- Well, the second day of the US Open didn't work out quite as well for John Kelly. He shot an 84 on Friday, moving to +18 for the tournament and missing the cut by a healthy margin. More importantly he lost ground on the other amateurs. He was tied for first among amateurs heading into Friday, but he ended up 5th behind Mark Harrell (+11), Richard Ramsay (+12), Jason Kokrak (+16), and the eeeeeeevil Rhys Davies (+17). I do, however, find it very satisfying that he finished tied with Colin Montgomerie. Here's the mutigers.com write-up. And here's the greatest quote ever, from the running blog of ESPN's Jason Sobel:
6:21 p.m.: One of my fellow scribes just eloquently put this tournament -- and this sport -- into perspective:
Tiger wearing his faux Under Armour special shirt and looking like a male model. And he can't beat the fat chain smoker. Golf rocks. It flat-out rocks.
- In former Tiger news, here's a nice article about Brad Smith from the AP; meanwhile, Dave Matter sits down for a Sunday Q&A with sack master Brian Smith.
- Louisville's Chris Dominguez hit TWO MORE homeruns yesterday to help the Cardinals stay alive at the College World Series yesterday, giving him 8 HR's in his last 8 games. That kid's starting to get on my nerves...
- Here's the Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon talking about the job the area's new coaches--Mike Anderson and Rick Majerus--are handling themselves on the recruiting trail. In other basketball news, the Trib's Steve Walentik discusses what it means to the Big XII's pecking order that ATM's Joseph Jones is returning to campus.
- And finally...that Carl Edwards guy is pretty good.
Showing posts with label Big 12 basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big 12 basketball. Show all posts
Monday, June 18, 2007
Mizzou Links, 6-18-07
Thursday, April 5, 2007
It took about five minutes for my last post to become outdated
I'll believe this when I see him at a press conference in Morgantown. But wow. Just wow.
I was glad we didn't hire him a year ago. Now I'm ecstatic.
Big 12 Hoops Notes
A quick swing around the league.
That Bz You’re Hearing: I never thought I’d say this, but Colorado made a home run hire by luring Jeff Bzdelik to Boulder this week. In fact, they probably achieved the best PQC:RSP (Proven Quality of Coach to Recent Success of Program ratio) of any school in the country in this hiring circle (at this point, Frank Broyles would give an appendage to land someone as good as Bzdelik at once-proud Arkansas). The Buffs are getting an exceptional coach with local ties who has proven he can win at a very high level even without elite talent. His NBA credentials and the move from a service academy to a Big 12 school should give him a chance to recruit better athletes to plug into his already successful scheme. If he can’t win in Boulder, there aren’t many guys who can.
The move marks a subtle but perceptible shift of coaching power within the league. Assuming Bob Huggins stays at Kansas State (see below for more on that), all six of the programs in the north will feature experienced, proven head coaches who previously led other programs to the NCAA Tournament. When Bob Knight finally hands the reins over to his son Pat at Texas Tech, Rick Barnes of Texas and Texas A&M’s Billy Gillispie (assuming he stops flirting with every big-name job in the country) will possess a significant gap of experience and success over their four southern counterparts.
The Passion of the Hugs: OK, yeah, so I’m enjoying the melodrama surrounding West Virginia’s courtship of Bob Huggins. It makes for great theater. And while it would be a low-rent move to leave after just one year, you can’t blame Hugs for thinking about it. How could he not? The top job at your alma mater opens up, perhaps for the last time during your career, and your lifelong friends ask you to leave a place you’ve barely established roots to return as conquering hero and earn seven figures annually. It’s beyond tempting.
And it almost makes me feel sorry for the purple people of the little apple, for whom this could be a soul-crushing development. Those folks bought in hard, only to face the prospect of the rug being pulled out. It’s like the most elaborate episode of Punk’d ever.
Au Contraire, Blair: I think Kansas City Star college hoops writer Blair Kerkhoff is very good at what he does, but his projection of Kansas State as a top ten team in 2007-08 seems a reach. Despite the losses of Cartier Martin and Lance Harris, the Cats’ first and third-leading scorers, respectively, there is some returning talent. David Hoskins, a destitute man’s Charles Barkley, has become a better player than he has any right to be, Clent Stewart and Blake Young are competent guards, and Jason Bennett and Luis Colon are large. Beyond that, though, the hopes seem pinned squarely on Bill Walker, an explosive athlete now dealing with surgically-repaired ACLs in both knees, and Michael Beasley, a million-dollar talent who may have a ten-cent head.
I think Beasley, the MVP of the McDonalds’ game, can help make the Cats very good, but can he take them to a higher stratum than Kevin Durant was able to take Texas this past season? Beasley is a top five national talent (KSU fans like to call him number one, but only one major service puts him there; no one else has him higher than fourth), but Durant was a once-in-a-generation player, perhaps the best freshman ever, and he was complemented by a talented (if inexperienced) roster that included D.J. Augustin, a guard light years beyond anyone on the Wildcat team.
