- Well, the second day of the US Open didn't work out quite as well for John Kelly. He shot an 84 on Friday, moving to +18 for the tournament and missing the cut by a healthy margin. More importantly he lost ground on the other amateurs. He was tied for first among amateurs heading into Friday, but he ended up 5th behind Mark Harrell (+11), Richard Ramsay (+12), Jason Kokrak (+16), and the eeeeeeevil Rhys Davies (+17). I do, however, find it very satisfying that he finished tied with Colin Montgomerie. Here's the mutigers.com write-up. And here's the greatest quote ever, from the running blog of ESPN's Jason Sobel:
6:21 p.m.: One of my fellow scribes just eloquently put this tournament -- and this sport -- into perspective:
Tiger wearing his faux Under Armour special shirt and looking like a male model. And he can't beat the fat chain smoker. Golf rocks. It flat-out rocks.
- In former Tiger news, here's a nice article about Brad Smith from the AP; meanwhile, Dave Matter sits down for a Sunday Q&A with sack master Brian Smith.
- Louisville's Chris Dominguez hit TWO MORE homeruns yesterday to help the Cardinals stay alive at the College World Series yesterday, giving him 8 HR's in his last 8 games. That kid's starting to get on my nerves...
- Here's the Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon talking about the job the area's new coaches--Mike Anderson and Rick Majerus--are handling themselves on the recruiting trail. In other basketball news, the Trib's Steve Walentik discusses what it means to the Big XII's pecking order that ATM's Joseph Jones is returning to campus.
- And finally...that Carl Edwards guy is pretty good.
Showing posts with label NCAA Baseball Tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA Baseball Tournament. Show all posts
Monday, June 18, 2007
Mizzou Links, 6-18-07
Friday, June 15, 2007
Man oh man...
...Louisville is just CRUSHING the ball right now in the CWS. Rice had given up 8 runs in 5 postseason games, and Louisville has scored 10 in 5 innings at this point...
...I should also mention that I'm starting to feel EXTREMELY bitter about losing to them right now...I should probably just switch back to the US Open. Watching professionals score double bogey after double bogey always makes me feel better.
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Super Regional Coverage...
...for those who are looking for a good place for Super Regional coverage, ESPN.com has a pretty good page set up...if you can find it. They hide it away pretty good, but it's got a schedule of all the games on one page, which is nice. Anyway, here it is.
I'm sure everybody already saw that OSU got whomped by Louisville yesterday (a nice twist of the knife there), but in case you didn't notice, it looks like ATM blew a golden opportunity against Rice, giving up the tying run in the bottom of the 9th and the winning run in the bottom of the 10th.
Monday, June 4, 2007
Monday NCAA Thoughts...
I guess that's why Mizzou's Saturday night win was so important--they lost yesterday, but they still have another chance today.
It was a game of missed opportunities on both sides. With the bases loaded and one out in the 4th, Louisville grounded into an inning-ending double play. With the bases loaded and NO outs in the 4th, Mizzou scored only one run after a double play and a fly out. With a runner on third and one out in the 5th, Louisville couldn't advance the runner. With one on and one out in the 5th, Mizzou grounded into an inning-ending double play. With runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out in the 7th, Mizzou failed to score. And finally, with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out in the bottom of the 9th, Mizzou failed to score again.
In the end, I guess the Cardinals won because they had more opportunities. Tiger pitchers allowed 14 baserunners (8 hits, 1 BB, and FIVE hit batsmen), while the makeshift Louisville staff allowed only 12 (6 hits, 5 BB's, 1 hit batsman). Credit goes to Louisville's pitchers for making it work, and credit goes to Cardinal 3B Chris Dominguez for hitting an absolute bomb (the game winner) in the 8th. However, after Dominguez seemed to yell and talk trash to every person in a Tiger jersey while rounding the bases, I'm not thinking we have to worry about an emotional letdown from Mizzou.
