC will always seem like an outsider...like Marquette in the Big East. Anyway, BC played better than I thought they would in the first round (again, that "they sucked to end the season" thing coming back to bite me), but Georgetown just has everything clicking right now. It wouldn't surprise me if this game was pretty close and physical, but I'm sticking with Georgetown.
Original pick: Georgetown over Texas Tech
VCU vs Pittsburgh
I picked Duke to jinx them, and it worked...but man, how good did VCU look Thursday night? They lack size, and that will hurt them big time versus Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall, but Duke had Josh McRoberts, and he had a big game...and how did that work out for Duke? Pitt's guards are quicker than Duke's (just about everybody's guards are quicker than Duke's), and they could prevent VCU from imposing their style quite as much...but I'm hopping on the bandwagon, baby!! VCU by 6.
Original pick: Duke over Pitt
Indiana vs UCLA
Yeah, UCLA looked just a wee bit better Thursday night than they did in the Pac 10 tourney. I was a little concerned about that. Anyway, they play Indiana's pretty physical style as well as Indiana does, and their guards are much, much better. This could be a pretty boring 12-point win for UCLA.
Original pick: UCLA over Indiana
Michigan State vs North Carolina
I'd never want to play Michigan State in the tourney, and not only because Tom Izzo's had, shall we say, a bit of success there. State's a team that, by this time of the season, is a pretty known quantity. You know exactly what you're going to get from them--you can't really count on them having a bad day--and if you have a bad game against them, there's no question you'll lose. If UNC's shots aren't falling and Wright and/or Hansbrough get in foul trouble, UNC's in serious trouble. I won't be surprised if this game is close late, but I have to stick with UNC on this one. Nothing makes me happier than Roy Williams losing, though, so I sure won't cry if Team Izzo takes this one.
Original pick: UNC over Michigan State
(Note: At the moment, it's 11-10 OSU, so hopefully this ends up a pretty close and entertaining game. So far, the intensity's been there, but we're on pace for about a 44-40 OSU victory. Bleh.)
Friday, March 16, 2007
Thoughts on Tourney Day One...
* Michael's right--if Pitt doesn't come to play tomorrow, the Colonial Ass-kicking Association will have its second Sweet Sixteen team in two years.
* I always pick too many damn upsets. I always manage to forget that, in probably 2 of every 3 years, all the upsets happen in the second round, not the first. I was impressed, though, that even though I picked 3 non-8/9 or 7/10 upsets, I didn't pick the one that actually ended up being an upset (VCU > Duke).
* I jinxed Duke nicely. I really should have picked KU to go all the way.
* The ATM-Louisville game tomorrow could be VERY good. I have ATM in the Elite Eight, and even before yesterday I was much more worried about Louisville than whoever they would play in the Sweet 16 (Memphis/Nevada/Creighton).
* Note to self: you can go ahead and 'vow' to pick certain teams as upsets in the first round before the draw is revealed, but if your upset team ends up being a 14-seed or worse (Oral Roberts, for example), ABORT. There will be 3/14 and 2/15 upsets sometimes, but you will never ever predict them. Just pick chalk for the 1-3 seeds.
* Even though I only went 11-5 on Day One (not all that great), I only lost 2 Sweet 16 teams and 0 Elite Eight teams, so it could be worse. I won't win any pools, but I won't finish last either.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
The Colonial Ass-kicking Association
If ever a league deserved to inject a little hubris right into its name, it's the Colonial Athletic Association. Last year, conference member George Mason took out a string of heavies, including Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut. Now, Virginia Commonwealth disposes of the bracket's resident 800-pound gorilla, the all-star sociology scholars of Duke University. The line between the majors and the mids continues to fade.
Jay Bilas sees the future
Jay Bilas doing color commentary on the Boston College - Texas Tech game, with twenty seconds left in the half and BC holding the ball near halfcourt:
"Boston College will probably start the offense with around twelve seconds left, then try to get a shot off with about four seconds on the clock, so if they miss it they can get an offensive rebound without letting Texas Tech go the other way and score."