I think K-State can lose twice to Kansas, finish in the top third of the league, and make the NCAA field, maybe even as a five or six seed. But top ten? With inexperienced talent up front and a starless back court, I doubt it.
That’s Quite A Limb You’re Standing On, Frank: Kansas State recruiting coordinator Frank Martin goes out there – way out there.
"I think he [Michael Beasley] will make the same type of impact that KevinNo pressure, kid. Just be better than the best freshman there’s ever been.
Durant [sic]," Martin said. "I saw both of them in high school, and in my
opinion, Michael is a better player (than Durant). I felt that way and I
still feel that way."
The K-State staff’s evaluation of Beasley certainly explains why Bob Huggins prison shanked his good pal Bobby Lutz. Doesn’t justify it, but it explains it.
Our Best to Bob: Former Missouri assistant Bob Sundvold (also known as Jon’s big brother) is at home recovering after a truly frightening ordeal. Here’s to a thorough recovery.
Things to do while Manhattan, KS slowly descends into madness...
Since Bill pointed out an MU golfer playing the Masters this weekend, I figured I'd offer up the link to watch Amen Corner live on Masters.org.
The Masters as a club may get flack from having strict standards, not allowing female members, etc. But, they've done a tremendous job with the website for the tournament and the ability to watch three of the most famous holes in golf without interrupting, is truly a great thing.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Nothing to do with Mizzou...
...but here are a few Big XII-related notes...
- I found this Barry Switzer profile pretty interesting. He's an interesting paradox...a sleazy, wonderful human being.
- Nebraska got a double dose of bad injury news today at Spring Practice. And unlike Mizzou's injuries (KNOCK ON WOOD, STAT), these are a lot more lasting.
- And finally, Billy Gillispie looks like he's staying at ATM. I'm thinking this Arkansas coaching search could turn into something almost as enjoyable as Nebraska's football coaching search a few years ago. "But really! We're great! We can hire anybody we want! Whaddo you mean we've been turned down by 7 guys? We didn't really want them..."
Monday, March 26, 2007
Now that that's over and done with...
I can finally relax a bit and look forward to bask... football, football season!
I knew I'd get that one right.
So, probably nobody gives a rip about my thoughts for next year's Kansas team. But, what good is this pulpit if I don't use it. Actually, I'm more writing this to see if anyone does a break-down on next year's MU squad as well, since I don't have quite the familarity with it as I did when I was still in school.
First off, I'm sure by now you've heard this bit of news. To any Arkansas readers we may have, who may think Bill Self is now cleaning out his office to head to Fayettville... allow me this moment - Ha ha ha ha ha! I'm better now.
Arkansas may call Self, but one, he's already said he's not going anywhere; Arkansas, Kentucky, etc. And, two, KU's response will probably be "Homie don't play that game!" And, will proceed to throw more money at Self's feet. Sorry, Arkansas, but Bill Self is going to be in Lawrence for the 2007-08 season.
I tell you who won't be in Lawrence... Brandon Rush. At least I think there's about a 60 to 75% chance Rush will make the NBA leap this summer. All indications are he could be a mid-round pick... next year. But, the reality is, Rush is already old for a college sophomore, let alone an NBA rookie, especially in a league that drafts as much on "up-side" as it does on results. Unfortunately, that means Rush will lose another year of earnings potential if he does stay at KU, and that's a chance he can't risk. Depending on how things shake out, he'll probably go mid- to late-first round and be perfectly happy as a off-the-bench defender/spot up 3-point shooter. He's not a marquee-build-your-team-around-him guy, but he would give any squad quality minutes, and after his initial 3 year rookie contract, probably bounce around the league from year-to-year.
This next player may be a bit idealistic on my part, but I am about 70% sure Julian Wright is coming back to Kansas next year. By all accounts, he promised his mom he would earn a degree before going to the draft, and if not for his mom, he would have not come to Kansas in the first place. So, I think that shows just how much weight she carries when it comes to his decisions. Plus, he did really dissappear in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8, so that may chew at his mind in making the decision. I leave a 30% window, because if someone were offering me $3 million a year for 3 years to leave school... I would have to really think about it.
Now, Darrell Arthur may think about testing the draft waters, but the reality is, he faded way to much in the second half of the season, especially in conference play to expect anything more than a second round pick. I think Self will make that readily apparent to him and he'll remain in Lawrence, at least one more year.
Everybody else stays in a Kansas uniform. Plus... one major addition: Cole Aldrich. From many accounts, I get the feeling this kid is the consistent low-block scorer Kansas has not had in uniform since Nick Collison. The kind of guy you can give the ball to 5-feet from the basket, and you know he's going to get it in there. Kaun is a great defensive player but is not a force offensively, Jackson could be a similar guy to Aldrich, but I think he's much better served as a really tenacious rebounder. Both Wright and Arthur seem to do better a little further away from the basket. But, this Aldrich kid, he could be something special before all is said and done with his time at KU.