Here are some game-related links: Gabe from PowerMizzou gives an instant analysis of the game as it happens, and then talks about it afterward. Here's the KC Star write-up of the game's testy finish.Louisville third baseman Chris Dominguez beat the Tigers with a two-run eighth-inning home run deep into Missouri’s left-field bullpen. Then Dominguez, throughout his trot around the bases, verbally taunted the Missouri players. He turned backward. He hopped up and down. He gestured toward a Missouri team straining to stay on the top step of its dugout.
Should be an interesting finale. Hope the Tigers will be as worked up as the crowd surely will be.
Dominguez said Mizzou catcher Trevor Coleman said something — Dominguez couldn’t remember what — as Dominguez lingered at home plate before starting his trot. Dominguez said he “said some things,” too.
And here is the updated pitcher usage for the weekend...
Missouri
Aaron Crow - 9.0 IP, 2 R
Ian Berger - 6.0 IP, 2 R
Rick Zagone - 5.0 IP, 4 R
Kyle Gibson - 3.1 IP, 1 R
Greg Folgia - 2.0 IP, 2 R
Ryan Gargano - 1.0 IP, 1 R
Scooter Hicks - 0.2 IP, 0 R
Louisville
Justin Marks - 5.0 IP, 3 R
Kyle Hollander - 7.1 IP, 1 R (3 games, pitched twice yesterday)
James Bellanger - 4.0 IP, 4 R
Zack Pitts - 4.0 IP, 9 R (2 games)
Skylar Meade - 3.0 IP, 1 R
Gavin Logsdon - 5.2 IP, 0 R (3 games)
Trystan Magnuson - 3.0 IP, 1 R (2 games)
Colby Wark - 3.0 IP, 3 R (2 games)
Chris Dominquez - 0.1 IP, 2 R
Andrew Salgueiro - 0.2 IP, 0 R
Last I heard, Jamieson was leaning toward starting ace Aaron Crow on 2 days rest. He should be good for 2-3 innings, Kyle Gibson should be available for another 3 innings, and Hicks, Gargano, etc., should be able to put in an inning or two as well. This are still set up pretty well for the pitching staff. As for Louisville, the biggest thing will be simply that closer Trystan Magnuson will be available...he threw two innings in the Miami game yesterday and didn't pitch last night.
We'll see what happens.
As for other Big XII teams...
ATM forced a final game against UL-Lafayette, winning 4-1 last night.
OSU came back to beat Arkansas, 7-6, last night, and will face today's MU-L'ville winner. In other words, Mizzou can host a Super Regional if they win today. Wow.
After eliminating Baylor, TCU too was eliminated by Rice, 3-1.
The Texas/UC-Irvine game was suspended in the 7th with Irvine up 6-5. Texas has to win to force a final game.
Nebraska crushed UC-Riverside, 11-1, in the early game yesterday, but they were eliminated by Arizona State, 19-7, in the nightcap.
Alright...HUGE game this afternoon. Go Tigers!
Sunday, June 3, 2007
It will be Louisville...
...I more or less got my wish. Louisville wins, 8-7, and they had to use four more pitchers in the process.
Going into this evening's game, here's the updated pitcher usage...
Missouri
Aaron Crow - 9.0 IP, 2 R
Rick Zagone - 5.0 IP, 4 R
Kyle Gibson - 3.1 IP, 1 R
Scooter Hicks - 0.2 IP, 0 R
Louisville
Justin Marks - 5.0 IP, 3 R
Kyle Hollander - 4.2 IP, 0 R (2 games, pitched today)
James Bellanger - 4.0 IP, 4 R (pitched today)
Zack Pitts - 4.0 IP, 9 R (2 games, pitched today)
Skylar Meade - 3.0 IP, 1 R
Gavin Logsdon - 3.0 IP, 0 R (2 games)
Trystan Magnuson - 3.0 IP, 1 R (2 games, pitched today)
Chris Dominquez - 0.1 IP, 2 R
Colby Wark - 0.0 IP (3 batters faced), 1 R
Five of their pitchers have already pitched twice this weekend, including their lights-out closer (Magnuson), who went two innings today against Miami.