Boston College then started the offense with twelve seconds left, got a shot off with four seconds on the clock, missed, got the offensive rebound and a putback for the score, never allowing Tech to go the other way with the ball.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
NCAA Preview – South Region
1 Ohio State
16 Central Connecticut State
The Beef was quite heartbroken that CCSU (near his hometown) drew Ohio State, but I guess he should just feel lucky they didn’t go to the play-in game like they deserved (they should have been in it instead of Niagara). Then again, that would have offered him an opportunity to watch the Blue Devils in HD. Ohio State is an enigma for me—a young team that doesn’t usually play like it. They have brain farts like young teams are prone to, but they’re never too prolonged due to mature point guard play from Mike Conley, Jr., and of course Greg Oden. And being that there’s really not a single team in their side of the bracket who has a serious chance of defeating them unless OSU has just an awful night (always a possibility in the tourney), they should go pretty far.
Prediction: Ohio State
8 BYU
9 Xavier
I like both of these teams, actually. Well, I don’t LIKE them (BYU, at least), but I think they’re pretty capable of winning a game in the tourney. BYU jumped out to a 29-5 lead against Wyoming in the MWC semis, then a 19-6 lead against UNLV in the finals. They blew most of that lead against Wyoming and ALL of that lead against the Rebels, but they’re still pretty solid. Meanwhile, Xavier won 10 of 11 to end the regular season before pummeling Dayton and slipping up to Rhode Island in the A10 tourney (though that could have just been a conspiracy to get two A10 teams in the NCAA’s!). They have lots of experience—two seniors and three juniors in their starting lineup, and a decent amount of size for a mid-major. If you let them, BYU will simply post up and take 3-footers all night, but I don’t think Xavier will let them.
Prediction: Xavier
(And on a side note, we went to the Thomas & Mack on Friday night, and it was just amazing to see how much fans of every other school in the MWC hate BYU. It’s almost like they’re every team’s main rival. It was hilarious to see a cute, young Wyoming fan saying, “I f---king HATE losing to those c---suckers” after the game...there’s some Mizzou-level hatred there. Very enjoyable. I felt right at home.)
5 Tennessee
12 Long Beach State
LBSU did very well in putting away Cal Poly to win the Big West. However, they lost me $50 in a Vegas parlay in the process. So screw them.
Prediction: Tennessee
4 Virginia
13 Albany
I have absolutely no idea how Albany got a 13 and Oral Roberts got a 14, but whatever. They’re athletic, and they’ll be going up against a team that doesn’t know how to be good yet. Virginia got a taste of the big-time recently, presented with an opportunity to win the ACC outright. What happened? They lost to a bad Wake Forest team to lose the 1-seed, then blew a big lead in losing to N.C. State in the ACC quarterfinals. That’s not really how you like to perform coming into the tourney (not to mention the fact that The Beef had money on the UVa/NC State game and hates UVa twice as much as I hate LBSU). They’ve done well considering they started 9-6 with double-digit losses to Appalachian State, Utah (a 24-point loss to a team that finished near the bottom of the MWC), and North Carolina, but they don’t appear to have much left in the tank. Plus, Albany WON at Utah and has won 13 of 15 overall. And their nickname is the Great Danes, which is awesome. This is yet another gruesome 4/13/5/12 quadrant, by the way. I’m not sold on Tennessee at all, and I have them waltzing to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Albany
6 Louisville
11 Stanford
Well, after getting 64 right the last two years, I only got 63 of the NCAA selections right this year. I had Syracuse and K-State in instead of Arkansas and Stanford. I kinda knew Stanford was going to get in (all the talking heads were telling me they would), but I just don’t think their resume was any better than K-State’s, and K-State had a better record and RPI. And as Bill Simmons said the other day, while the Pac 10 has the reputation of being a better conference this year, I’m not even sure they’re better than the Big XII. Oh well. Meanwhile, Louisville is a team that has grown by leaps and bounds as the season has progressed. They’re not as good as the seed they got in the Big East Tournament (2...we’re going to have to get used to strange seedings in the Big East Tourney, 16 teams does not result in too balanced a schedule), but they’re strong. Stronger than Stanford, anyway.
Prediction: Louisville
3 Texas A&M
14 Penn
ATM peaked a few weeks ago and haven’t quite been the same well-oiled machine they were. But unlike a lot of teams who peaked a while back, ATM’s kept winning for the most part. And I know Memphis has won like 90 games in a row against inferior competition now, but does anybody on the committee really think they’re better than ATM? Meanwhile, Penn isn’t quite mid-‘90s Princeton here. In fact, I’m quite ready for somebody new to emerge from the Ivy. Is it too much to ask that Brown or Dartmouth makes a run?
Prediction: ATM
7 Nevada
10 Creighton
Nevada got pretty screwed on their seeding, and Creighton probably peaked in the MVC tournament. In other words...