I'm not into season predictions this far away from the opening tip... but I think all of these new coaches are going to do their damnest to improve their squads, and I think KU is prepared to meet that challenge head on.
So, now I have to ask, does anyone have early returns for MU next year, especially the recruits that Anderson is bringing in? I think this is the part of the transition from mid-major to major basketball that coaches stumble with the most. Consider Bruce Webber at Illinois. It's becoming more and more clear that he cannot recruit Big Ten style players to Illinois. He probably doesn't have a problem getting similar kids like he did at SIU, but in the long run... those guys don't cut it when you're going up against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State on a nightly basis. I'm curious if Anderson is going to be able to recruit those kids that will buy into his system, but also be players that you could say: "Yeah, I could any of them at Texas, Kansas or any other school in the conferece." Thoughts?
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Big XII Tournament Predictions
Figures. I’m running a blog about Big XII sports and have quickly shown my propensity for writing 4,000+ words about benign topics, and for the finale of championship week and the Selection Show, I’ll be...in Vegas with The Beef. Might have some blogging capability, might not. So before we depart, I figured I’d share some thoughts about this weekend, both the Big XII tournament and the NCAA tourney as a whole.
First, the Big XII tourney.
Thursday
8 Iowa State vs 9 Oklahoma – Just as OU was starting to play pretty good ball earlier this season, they took a trip to Hilton and ended up on their behinds. Iowa State has been pretty inconsistent offensively, and every time it looks like they’re figuring out Greg McDermott’s Missouri Valley style of play, they take a few steps backwards. They’ve got a shot in this game, but this will basically be a home game for OU. OU by 9.
5 Texas Tech vs 12 Colorado – Now that CU has ruined my 6-20 prediction, I hope they go down in flames. Well, there’s almost no question they’ll go down, especially after winning one last game for Patton last weekend...the only question is, how fast will they dive? I say they hang around for about 20-25 minutes. Tech needs this one (no way do they get into the NCAA tourney losing to CU), and they seem to play quite well in “Must Win” games. Tech by 14.
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 Nebraska – Here’s where the homer in me emerges again (just like when you ask The Beef to pick a Penn State football game...the biases come out whether you like it or not). On Monday, Nebraska dominated OSU in every phase of the game, opening up a gigantic lead before OSU made a late run. NU is a fundamentally-sound team that knows how to draw fouls and make its free throws, and OSU has been anything but fundamentally sound lately. But Obi Muonelo made 8 3’s in his return to the court the other night, and OSU could be a different team with 3 scoring threats instead of just 2. Nebraska will have to take some of the focus off of JamesOn Curry to make sure Muonelo won’t go off again, and that could lead to some openings. If OSU can keep NU from making an early run, I say they take this one. Playing in the evening session, this will really almost be like a home game for OSU. OSU by 7.
6 Missouri vs 11 Baylor – Baylor finally got the upset I was looking for from them on Saturday, albeit against a Boggan-less OSU team. Without Aaron Bruce, Baylor matched up pretty well with Mizzou last time, taking advantage of a Mizzou lapse to make a major run in the second half before running out of gas. However, that was at Mizzou Arena. Sadly, Mizzou’s a better team away from home (look at their five home-and-home series against North Division teams...their home result was better than their road result only once), and like Colorado, Baylor got a nice win in their last game...taking their Upset Potential Quotient (yes, I just made that up) down a few notches. Mizzou by 9.
Friday
1 Kansas vs 9 Oklahoma – Yes, OU played Kansas very well at Lloyd Noble. However, a) ask Missouri how Kansas played in the rematch after Mizzou almost took them in Lawrence, and b) this game isn’t at Lloyd Noble. OU will have the crowd in its favor, but only by about 60/40. Not nearly enough. KU by 13.
4 Kansas State vs 5 Texas Tech – I’ll get into this more below, but this is almost an NCAA knockout game here, and I really don’t know what to think about it. Tech took K-State in Manhattan, but that was before things really started clicking for Huggy Bear and the Wildcats. However, while they’ve had more slip-ups, Tech has also won more ‘big’ games this year than K-State has. Therefore, Tech by 3.
2 Texas A&M vs 7 Oklahoma State – After losing at home to Mizzou, OSU just went in the tank against ATM at Gallagher-Iba. OSU matches up poorly with ATM for one simple reason—ATM’s strengths are the same as OSU’s strengths, only stronger. Acie Law > JamesOn Curry, and while OSU probably has the single best defender in Marcus Dove, ATM’s team defense > OSU’s team defense. I see OSU showing up and playing pretty well here, but the matchup just doesn’t favor them. ATM by 4.