In other words, now is the time. Louisville's offense is hitting the ball well at the moment, but if the Tigers are patient (and they usually are), they will get plenty of good pitches to hit today.
Other early Big XII results...
ATM beats Ohio State, 10-4. They now have to beat UL-Lafayette twice.
Arkansas is up 4-0 on Creighton in the 8th. Winner has to beat Oklahoma State twice.
Baylor is up 5-3 on TCU in the 8th. Winner has to beat Rice (gulp) twice.
Texas beat Wake Forest, 7-4. They now have to beat UC-Irvine twice.
UPDATE, 5:28pm: Baylor gave up SEVEN RUNS IN THE 9TH to TCU and lost, 10-5. Their season is now over. Also, Arkansas ended up winning, 6-0.
Sunday NCAA Thoughts...
Man, what a big win yesterday. Nothing like 3,630 people crammed into a stadium designed for about 2/3 that. I now know what it's like to watch an entire game while basically leaning against the left field fence. It took the crowd a while to get into the game (which makes sense because it took Mizzou a while to get into the game), especially out in the LF corner, but from the 6th inning on, everybody was engaged and excited.
And speaking of the 6th inning...it was, by my count, 56 minutes long. Three pitching changes and the fact that Louisville pitchers all seem to take about 45 seconds between pitches brought about a pretty big drag in the middle of quite a bit of excitement...but anyway...
After giving up three runs in the 2nd and 3rd, Rick Zagone was settling down nicely. He picked off Pete Rodriguez in the 4th and national steals leader Boomer Whiting in the 5th, and he was helping Mizzou regenerate some momentum after they blew a bases-loaded-one-out opportunity in the 4th. Finally, down 3-0 in the 6th, the Mizzou offense took over. They'd gotten quite a few good swings off of Louisville starter Justin Marks, and they finally stopped hitting it right at the defense. Ryan Lollis doubled, then Jacob Priday and Trevor Coleman hit back-to-back bombs, and the game was tied. Two walks, a hit batsman, two pitching changes, and about 30 minutes later, the Tigers had the bases loaded with no outs. They did manage an RBI fielder's choice from Gary Arndt, but that was it. They managed to turn a 4-run inning into a slight disappointment, and Louisville immediately tied the game off of a now-cold Zagone in the bottom of the 6th.
Man, what a luxury it's been having a guy like freshman Kyle Gibson available in relief this year. In 27 appearances (all but two of them from the bullpen), he's averaged 2.5 innings, and that's basically what he gave last night. He's got 75 K's (and only 18 BB's) in 65 innings, and he was tough as nails last night. He came in for Zagone with no out and two on in the 6th (with the score tied at 4-4), and closed the door with 2 K's and a groundout.
After Louisville rarely swung and missed with Zagone on the mound (2 K's in 5 IP), Gibson blew pitches by the Cardinals. In the biggest game of his short collegiate career, Gibson threw 3.1 innings, struck out 5, allowed only 4 baserunners, and most importantly, got the win. He's been thrown into numerous tough situations as a freshman, and he's emerged with 8 wins and 7 saves. Clutch. He did run into a bit of trouble in the 9th, but Scooter Hicks (1.44 ERA, 6 saves) bailed him out, and the Tigers moved on with the win.
Last night's win was huge because now Missouri has to win only one more game to make the Super Regional. With the loss, Louisville now has to win three in a row--one against Miami early this afternoon, then two against Missouri.
Really, things couldn't have shaped up any better so far for Mizzou. They did have to use three pitchers yesterday, but through two games, here is the pitcher usage for the remaining regional teams...