Prediction: Nevada
2 Memphis
15 North Texas
Every time I’ve watched Memphis this season, it seems like they’ve shot about 40% from the free throw line. It’s just that, they’ve been so much more talented and athletic than anybody they’ve played since 12/20, when they lost to Arizona. Since then they’ve played (and beaten) exactly 1 NCAA tourney team: Gonzaga, a 10-seed, whom they beat 78-77.
It’s not that I don’t think Memphis is a good team—they’re amazingly athletic, they’ve got size, and they’ve got some good shooters—it’s just that they’re not battle-tested (and they didn’t deserve a higher seed than ATM). For the season they were 2-3 versus NCAA tourney teams. That’s not 2-seed worthy. That, combined with their lack of crunch-time experience and seemingly poor FT that I mentioned above (just 61.0% for the season), leads me to think they’ll be exiting early in the tourney.
Just not in the first round.
Prediction: Memphis
Looking Ahead
Second Round
1 Ohio State > 9 Xavier (though Xavier’s experience will give OSU’s youth a battle)
5 Tennessee > 13 Albany (I think all four teams in this quadrant have a 25% chance of making the Sweet 16...brutal...)
3 ATM > 6 Louisville (ATM would do very well in the Big East with their style of play)
7 Nevada > 2 Memphis (Not likely, but I was going to have UM losing to ATM anyway, so I might as well go for the upset)
Sweet 16
1 Ohio State > 5 Tennessee (OSU’s guards too good for the pressure D)
3 ATM > 7 Nevada (A lot of people are taking ATM in the Final Four...)
Elite 8
1 Ohio State > 3 ATM (...and therefore I can’t be one of them.)
Have I mentioned that I hate my predictions already?
NCAA Preview – East Region
1 North Carolina
16 Eastern Kentucky
I think UNC is still too young to go all the way, but they’re obviously not too young to lose to EKU. Their game against N.C. State the other day was, I think, pretty indicative of what we’ll see from them over the next couple of weeks. They look athletic and talented enough to run you off the court at any moment, but they don’t actually do it.
Prediction: UNC
8 Marquette
9 Michigan State
I’ve tried and tried to analyze this game, but I just couldn’t figure out who I thought was better...so I’m just going with the injury fallback—Jerel McNeal, Marquette’s second-best player, is out for the game. Neither team has a ton of firepower outside of their star guards (Neitzel vs Dominic James), but State’s healthier, so I guess I’ll go with that.
Prediction: Michigan State
5 USC
12 Arkansas
Wow, what an awful selection Arkansas was. I mean, I guess it makes Mizzou look better since we can say that we beat them, and they’re in the tourney, but still. Awful. A bad record in the SEC’s bad division and an overall mediocre resume was deleted by the fact that they won 3 games in a weekend, beating exactly one decent team, Vanderbilt. Power to Joe Lunardi for predicting that they’d get in, but...that just makes me think he has sway on the committee or something. K-State, Syracuse, Drexel, and West Virginia, at the very least, all had better resumes than Arkansas. Just a terrible selection. Of course, they’re playing a shaky USC team, and they’ll probably win after hearing how they don’t deserve to be here all week, but still...they don’t deserve to be here. USC, like Oregon, is a team I just can’t get a grasp on. They simultaneously look like they’re overachieving and underachieving. I don’t know what to do with them, but since I’m going to have Texas winning the 2nd round matchup anyway, I might as well go out on a limb and pick the team that has no business being in the tourney.
Prediction: Arkansas
4 Texas
13 New Mexico State
It’s really hard not to agree with Bill Simmons and think that Texas could run the table all the way to, at the very least, the Elite Eight. But there’s a reason why they’ve played in so many amazingly close, exciting games this season—they’re good enough to play with anybody, but they’re not consistent enough to beat a good team easily. In two different games this year, they put on about the best offensive display imagineable in the first half against Kansas and slowly fell apart in the second half, only to rally at the end. I don’t think Rick Barnes is as bad a coach as Simmons does, but he’s not great. And the team really does forget about Durant sometimes in crunch time.
All that said, they still have a devastatingly easy route to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Texas
6 Vanderbilt
11 George Washington
I was very high on Vandy a few weeks ago, and suddenly I’m not. I think GW has some NCAA karma owed to them after getting absolutely screwed with an 8-seed last year despite all of 1 loss on the season. GW’s not as good as they were last year, but Vandy peaked a while back. You see where I’m going with this?