3 Texas vs 6 Missouri – Speaking of bad matchups...even though ATM just thumped us in College Station, I was still really hoping we’d end up matched up with them in the second round instead of Texas. The matchups just do not favor Mizzou in any way, shape, or form. Texas has a great ballhandler in Augustin, and needless to say they’ve got just a smidge of a scoring and rebounding presence inside. Mizzou would have remained competitive in Austin in January had Matt Lawrence and Stefhon Hannah been able to make the open looks they got in the first half, and since then Keon Lawrence has emerged as a scoring threat as well. IF those three are able to create some offense early, AND Stefhon Hannah is able to avoid foul trouble, Mizzou has a fighting chance. But as they’ve proven this year, they had lots of “fighting chances” and were rarely able to close. I love Mike Anderson, but I don’t think Mizzou is ready to win this game yet unless Texas is very much looking ahead to ATM on Saturday. Texas by 8.
Saturday
1 Kansas vs 5 Texas Tech – So the only upsets I’ve picked so far are a 9 over an 8 and a 5 over a 4. I’m one brave prognosticator. I’m torn with this one. On one hand, a) Tech beat up on Kansas earlier this year...KU made it a game late, but Tech dictated the pace all game, and b) the last couple of years, Bobby Knight’s teams have overachieved in the postseason while Bill Self’s teams have not. However, on the other hand, c) see what I said above regarding Kansas’ level of play in rematches, and d) this isn’t the normal Bill Self team. Sherron Collins is making sure of that. I really really really want to pick Tech here, but I can’t. I’m too much of a weenie. KU by 5.
2 Texas A&M vs 3 Texas – BLOODBATH. I haven’t picked too many tight games so far, but if this game is half of what last week’s game in Austin was, then it will reverse that trend. Great matchups, and lots of explosiveness on both sides. ATM is about as mentally strong as a team can be at this point, but it seems like they’re only about 90-95% of where they were at about a month ago. At some point, having to prove your mental strength too many times wears you down—just ask Oklahoma State. However, ATM is infinitely deeper than OSU, and at this point, Billy Gillispie is a better coach than Sean Sutton. So I think ATM has more in the tank. ATM by 1.
Sunday
1 Kansas vs 2 Texas A&M – I don’t know what to think about this game either, and it really will be relatively meaningless for both sides (by this point, KU will have locked up a 1-seed and ATM will have locked up a 2), so I’m simply going to attempt to jinx the Jayhawks. KU by 5.
Man, for somebody who loves upsets, I sure did wuss out on that one.
Now, for other NCAA thoughts...
The Bubble
We’ve got ourselves a pretty unique bubble this year. Near as I can tell, there are basically 18 teams battling for 8 tourney bids:
ACC – Clemson, Florida State
Atlantic 10 – Xavier, UMass
Big XII – Kansas State, Texas Tech
Big East – Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten – Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Colonial – Old Dominion, Drexel
Missouri Valley – Missouri State (who will, from this point onward, always be referred to as SMS on this blog)
Mountain West – Air Force, San Diego State
Pac 10 – USC, Stanford
Now, some of these teams (everyone but SMS, ODU, and Drexel, actually) still have an opportunity to play their way into an automatic bid. But right now, about 8 (depending on conference tourney upset bids like Wright State) of them will get in. Looking at basic rules of thumb, most of these teams have a pretty strong case, so it will be interesting to see where they stand with the selection committee.
* Clemson and Florida State both had strong non-conference records, are in the RPI Top 50, and went at least 7-9 in the ACC.
* Xavier’s 13-3 in the A-10 and is up to 32 in the RPI (UMass also went 13-3, but their RPI is only 55).
* Kansas State has Bob Huggins and a winning Big XII record. Their RPI (60) hurts them, but 10-6 in the Big XII and 21-10 overall is usually enough to get in, especially for teams not
named Colorado.
* Texas Tech has Bob Knight and 3 wins against Top 10 teams. Nobody else can say that. Plus, their peripherals (9-7 / 20-11 / RPI #43) are strong.
* Syracuse went 10-6 in the Big East. That’s usually enough. West Virginia went 9-7 in the Big East, which is usually enough as well. However, the fact that the Big East has about 32 teams now means that teams’ conference schedules can vary wildly in toughness.
* Illinois’ peripherals (9-7 / 21-10 / #35) almost make them a shoo-in in some years. Same with Purdue’s (9-7 / 20-10 / #46). Michigan’s been playing good ball lately, but 8-8 in a weak Big Ten hurts their case considerably.
* The Colonial is riding an all-time high after George Mason’s run last year, and that could help Old Dominion (24-8, #40) and Drexel (22-8, #39). However, neither made the conference tourney finals (ODU was upset by, of all teams, George Mason), and that could hurt them. It’s damn near impossible to figure out how the committee will view these two teams.