Missouri
Aaron Crow - 9.0 IP, 2 R
Rick Zagone - 5.0 IP, 4 R
Kyle Gibson - 3.1 IP, 1 R
Scooter Hicks - 0.2 IP, 0 R
Louisville
Justin Marks - 5.0 IP, 3 R
Kyle Hollander - 4.0 IP, 0 R
Skylar Meade - 3.0 IP, 1 R
Gavin Logsdon - 3.0 IP (2 games), 0 R
Zack Pitts - 1.2 IP, 7 R
Trystan Magnuson - 1.0 IP, 0 R
Chris Dominquez - 0.1 IP, 2 R
Colby Wark - 0.0 IP (3 batters faced), 1 R
Miami-FL
Enrique Garcia - 7.1 IP, 6 R
Scott Maine - 4.0 IP, 7 R
David Gutierrez - 2.1 IP, 1 R
Danny Gil - 1.2 IP, 0 R
Alex Koronis - 1.0 IP (2 games), 2 R
Michael Rudman - 1.0 IP, 2 R
Kyle Bellamy - 0.1 IP, 2 R
Teddy Kaufman - 0.1 IP, 0 R
Whoever plays Mizzou at 6:30 tonight will do so having used also their #3 starters and probably at least another reliever or two. As I mentioned yesterday, the only way Mizzou was able to come back and win the Malibu Regional last year was by getting a complete game in Sunday's Game 1 (and then another one in Sunday's Game 2). Both pitching staffs are a mess right now, and hopefully a) today's 12:15 game will be a shootout that requires a bunch of pitchers, and b) Mizzou can jump on whatever semblance of a makeshift staff Miami/Louisville is able to put together.
Personally, I'm rooting for Louisville in this game, simply because of the familiarity involved and the fact that Miami has a more explosive offense. If the 6:30 game turns into a shootout, Miami's got a little more potential for holding on and winning a 13-12 game or something.
So what's happening in the other regionals? I'm listing these in the order they're found on the official bracket...
Nashville
2-0: #2 Michigan
1-1: #1 Vanderbilt, #4 Austin Peay
Charlottesville
2-0: #1 Virginia
1-1: #2 Rutgers, #3 Oregon State
---
Long Beach
2-0: #2 UCLA
1-1: #1 Long Beach State, #4 UI-Chicago
San Diego
2-0: #2 CS-Fullerton
1-1: #3 Minnesota, #4 Fresno State (#1 San Diego was eliminated!)
---
Tempe
2-0: #1 Arizona State
1-1: #2 UC-Riverside, #3 Nebraska
Oxford
2-0: #1 Ole Miss
1-1: #2 Southern Miss, #4 Sam Houston (my OU buddy is pretty ticked off that Troy got in over OU and laid a giant egg in the regionals)
---
Wichita
2-0: #2 Arizona
1-1: #1 Wichita State, #4 New Orleans (who barely lost to Arizona, 9-8, last night)
Round Rock
2-0: #2 UC-Irvine
1-1: #1 Texas, #3 Wake Forest
---
Houston
2-0: #1 Rice
1-1: #2 TCU, #3 Baylor
College Station
2-0: #2 UL-Lafayette
1-1: #1 Texas A&M, #3 Ohio State
---
Columbia, MO
2-0: #1 Missouri
1-1: #2 Miami-FL, #3 Louisville
Fayetteville
2-0: #3 Oklahoma State (back to being on fire, man they've been schizo lately)
1-1: #1 Arkansas, #2 Creighton (beat Albany yesterday, 21-11!)
---
Tallahassee
2-0: #2 Mississippi State
1-1: #1 Florida State, #3 Stetson
Myrtle Beach
(games postponed due to rain yesterday)
1-0: #1 Coastal Carolina, #2 Clemson
0-1: #3 St. John's, #4 VCU
---
Columbia, SC
(games postponed due to rain yesterday)
1-0: #1 South Carolina, #3 Charlotte
0-1: #2 NC State, #4 Wofford
Chapel Hill
2-0: #1 North Carolina
1-1: #2 East Carolina, #3 Western Carolina
Only 6 of the 14 #1 seeds who have played two games remain undefeated, which shows that Mizzou is in pretty good company at the moment.