Prediction: George Washington
3 Washington State
14 Oral Roberts
Along with Winthrop, I vowed to pick ORU in the first round against whoever they played. I thought they’d get a 13-seed of course, but I’m a man of my word, I guess. While I’ve seen USC, Washington, and UCLA multiple times this season, I managed to not see even one second of a Wazzu game. I have no idea if they’re actually any good (I suppose they are), though in my own misinformed opinion, it’s blowing my mind how much the Big XII was disrespected this year (K-State not getting in, A&M getting a lower seed than Memphis, Texas getting a lower seed than Wazzu). I’d still normally pick Wazzu to win if not for my strange ORU vow, though.
Prediction: Oral Roberts
7 Boston College
10 Texas Tech
Two teams that have been quite underwhelming for a while. I saw BC early in the season, and they looked like a darkhorse Final Four team. Then I saw them play at home against Duke, and they couldn’t have cared less. Duke got roughly 453 offensive rebounds and loose balls in that game. They came back to beat Miami-FL on Friday after looking quite poor for a majority of the game, and then they failed to show up against UNC. At the same time, Tech was limping toward the finish line, losing 5 in a row...until they won 6 of 7 to end the regular season. And then, facing what seemed like a must-win matchup against K-State, they laid a big egg, losing by 21. Still, they’ve at least not lost three games by double digits in the last three weeks like BC has.
Prediction: Texas Tech
2 Georgetown
15 Belmont
I’m always wary of teams that peak in the conference tourney, and there’s absolutely no way Georgetown can play any better than they played last week at Madison Square Garden. But they have a couple games here to get into a rhythm. I always enjoy when Belmont does well—I guess in some extremely backwards way it subconsciously justifies our losing to them in 2003-04...or not—but they’ve got a 0.01% chance of winning this game.
Prediction: Georgetown
Looking Ahead
On to the second-round games...
1 UNC > 9 Michigan State (MSU should keep it close for quite a while)
4 Texas > 12 Arkansas (UT should at least double their 4-point December win)
14 Oral Roberts > 11 George Washington (Didn’t really expect this matchup, but whatever)
2 Georgetown > 10 Texas Tech (Beware of Bobby Knight, but G’town’s just way too big for Tech)
Then...
4 Texas > 1 UNC (I’m not trying to be like Bill Simmons, but I just can’t help myself)
2 Georgetown > 14 Oral Roberts
Then...
4 Texas > 2 Georgetown
I'm not sure Texas' defense is capable of this, but I had to pick at least one team worse than a 2-seed...
The Big Board
Sometimes, filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket just isn’t enough, so for the last decade or so, I’ve been gathering with a rotating cast of seven associates to play The Big Board, named for the decidedly low-tech piece of cardstock used to keep tally. The rules are simple. Eight players combine to draft the entire NCAA field. Selection order is done by lottery. The person with the last overall pick in the first round gets the first overall pick in the second round, and you snake back up and down the ladder. Every time one of your teams wins a game, you earn a point, and two bonus points are available, one for the biggest upset in the tournament (this is determined by seed; a number sixteen defeating a number one is the greatest possible upset), and one for the lowest seed to make the Sweet Sixteen. At the end, the player with the most points wins, and each of the remaining seven players then gives the winner one *handshake per point differential (for instance, if the winner finishes with thirteen points and I finish with six, I owe him seven *handshakes).
We gathered last night for the annual affair, and I wound up with the second overall pick. As always, I tried to stay away from teams seeded seven through ten (you only have a 50-50 shot of winning your first game, and you almost always lose your second), and I hoped to focus my middle rounds on twelve and thirteen seeds, the kinds of teams that have a puncher’s chance of winning a couple of games and which also can earn you bonus points. This has come to be known as the Carl Peterson Strategy. It keeps me competitive every year, but I never win the whole thing. Typically, I’m forced to give two or three *handshakes to the winner, who typically has employed no strategy at all.
Anyway, here’s how my draft went.
1. Kansas (number one seed in the Midwest Region)
Philosophically, I had a hard time with this for the obvious reasons. But Florida went with the first pick and I was left to make a decision. If you were to put the Hawks in generic jerseys, I’d probably like them a lot. They have four or five guys who can tear your heart out on any given night, and that’s rare. They don’t have a dominant post player, but they don’t lack much else. And I figure that they’re either going to earn me several points or I’m going to jinx them and cause them to be the first number one seed in history to flame out in round one. So, really I can’t lose.