* Missouri State, I mean, SMS (21-10, #38) might be viewed positively simply because they were just about the last team left out last year. However, they didn’t finish strong after a great non-conference showing (beat Wisconsin, almost beat Oklahoma State back when OSU was a good team), and getting whooped by Creighton in the MVC semis took them down quite a few notches. Can’t say I’d cry if they were left out again.
* Air Force (22-7, #25) is probably safe, especially after spending much of the season highly ranked, but they fell to a 4-seed in the Mountain West tourney, which doesn’t look good, and they’ll likely have a tough semifinal matchup against BYU. Lose badly in the semis (or in the quarters to Wyoming), and suddenly they’re on shaky ground.
* San Diego State, on the other hand, has come out of nowhere to post a 19-9 record, #54 RPI, and 3-seed in the MWC tourney. They probably haven’t gotten enough attention to warrant a bid, but their résumé stacks up surprisingly well.
* USC, like K-State, seems like they’ve accomplished more this year than they actually have. They have some good wins and bad losses, but 21-10 with a #53 RPI isn’t amazingly impressive. An 11-7 Pac 10 record probably gets them in, but I don’t think they’re as safe as some think they are. It would behoove them greatly not to lose tomorrow to Stanford (18-11, #56), who is on the outside looking in right now, in my eyes anyway. A lot of people have them safely in, but I just don't see it.
My pecking order at this exact moment is as follows:
Probably In
Air Force
Xavier
Syracuse
USC
Old Dominion
Drexel
Purdue
Clemson
Probably Out
SMS
Illinois
Kansas State
Texas Tech
UMass
San Diego State
Florida State
Michigan
Stanford
West Virginia
Looking at the schedule, only two of these teams had games today—Syracuse beat Uconn this afternoon and West Virginia vs Providence (if WV loses, they’re toast) tonight. Tomorrow, however, is huge.
* Clemson vs Florida State. Basically an elimination game. Whoever loses will have a lot of trouble making a case for themselves.
* Michigan vs Minnesota. If Michigan (or scUM, as my Mich State buddy calls them) beats Minnesota, then beats Ohio State on Friday, they’re in. Anything less, and they’re probably out.
Illinois vs Penn State. Obviously, if Illinois loses, they don’t deserve to be a tourney team. Beat Penn State, then Indiana, and they’re probably in. Lose to Indiana...yeah, I have no idea where they stand then.
* Texas Tech vs Colorado. Replace “Illinois” with “Texas Tech,” “Penn State” with “Colorado,” and “Indiana” with “Kansas State,” and there you have it.
* Xavier vs Dayton. If Xavier wins the A10 tourney, that opens up another at-large bid for somebody else. If they lose to somebody other than UMass along the way, they’re suddenly pretty shaky.
* UMass vs St. Louis/Duquesne. Same with Xavier, only shakier. They have a lot of ground to make up.
* Air Force vs Wyoming. For strange reasons, The Beef and I will be pulling HARD for Wyoming tonight. Back in 2002, when we drove to Albuquerque for the Ohio State/Mizzou game, the second game of that session was Wyoming/Arizona. Wyoming fans were the best combination of drunk and excited (but not too scary) I’d ever seen, and after Rickey Paulding’s dunk in the second half, the Wyoming fans were cheering for Mizzou every bit as loudly as the Mizzou fans. If Wyoming beats AFA tomorrow, we’ll have our chance to pay Wyoming fans back by attending the Mountain West semis in Vegas Friday night, cheering every bit as loud (and drunk) for them as they did for us.
* San Diego State vs Colorado State. If they beat CSU, then UNLV on Friday, suddenly they might have a strong chance of making the NCAAs (aside from the fact that they could win the auto bid). Until then, they’re still on the outside looking in.
* USC vs Stanford. Not quite an elimination game, at least not for USC, but close. Stanford needs to make the finals to have a strong chance, and USC just needs to win this one to feel safe.
And yes, I plan on watching ALL of these games in Vegas tomorrow. I rule.
Anyway, hopefully I’ll be able to do a little typing in Vegas (that’s what people do in Vegas, right?). If not, I’ll post some thoughts upon arrival on Monday.
I know you’re a-twitter just thinking about it.
Saturday, March 3, 2007
Big XII Predictions, 3/3
Well I missed two games this week...can't say I was surprised about missing the Baylor game, though the ISU-NU game proved once again that you never know what you're going to get out of the bottom 8 teams in this conference. I thought ISU was toast and NU was clicking...and naturally ISU won on the road.
So what do we have this weekend?
11am
Texas at Kansas - It's weird that the biggest game of the weekend's happening at 11am on Saturday, but whatever. You really don't ever know for sure what you're getting from Texas either--if Augustin is comfortable and Abrams is making open 3's, then they could win a national title. If only one of those things is happening, they could make the Sweet 16, assuming Durant is clicking. If neither of those things are happening, then they'll bow out in the NCAA First Round even if Durant scores 45. Kansas, however, has been frighteningly steady over the last month or so, so I've got to play the odds here. KU by 8.