Go Tigers!
Saturday, June 2, 2007
Saturday NCAA thoughts...
So much for strong pitching matchups. Technically I got two things right with my predictions yesterday: 1) Mizzou would win, and 2) there would be more runs scored in the first game than the second. Beyond that? Yeah, I pretty much struck out. Am thinking I'll just pick winner/loser now...my score-predicting abilities are sorely lacking...so without further adieu...
2 Miami-FL vs 4 Kent State - Day One really couldn't have worked out any better for Mizzou. Not only did Louisville beat Miami-FL, but while Aaron Crow pitched a complete game for the Tigers, Miami and Louisville both had to use about 18 pitchers to get through the game. Not that that will make so much of a difference today, but as the weekend wears on, staff fatigue starts to play a part. The only way Mizzou was able to win 4 in a row and come back from a Friday night loss in the '06 Malibu regional, was by getting complete game wins from Rick Zagone (2-1 over UCLA) and Aaron Crow (4-1 over Pepperdine) on Sunday. An early loss (especially one that requires six pitchers) really damages Miami-FL's chances. Coming back is not impossible, as Mizzou proved last year, but there is now significant pressure on the Hurricane pitching staff. I assume freshman Eric Erickson will shut KSU down relatively easily, and that will help get the staff some rest. But even with a win today, Miami will have to win three more to escape the regional. Eh, screw it...I'll post score predictions...I ain't scared...Miami 11, Kent State 3.
1 Missouri vs 3 Louisville - Rick Zagone vs (I assume) Justin Marks. I could think long and hard about how the run-'n'-gun Louisville offense will put pressure on the Mizzou defense and other matchup issues...but instead, I'll just close my eyes and recall that in Zagone's last postseason start, he came through unbelievably. He'll do so again today. Missouri 5, Louisville 2.
Oh, and here's a list of Friday upsets...just because...
In Charlottesville...
3 Oregon State over 2 Rutgers, 5-2 (You had to figure the defending champs would bring it...)
In Columbia, SC...
3 Charlotte over 2 NC State, 6-3
In Fayetteville...
3 Oklahoma State over 2 Creighton, 6-4 (Go Pokes!)
In Long Beach...
4 UI-Chicago over 1 LBSU, 4-1
In San Diego...
4 Fresno State over 1 San Diego, 6-2
3 CS-Fullerton over 2 Minnesota, 7-1
In Wichita...
4 New Orleans over 1 Wichita State, 7-6 (scoring 3 in the 9th)
Other Big XII Scores
In Tempe...
2 UC-Riverside over 3 Nebraska, 10-5
In Round Rock...
1 Texas over 4 Brown, 8-2 (it was 3-2 in the 7th...interesting for a while...)
In Houston...
2 TCU over 3 Baylor, 3-2
In College Station...
1 ATM over 4 Le Moyne, 7-2
Go Tigers! The weather was kind yesterday, most of it moving south of Columbia...we'll see if we get as lucky today...
Friday, June 1, 2007
NCAA Baseball Preview: Friday Games
If they actually get to play the games today, which seems to be getting less certain by the second--there were supposed to be major storms earlier in the week, but then they were supposed to come this evening, and now they're supposed to come late-morning--here's how I see them playing out.
2 Miami-FL vs 3 Louisville
I'm always one for talking myself into picking an upset. That's why my March Madness brackets always suck (okay, that's not totally true...I finished second in my pool four straight years...but in the words of philosopher Ricky Bobby, if you ain't first, you're last!). Louisville has a legitimate chance in this game, but only if they get on base...which, of course, is about as profound as saying they'll win if they score more runs. But while Miami is the big-name team in the region, Louisville has the tools that a mid-major team needs to make noise against the biggies. They stole an insane amount of bases--led by 3rd-team AA Boomer Whiting's 69 thefts--and they play an offensive style that you don't see often. They put a lot of pressure on a team's defense. If the Cards manufacture a couple of runs off of likely 'Cane starter Scott Maine (who has allowed a decent 1.32 baserunners per inning), then Louisville starter Zack Pitts (8-3, 1.78 ERA) and closer Trystan Magnuson (8 saves, 0.92 ERA) are good enough to make a lead stick.