2. Washington State (three seed, East)
I don’t have any particularly strong feelings for the Cougars, but I didn’t expect a three seed to be available with the penultimate pick of the second round, so this was nearly a mandatory choice. And with the job that Tony Bennett has done this year, I suspect that he may be some sort of voodoo priest. I don’t have a lot of rules when it comes to this sort of thing, but one is that it’s always good to have a voodoo priest on your side.
3. Duke (six seed, West)
Once you get past the “ick” factor, you acknowledge that Ken Pomeroy rates the Blue Devils as the tenth best team in the country, easily making them the best available value here at the eighteenth overall pick. Who am I to argue with Ken Pomeroy?
4. Old Dominion (twelve seed, Midwest)
Here, at the next-to-last spot in the fourth round, things get hard. There are plenty of eights, nines and tens to be had, but as mentioned above, eights, nines and tens are dead ends. So I start fishing here. What teams in the lower half of the bracket have traditionally fared well? Twelve seeds. And which five seed looks ripe for the picking? Butler. Old Dominion is the choice here by default.
5. Illinois (twelve seed, West)
Another pick, another twelve seed available. Bruce Weber is a peculiar little elf, but he seems to conjure up magic from time to time, and round one opponent Virginia Tech is one of the more schizoid teams in the bracket’s top half. As a bonus, Pomeroy ranks the Illini (number 24) two spots higher than the Hokies.
6. Arkansas (twelve seed, East)
Pennies from heaven! Another twelve seed remains and I snatch the Hogs up without a thought. The fact that Pomeroy ranks them thirteen spots higher than Southern Cal makes me feel particularly contented with the pick.
7. Wright State (fourteen seed, West)
By this point, we’re just rolling the dice. But these guys beat Butler twice in the season’s last four weeks, and first round opponent Pittsburgh can be pretty anemic on offense at times.
8. Eastern Kentucky (sixteen seed, East)
At this point, I only have two choices: Eastern Kentucky and Central Connecticut State. I do my best to stay away from schools with a direction in the name, but my hand has been forced. And “central” has to be the lamest of all directions. My choice is cemented by the fact that “Central Connecticut State” has seven syllables. A quick run through the pages of my mind indicates that no school of seven or more syllables has ever won a game in the NCAAs.
I walk away from the draft feeling pretty satisfied, with the belief that I have the best roster of eight teams in the group. But I always think I have the best draft, and I always finish second. And if I end up owing a few *handshakes, so be it. In NCAA Tournaments and Big Boards, the journey is always better than the destination.
* (in jurisdictions where gambling is lawful, one dollar may substitute for each handshake)
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
NCAA Tourney Preview – West Region
Speaking of weak regions...
1 Kansas
16 FAMU/Niagara
The only drama here is who wins the play-in game. I say Niagara.
Needless to say, if Kansas loses this year in the First Round, then Billy Self needs to find himself a different profession. I’d feel a bit more comfortable considering picking KU to win the whole thing if they’d had a slip up some time recently. They had a couple near-slipups against OU and Texas (twice), but they came back and won. I think a loss down the stretch is always good for shoring up everybody’s motivations, but it’s obviously not a complete necessity. As I’ve said before, Sherron Collins has made such a tremendous difference on this team. You have a bunch of talent at every position, but guys like Julian Wright and Brandon Rush don’t necessarily have the killer intinct—they’re great as team players, but sometimes you have to have a guy willing to go balls-to-the-wall to get to the basket. Even though Collins isn’t usually their leading scorer, he’s a crunch time guy who makes everybody else’s (Wright, Rush, Chalmers, etc.) jobs easier.
Prediction: Kansas
8 Kentucky
9 Villanova
If I’m a KU fan (and lord knows I certainly am not), I’m rooting for Kentucky to win this game. Kansas should be able to handle either team, but I think Villanova would present much more of a threat due to their faster guards and more varied offensive weapons. Kentucky’s extremely bland, and KU’s defense is good enough to shut down Randolph Morris pretty easily. However, at the same time I don’t think Villanova matches up very well with Kentucky. Kentucky is big, strong, and plodding, and they would be able to create lots of mismatches with the faster, lighter ‘Nova. However, if Mike Nardi is healthy, I say ‘Nova takes this one.