12:30pm
Nebraska at Colorado - History in the making here. Before the season, when Ricardo Patton announced that he was quitting at the end of the season because he didn't get a contract extension, my one thought (without looking at the schedule) was "Well...he just clinched a 6-20 season." Of course, CU had 28 games scheduled, and 27 is the standard minimum, so 6-20 was going to be pretty tough to pull off. But then the UC-Davis and TCU games were cancelled due to Mother Nature inflicting some wrath, and suddenly CU enters their final regular season game with, you guessed it, a 6-19 record. I'll be super pissed if CU wins this game. Honestly, CU showed some fight against MU the other night, so a win in Patton's last game is probably 50/50 (80/20 if he gets the same kind officiating that Dan McCarney got in his final game...sorry...bitter). But hey, fate has worked in my favor so far with this one. NU by 5.
Oklahoma State at Baylor - My last chance to get that whole "Baylor can jump up and bite someone" statement correct. And fate's once again working on my side, since it was obviously fate that made Mario Boggan half-assedly headbutt Cartier Martin late in an easy OSU win Tuesday night. So you know what pick I have to make. BU by 3.
And yes, half-assedly is a word. It's in a Barenaked Ladies song, therefore it truly exists.
2:30pm
Oklahoma at Kansas State - You know Jeff Capel will have his team playing pretty tough, but you have to figure that, with KSU's NCAA resume starting to crumble to the ground, they're going to play tougher. KSU by 6.
3:00pm
Mizzou at Texas A&M - After a none-too-impressive home win against Colorado, I'm not totally sure why I think Mizzou's going to put up a really strong fight today, but I do. They're not going to win or anything, but I think this is going to be a tight game. MU's not scared of a tough road environment (they played better on the road against NU, KU, CU, and ISU than at home...and maybe KSU too), and ATM might be at least a smidge off their game after losing their chance at the Big XII title. But Law IV's too clutch, and ATM's just a little too big for me to pick a big upset here. ATM by 6.
7:00pm
Texas Tech at Iowa State - No idea how this game got the prime time slot, but oh well. Texas Tech always has quite a bit to play for, and while Hilton Magic has been a bit inconsistent this year (needless to say, there wasn't a lot of magic going when they got whomped by Mizzou there). They're still 4-3 at home in conference, and Tech is 2-5 on the road, so it's still pretty hard to pick against them there. But I'm going to. Tech by 1.
And while we're in the mood for predictions...
Today's Conference Tourney Finals:
Atlantic Sun
1 East Tenn St vs 2 Belmont - Being that ETSU tried really hard to lose to both 8-seed Stetson and 4-seed Lipscomb while Belmont (Mizzou's Bucknell...sort of) has coasted, I'm going with Belmont by 8.
Big South
1 Winthrop vs 6 VMI - I'm an upset junkie. I want every conference tournament to implode. I wanted the Evansville/Drake winner to win the MVC tournament (Drake beat Evansville, then quietly bowed out to SIU...boo), and I'd be excited to a scary degree if VMI were to beat Winthrop, especially since a) VMI has basically played like a really really poor man's early-'90s Loyola Marymount, and b) this would probably mean the Big South would get 2 teams in the NCAA tourney. However, Winthrop seems about 20 points better than everybody else in the league, and even though VMI has polished off the #2 and #3 seeds in the tournament already...well, Winthrop hasn't lost a game to a Big South team all year...why would they start now? Winthrop by 17.
Ohio Valley
1 Austin Peay vs 2 Eastern Kentucky. I'm thinking this will be the best of the Finals games today. Let's Go Peay swept both games from the Colonels this season, and I've decided to break out college hoops cliche #1239: It's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. Unbeatable logic there. EKU by 1.
Southern
1 Davidson vs 3 College of Charleston. CofC broke up my dream of getting two SoCo teams in the NCAA's. I think if Davidson would have beaten Appalachian State in the finals, ASU had enough of a resume to sneak in...it would have been really close, anyway. I can't figure ASU gets in after their 2-pt OT loss last night. And to punish CofC, I'm picking Davidson by 14.
UPDATE: Two things: First, I almost forgot to post how the Big XII tourney bracket would look if things shook down the way I outlined above. Second, I should go ahead and make my pick for Monday night's OSU/NU game to make everything complete.
Oklahoma State at Nebraska - I was prepared to take NU, no questions asked, until they lost to ISU. Now I really don't know. Thinking about matchups, though, OSU has Boggan (assuming he plays) and Kenny Cooper, and they should at least do a competent job against Aleks Maric. The slight OSU homer is coming out in me here, but if Boggan plays, I say OSU by 5. (If not, NU by 6, but I haven't heard that Boggan's not playing, so we'll go with the former for now.
And that makes the standings...