However, who am I to bet against history? Louisville's playing in its 2nd NCAA Regional ever. Miami's playing in its 35th in a row. The NCAA introduced the Super Regional format nine years ago, and Miami's made the Super Regional every year. Streaks end at some point, but I don't make a habit out of picking against them. I'll say Miami 7, Louisville 3.
1 Missouri vs 4 Kent State
I've said I like upsets, and now if I pick Mizzou I'm picking chalk. But do you really think I'm going against my team right now? Kent State has strong pitching and a decent offense, but well, Mizzou's the 1-seed.
Overall, I'm quite torn about Mizzou's regional chances. They've lost all of two series this year, they don't swing at bad pitches, and they've got an insane record in close games (15-3 in games decided by 2 runs or less)...they just know how to win games. But stats always even out in the end, and is the fact that they've overachieved relative to their statistics (going by runs scored and allowed, they should have been about 36-20, not 40-16) a good thing at this point? Do the stats even out in the postseason, or does it wait till next year? Do the freshmen that have carried the Mizzou offense at times (Trevor Coleman, Aaron Senne) continue to come through? I'm really not sure. Obviously we'll find out as the weekend progresses, but for today I'm going to say Mizzou 6, Kent State 1.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
NCAA Baseball Preview: Miami-FL
It’s pretty obvious that, while Louisville and Kent State have strong pitching and a few offensive weapons, Miami-FL represents the biggest obstacle standing between Mizzou and their second straight Super Regional. Last year, a 36-21 Hurricane squad travelled to Lincoln for the NCAA Regionals, and blew through three straight games to the Super Regional (and then the CWS). Granted, it helped that they never actually had to face Nebraska, who choked and died before they could even face Miami, but nonetheless...Miami went on the road and came up big.
This year, it’s a 36-22 Miami team making its way to Columbia for the NCAA Regionals (their 35th straight NCAA berth). Last year’s freshman star, Jemile Weeks, is one of many weapons Miami possesses, and though they’ve been a bit unsteady at times this year, you have to figure they’ll be ready to roll this weekend. Here’s their official site. Playing in the ACC, they’ve obviously gotten their fill of competition. On the season, they went 12-13 against NCAA tourney teams (3-0 vs UCLA, 0-3 vs UNC, 1-0 vs Rutgers, 1-2 vs Virginia, 2-2 vs Clemson, 1-2 vs N.C. State, 2-2 vs Florida State, 2-2 vs Wake Forest).
Unlike Louisville and Kent State, Miami’s strength lies in its offense. That’s not to say the pitching staff is totally devoid of talent. Their staff ERA is a decent 4.14, and of their four pitchers who have made at least 10 starts, three of them have an ERA of 3.51 or better. The Hurricanes staff is led by possible Friday night starter, junior lefty Scott Maine (5-5, 3.03 ERA), and freshman lefty Eric Erickson (10-3, 2.00). Their #3 starter—junior righty Enrique Garcia (7-4, 3.51)—is probably the best #3 in the region. The bullpen, led by senior Danny Gil (3-0, 3.68, 5 saves), is solid.