Prediction: Villanova
5 Virginia Tech
12 Illinois
You never know what you’re going to get with Virginia Tech. They went 3-0 versus North Carolina and Duke and 0-3 versus N.C. State, not to mention 0-2 versus Marshall and Western Michigan. They faltered down the stretch, finishing the season 3-3. Illinois, on the other hand, is quite consistent. They’re not great, mind you, but they’re consistent and solid, and they’ll win if Tech’s not ready. Since the Hokies seem to have peaked about a month ago, we’ll take another 12 over a 5.
Prediction: Illinois
4 Southern Illinois
13 Holy Cross
Hmm. HC is always a tough out in the tourney (just ask Kansas), and SIU isn’t strong or athletic enough to run away with any tourney game. SIU is, however, more battle-tested. They’ve played Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Indiana, Butler, and Creighton (3 times) and ran away with a 15-3 conference record in a tough Missouri Valley. The Crusaders, on the other hand, went 0-1 versus NCAA tourney teams, losing at Duke. They lost at Syracuse and Hofstra as well. They’re solid, but SIU’s a much better bet.
Prediction: Southern Illinois
6 Duke
11 VCU
I sooooooo want to pick VCU in this game. I really really do. Duke’s beyond vulnerable, and VCU is both the Colonial champ and the Colonial Tournament champ. But too many people are picking this, and I think Coach K will have his team playing hard. I see Duke peaking at the Sweet 16 at best, but I’m afraid they’ll win this one. I’d be happy to be wrong, though.
Prediction: Duke
3 Pittsburgh
14 Wright State
I think Pitt’s vulnerable. I’m not saying that simply because they got rolled up by Georgetown—Georgetown’s damn good; I just think that Pitt’s strengths (Gray, tough guards) are too sporadic for them to make a run deep into the tourney. They’re taking on a Wright State team that has come on strong. Ever since they lost by 31 at Butler in early January, something clicked—they’ve won 14 of 16, including two revenge wins over Butler. They’re obviously a different team than the one who lost to Bradley by 39 over three months ago, but the biggest guy they can throw up against Aaron Gray is 6’8, 220. In fact, they only have two guys bigger than 215 on their roster. Pitt might be vulnerable, but they’re too strong and physical to lose to Wright State.
Prediction: Pittsburgh
7 Indiana
10 Gonzaga
I think it’s kind of a joke that Gonzaga got a 10 seed. Yes, they played a tough schedule, and yes, they had some lovely early-season wins against UNC, Texas, and Washington. However, they’re not the same team as they were then. They lost Josh Heytvelt to psychedelic shrooms, and their best win since November was against an extremely overrated Stanford team (more on them later). Their getting a 10-seed shows me they probably would have gotten an at-large bid had they lost to Santa Clara in the WCC Finals, and that would have made me almost as unhappy as Stanford and Arkansas getting bids (again, more on them later). They’ve got quick guards, and really, they match up pretty well with Indiana. However, I think D.J. White is the difference here—the Zags don’t have a guy who can keep up with him in the post. Indiana’s been pretty up-and-down all season, but they should be good enough to knock out Gonzaga.
Prediction: Indiana
2 UCLA
15 Weber State
A couple of weeks ago, UCLA was my pick for NCAA champ. Now, I’m not so sure. First, there’s the whole thing about how no team has ever lost in the first round of their conference tourney and come back to win the NCAA tournament. That’s a big red flag. Plus, I’m just not sure how good the Pac 10 really is. However, I absolutely love Darren Collison, and Aaron Afflalo will be playing with a purpose after his wretched performance against Cal last week. And I’m pretty sure that Collison, Afflalo and three players from an intramural team could beat Weber State.
Prediction: UCLA
Looking ahead
Here’s the early look at future rounds:
1 Kansas > 8 Villanova
12 Illinois > 4 Southern Illinois
6 Duke > 3 Pittsburgh
2 UCLA > 7 Indiana
Then...
1 Kansas > 12 Illinois
2 UCLA > 6 Duke
Then...
2 UCLA > 1 Kansas
(You didn’t think I could actually pick Kansas to win the whole thing, did you?)
NCAA Tourney Preview – Midwest Region
Apologies to those Sanity posters who, ahem, don't care much for basketball. For those who do, here's a little reading material in preparation for Thursday/Friday...