1. Kansas 14-2 (27-4)
2. Texas A&M 13-3 (25-5)
3. Texas 12-4 (22-8)
4. Kansas State 10-6 (19-10)
5. Texas Tech 9-7 (20-11)
6. Missouri 7-9 (18-11)
7. Oklahoma State 7-9 (21-10)
8. Iowa State 6-10 (15-13)
9. Oklahoma 6-10 (15-14)
10. Nebraska 6-10 (17-13)
11. Baylor 4-12 (14-15)
12. Colorado 2-14 (6-20!)
So the Thursday matchups would be...
8 Iowa State vs 9 Oklahoma
5 Texas Tech vs 12 Colorado
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 Nebraska
6 Missouri vs 11 Baylor
And the Friday matchups would be...
1 Kansas vs ISU/OU
4 Kansas State vs Tech/CU
2 Texas A&M vs OSU/NU
3 Texas vs MU/BU
...which would be pretty bad for Mizzou, who matches up way better (in my opinion) with ATM than Texas.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Big XII Predictions, 2/26
Monday
Kansas @ Oklahoma – When things clicked for Sherron Collins, Kansas went into an entirely different gear. Rush, Wright, Chalmers, Robinson, etc., can all go into an offensive funk from time to time, and those funks seemed to overlap quite a bit, causing KU to slip up at random times. However, since Collins has found his way (the switch seemed to flip with about 5 minutes to go in the first Missouri game), and since Self has started to trust him (which seemed to happen after he caught hell for not playing Collins at the end of the ATM game), I’ve started to wonder if KU is actually capable of one of those funks again. I mean, I’m sure they are, but...I’m just not sure if they’re capable of doing it against anybody but a really, really good team.
That said, tonight’s game will be a good test of my theory. OU’s been solid at Lloyd Noble this season (Saturday’s game against Texas notwithstanding), and this is a game that KU quite possibly would have lost last year. However, I just can’t figure out a reason not to pick them to win. When the offense starts to get stagnant, Collins just lowers his head, bulls toward the rim, and gets a layup. Seriously, he’s like Stefhon Hannah with 20 pounds of muscle. KU’s funks never seem to last more than 2-3 possessions now, and I just don’t see OU presenting enough of an obstacle for them at this point, not after they took KSU’s best punch in an extremely hostile environment last week and won relatively comfortably. KU by 10.
Tuesday
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State – The OSU homer is coming out in me. They’re in a massive slide right now, but I just cannot see them losing three straight at Gallagher-Iba. The crowd just won’t let them. That’s pretty much the extent of my analysis. OSU by 3.
Wednesday
Colorado @ Missouri – It’s Senior Night at Mizzou, so hopefully Marcus Watkins gets the start. No matter who starts, I’ll be pretty disappointed if this game ends up within single digits. Colorado played decent for 20 minutes or so against K-State on Saturday, and they might have at least some semblance of life to them, but Mizzou has just played too well lately (even in Saturday’s loss). They’d have to regress pretty significantly for this game to be close, and hopefully that doesn’t happen. MU by 16.
Iowa State @ Nebraska – Nebraska has the best pure (i.e. old-fashioned) post man in the league, and Iowa State has just about packed it in. NU by 13.
Baylor @ Texas Tech – On Saturday, I said that I still thought Baylor could jump up and bite somebody. Well, there aren’t many opportunities left. However, I’m thinking beating OSU at home on Saturday is a lot easier than beating Tech on the road.
Eh, screw it. Baylor by 2.
Texas A&M @ Texas – It really hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but the race for Big XII Champion has gotten quite interesting. It’s not often that three teams have a chance to win with a week left in the season. To hold onto their tenuous lead, ATM has to win in Austin. If they win that, they get an easier game at home against Mizzou to clinch the title. However, if Texas wins, they have an opportunity to claim the title by winning in Lawrence this weekend. If ATM slips and KU beats Texas, they’re champs. I don’t have a rooting interest in this, really, but I guess ATM winning would be the least painful result of the three. Therefore they won’t win. Texas by 4.
And if things take place according to these predictions, here’s how the standings will look heading into the last weekend of the season.
1. Kansas 13-2
2. Texas 12-3
3. Texas A&M 12-3
4. Kansas State 9-6
5. Missouri 7-8
6. Texas Tech 7-8
7. Nebraska 6-8
8. Oklahoma State 6-8
9. Oklahoma 6-9
10. Iowa State 5-10
11. Baylor 4-11
12. Colorado 2-13
I went 6-for-6 on Saturday, but these games are a bit tougher. Plus, needless to say, I’m picking quite the longshot in Baylor.
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Big XII Predictions, 2/24
Texas @ Oklahoma - The only game that features two teams in the top half of the conference, I don't really have a good feel on this one. Oklahoma has been twice the team at Lloyd Noble, but they don't appear to have the athleticism to matchup well with Texas. However, if they get on a roll with the 3-pointer, Texas is a young enough team to get in a rut. Texas won by 11 in Austin, and they have more to play for, so I'll say UT by 1-2.