1 Florida
16 Jackson State
Despite a 2-week funk at the end of the season, I think Florida was worthy of a 1-seed, and honestly, I think they’re the only team capable of winning the national title in the whole bracket. I don’t entirely trust them, though, because no matter how good their big men are, they won’t win if their guards (Green, Humphrey) aren’t playing well and making shots. Meanwhile, while Jackson State looked pretty good winning their conference tournament on Saturday, it’s pretty easy to look good playing against similar competition. This one should be a walk.
Prediction: Florida
(Meanwhile, Billy Donovan is the perfect example of how inches decide reputations. If Georgetown makes one more play in the Sweet 16, then Florida’s run ends there and Donovan is still seen as a coach who peaked early and has been at the helm of nothing but underachievers since then. Just thought I’d throw that out there.)
8 Arizona
9 Purdue
Arizona definitely has a higher ceiling, but Purdue is exactly the kind of team that could beat them. This is probably Lute Olsen’s most talented team in a while, and if they beat Purdue, they could give Florida a pretty good game. However, I think they’re in for a dogfight here. There’s no doubt that Purdue (who I thought deserved inclusion in the tournament, by the way) is a ‘lunch pail’ type of team who has just enough skill to go with its strong hustle, and playing a team that makes a lot of brainfarts fits them perfectly. This game will either be a 6-point win for Purdue or a 17-point win for Arizona. Just to be different from a lot of folks, I’ll say...
Prediction: Purdue
5 Butler
12 Old Dominion
This is one of the weaker quadrants in the tournament. I think a lot of people could be picking a 12 vs 13 second round matchup.
Butler began to lose its edge a few weeks ago, but the committee obviously still had to give them a high seed because of their work earlier in the season. They’re obviously very fundamentally sound, but against a physical team (like SIU a few weeks ago), they can be knocked off of their rhythm. Is Old Dominion that team? I’m not sure. Is the real Old Dominion the one who whooped Georgetown or the one who got whooped at James Madison? All I know for sure is, ODU had only given up more than 70 points once in their last 12 games (all of them wins) before their breakdown against George Mason in the conference tourney. They have two guys who can rebound pretty well, and they’re very battle tested. They’ve also played better than Butler for most of the last month or so. Works for me.
Prediction: Old Dominion
4 Maryland
13 Davidson
I’m very torn here. Maryland coast to the Sweet Sixteen and give Florida a brutal battle, or they could bow out quietly to a pretty good Davidson team. As with ODU, Maryland was an extremely hot team until a brutal showing in their conference tournament. They have good athleticism, but they really don’t have an identity or a marquee player. D.J. Strawberry, James Gist, and Mike Jones are all very good, but I’m not sure who you turn to when you need a big shot in the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, since losing to Duke by 28 in December, Davidson has won 25 of 26 games and absolutely plowed through the Southern Conference tournament. You can’t get much hotter than that. They have a go-to guy in Stephen Curry (20.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG at 6’0) and a very solid point guard in Jason Richards (13.6 PPG, 7.3 APG). This is probably Davidson’s best team yet, and as Mizzou fans can attest, they’ve had some really good teams recently. They could very easily make the Sweet 16, but I really can’t justify picking both the 12 and the 13 to win. We’ll say Maryland’s athleticism comes through in the end.
Prediction: Maryland
I’m already regretting that pick. Please come through for me, Terps.
6 Notre Dame
11 Winthrop
Notre Dame is a pretty underrated team who has quietly put together a decent resume with wins over teams like Marquette and Maryland. They have five guys who score average double figures in PPG, and they’re decent across the board. However, Winthrop is one of two mid-major teams I vowed to take in the first round no matter what. Their only losses have come at North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M. They’ve pretty much blown everybody else out of the water. Their road win at SMS a couple of weeks ago probably knocked SMS out of the tourney. They go 9-10 deep, and they’ve proven they can win playing a lot of different styles. I assume this will be a pretty popular upset pick, and that usually means that the upset won’t happen, but...
Prediction: Winthrop
3 Oregon
14 Miami-OH
I don’t usually trust teams that peak in the conference tournament, and there’s absolutely no way Oregon can play any better than they did Saturday against USC. However, there’s also no way Miami-OH can play any better (or get luckier) than they did against Akron on Saturday. Miami will try to grind it out and hope that Oregon gets cold from the outside, but even if Oregon does get cold, I don’t see the Redhawks having much of a chance.
Prediction: Oregon
7 UNLV
10 Georgia Tech
I’ve had to think long and hard about this one. UNLV is rugged, strong, and damn good, as they proved at the Thomas & Mack Center this weekend, and Georgia Tech is completely and totally unpredictable. They’re young, they’re good at home, and they’re not-so-good on the road, but so was Mizzou during the Quin Snyder era, and (back when they made the tourney, anyway), they pretty consistently performed quite well in the NCAA’s. Because of that alone (and because I’ve already picked one ‘hardnosed > high upside’ game in this region), I’m going with Tech.
Prediction: Georgia Tech
2 Wisconsin
15 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Of all the 1/16 and 2/15 games, I think this will be the closest. Wisconsin is too strong and physical to lose this game, but don’t underestimate A&M-CC. They’ve been steadily building a solid program down there over the last few years, and I thought they kind of got gypped with a 15 seed. They are solid and competitive, but they’re just not quite good enough to beat a team that was at one point #1 in the country.
Prediction: Wisconsin
Looking ahead
Here’s the early look at future rounds:
1 Florida > 9 Purdue
4 Maryland > 12 Old Dominion
3 Oregon > 11 Winthrop (barely)
10 Georgia Tech > 2 Wisconsin
Then...
1 Florida > 4 Maryland
3 Oregon > 10 Georgia Tech
Then...
1 Florida > 3 Oregon
I believe Georgia Tech and Winthrop are the wildcards here. Tech could win or lose any game by 20. Winthrop has made mince-meat of most mid-major opposition, but you just never know if that will translate to tourney success. I’m not totally sold on Florida, but they’re still the best bet in this weak region.
March Madness: Why Baseball at Simmons Field is Better than the NCAA Basketball Tournament
There's more Madness in my head than in the NCAA Basketball Tourney
1) 5 Games in 5 Days!!!
Basketball offers you 49 games in these same 5 days. Problem is, you'll see about 5-10 minutes of each game. You can enjoy all 9 innings of every game this weekend. And, if you're lucky, they'll all go into extra innings!! (Let's play two!)
And you won't actually be there at those basketball games. Come down to Simmons Field and you can be a part of the action. You can yell at that TV all you want, but those refs aren't listening. At the ballpark, you can tell the home plate ump that his strike zone is more erratic than Britney Spears, and he hears you.
2) Get some Exercise!!! Get off your seats and on your feet!!!
Going to the ballpark is a great way to shed those extra pounds you added during the recent Global-Warming Deep Freeze. If you sit at home (or at your local non-smoking bar) watching basketball, the most exercise you'll get is getting up to go to the bathroom. Instead, you could be at Taylor Stadium getting a real workout:
- Park down at Reactor Field and climb the long hill up to "Johnny Hi"
- Stand up and heckle the visiting Billikens, Leathernecks, and Vikings. Do it often do it loud, do it long - a great aerobic workout.
- The 7th inning stretch: Don't just stand there and listen to the the greatest song in the world as it plays. Sing along, and do some real stretching (we used to have some Soccer girls who would do some real stretching during the 7th inning break -- worth the price of admission).
- Chase foul balls: Run up and down the stadium stairs, dodge cars in the parking lot, beat the Tiger redshirts that have been sent chasing balls.3. It's America's Pastime!!!
3) Five Reasons why Baseball is just better than Basketball:
- 206-118-2. That's MU Baseball's all-time record against Kansas. 93-164: MU Basketball vs. the Jayhawks
- Better seats. At Taylor Stadium, I can afford to sit as close to the field as I want - the equivalent of the high-rollers' seats at the Mizzou Arena. And it's certainly a better view than you'll get on the TV this weekend during the NCAA Tourney.
- Tiger Crew vs. Cheerleaders. The Tiger Crew (we still think of them as the Diamond Darlings) don't just bounce around and look good. These girls work (and look good)! They're bat and ball girls, they help the ground screw before the game and during breaks, they help with in-the-stands activities. "Hey, bat girl!"
- Baseball is a harder game to play. It must be. Look what happens to the top draft picks in each sport. Top draftees in basketball go straight to the NBA. Top baseball picks work their way up through the minors in order to prove themselves good enough to play in The Show.
- Better Uniforms. Sorry, but those baggy drawers on the basketball players just can't compete with the classic style of baseball uniforms. Take your girlfriend to the ballpark and ask her what she thinks of those tight pants the players are wearing.
4) The Tigers are playing
Sorry, but I had to say it. The place to be watch the Black & Gold in action this week is at the ballpark. Come watch a team that's been to their NCAA Tournament the past 4 straight years - and made it to the "Sweet 16" last year.
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