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech - I'm a bit of an OSU fan (they've always been my #2 team), so part of me keeps thinking that they'll right the ship and get things going. But I'm pretty sure that's the biased part of me talking. Their only win in the last 6 games was a 2OT win over Tech in Stillwater, but if home court is worth anything, you figure Tech will win. At some point, OSU will get its third wind (maybe), but probably not in Lubbock. Tech by 8.
Kansas State @ Colorado - Eww. In front of 2,500 fans at the Coors Center, KSU by 13.
Texas A&M @ Baylor - I keep thinking Baylor's going to jump up and bite someone, but Billy Gillispie's team seems too mentally strong to lose a game like this at this point in the season. ATM only won by 10 in College Station, so it will likely be tight, but with the Big XII title in the balance, ATM finds a way. ATM by 2.
Missouri @ Nebraska - This is a 'head vs heart' pick, only my head is saying MU and my heart is saying NU. Figure that one out. MU is a better, stronger team than they were when these two teams met in Columbia. In that game MU deflected a couple passes right to an open guy for 3 in the first half and just couldn't buy a shot in the middle section of the game. My head says MU will continue to stay warm, while NU's cooled off just enough to lose this game (especially after their FIFTY-THREE point loss to KU last weekend). However my heart is warning me that MU is due a step backwards, and Lincoln has been the location of lots of steps backwards for lots of teams over the years. NU by 4.
Iowa State @ Kansas - Death. Destruction. Carnage. KU by 24.
So if this all takes place, here's what the standings would look like after today. Tech would jump over OU and MU into 5th with the win, while Nebraska would jump OSU and ISU into 8th. That's about it.
1. Texas A&M 12-2
2. Kansas 12-2
3. Texas 11-3
4. Kansas State 9-5
5. Texas Tech 7-7
6. Missouri 6-8
7. Oklahoma 6-8
8. Nebraska 5-8
9. Oklahoma State 5-8
10. Iowa State 5-9
11. Baylor 3-11
12. Colorado 2-12
Honestly, MU's best chance of success in the Big XII tournament comes if they can lock down the 5th slot. That would likely lead to a CU walkover in the first round and another rematch with K-State in the second. A 6th-place finish (which is where they'd likely fall if they lose today) would likely lead to a matchup with Baylor (who fought well in Columbia), followed by another game with Texas, against whom they match up terribly. So yeah...would be nice if they won today...
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Stranger in a strange land...
Fair to say, I'm sure no one expects a KU fan to show up and offer substantive, informative talk to a blog which is Mizzou-centric. But, hey, someone has to.
To pay homage...
First, big thanks to Bill for extending the invitation to allowing me to offer my own opinion and snarky comments on, hopefully, not just Missouri sports, but also the Big XII, and my own center of expertise, KU.
A nice win for the Tigers last night. I'd be lying if I said I watched any of the game, but from what I understand, Mike Anderson's squad continues to play as well on the road as any other team plays at home. And, as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can atest... sometimes better than the home team.
Few things in this world would make me openly cheer for the Tigers, however, if MU winning out, and doing damage in the Big XII tournament knocks K-State out of contention for the NCAA's... I would not only sing True Son at the top of my lungs... but I would also giggle like a school girl.
Just wanted to throw that one out there.
On the subject...
Of K-State. I'd like to address your attention to this photo from KUSports.com. It raises many questions that I frankly cannot keep to myself.
Consider, by all accounts this chicken was dead when it landed on the floor of Bramelege Coliseum. And, I would even go so far as to say, freshly dead. Given that fact, someone had to purchase this chicken the day of the game, and at some point kill it. Whether this was prior to getting the doors or after... it also means that someone was sitting in the arena... holding a dead chicken for at least a couple of hours. And, KSU fans think they can talk trash of any kind?
I'll give the Antlers some credit. Their antics, while bizzarre, do not normally require the death of livestock. Yes, they may dress in drag for the KU game... but obviously the members of the Antlers enjoy it, since it has become an annual tradition ("Hey guys, we're wearing dresses on Saturday!" "Yaaah!!") But, for a fan to willingly kill a barnyard animal just to throw it onto the basketball court during pre-game... I feel a trip to a couch or padded cell is in order.
And, finally, because I can...
I look at this current KU team... and I want to book tickets to Atlanta (if I had the financial wherewithall), I really do. But, I would really like to see this team finish un-defeated in the regular season, and win the Big XII tournament. There is something to be said for playing the way KU has the past four games or so. Every possession has mattered... whether it was the sacrificial blood-letting against Nebraska or taking the K-State crowd out of it in the second half.
But, I've seen too many teams, KU especially, grow complacent when the competition is no longer as tough in the latter half of the season. That's why Monday's game terrified me. That's why Saturday's game worries me. And every game from now until KU proves they are not the team that folds when the opponent finally bites back.
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