While the Miami offense hasn’t hit for as high an average (.293) as Louisville and Kent State, a) they’ve played a much rougher schedule, b) they get on base at an insane .395 clip, and c) their slugging numbers (.442 SLG, 53 HR’s, 111 2B’s) make them quite dangerous. The lineup is a bit top-heavy, with 5 of the top 6 in the batting order hitting .340 or better and a significant dropoff in the bottom third. But hey, when you have guys like sophomore 1B Yonder Alonso (.377 BA, .520 OBP, .719 SLG, 18 HR’s, 74 RBI’s, 13 SB’s...yikes!) in the middle of your lineup, you can afford a dropoff. Leadoff hitter CF Blake Tekotte (.341/.441/.473, 15 SB’s), is dangerous, but let’s face it—most of the lineup is. The aforementioned Jemile Weeks (.309/.401/.500, 5 HR’s, 5 3B’s) is actually only about the 4th or 5th best hitter on the team.
The Hurricanes’ up-and-down season was pretty accurately defined by their play at the ACC Tournament last weekend. As the conference’s 5-seed, they began play against 4-seed Clemson. Scott Maine pitched a decent 6.2 innings, gave up 3 runs (2 earned) while allowing 10 baserunners, but the score was tied at 3-3 after 9. And after 12. 3B Roger Tomas scored on an Alonso sac fly in the top of the 13th, but Miami reliever John Husey allowed 2 runs in the bottom of the 13th, and Clemson pulled off a 5-4 victory. In their second game of the tournament, Eric Erickson shut down 1-seed Florida State in the losers’ bracket, going 8 innings and allowing 3 runs on just 8 baserunners (Erickson is not a strikeout pitcher, but he does not allow many baserunners). Led by 3 RBI’s from Jemile Weeks (3-for-5 with a triple and 2 runs scored) and catcher Richard O’Brien, Miami pummeled the ‘Noles, 9-3. A win over Wake Forest on 5/26 would possibly send the ‘Canes to the ACC Title Game.
However, a night after hitting Florida State hard, the Miami bats couldn’t get going against the Demon Deacons. Combined with a poor start from Enrique Garcia (4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 4 BB’s), Wake Forest cruised to a 7-3 win. Weeks had another good game, going 2-for-4 with his 2nd triple in two nights, and O’Brien had another 2 RBI’s, but it never got going for Miami.
As I said at the top, you just have to figure Miami will have its A-game when it lands in Columbia. The Hurricanes are one of the most accomplished teams in NCAA history; they have a couple strong lefties and a solid all-around offense (led by Alonso and his insane stats), and if they can beat Louisville on Friday night, they’ll have quite a solid shot at making the Super Regional.
Go Tigers!
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
NCAA Baseball Preview: Louisville
The 40-20 Louisville Cardinals are making their second ever trip to the NCAA Regionals. They’ll play Miami-FL Friday, 1pm, at Taylor Stadium. Here’s a link to their official website. The Cardinals put up some pretty dominating numbers in the Big East (not exactly a power conference in baseball, though they did manage to send three teams to the tourney this year), and whereas I assumed they didn’t have much of a chance against Miami-FL when the pairings were announced, I’m not quite as sure now.
Like Kent State, the Cards are led by their pitching. Like Kent State, only 4 of their 13 staff pitchers had an ERA over 4.00. However, their team ERA (2.89) and their main cogs are far superior to those of the Golden Flashes. Their ace, Friday starter Zack Pitts (8-3, 1.78 ERA), has put up sick numbers, and their Saturday starter, Justin Marks (7-2, 2.44 ERA), was the Big East rookie of the year. Meanwhile, closer Trystan Magnuson (3-1, 0.92 ERA, 8 Saves, 49 K’s, 8 BB’s in 40 IP) is automatic. However, they haven’t exactly faced a murderous schedule. They loaded up on cupcakes in their non-conference schedule (Missouri fans think Missouri’s schedule was pretty weak? Louisville’s toughest non-con game was against Southern Miss.). How this staff will fare against two strong offenses—Missouri and Miami-FL—is up in the air.
Pitching is Louisville’s strength, but the offense is capable. The schedule might have been weak, but the numbers (.304 team BA, .375 OBP, .460 SLG, 47 HR, 406 runs, and an astounding 141 stolen bases) speak for themselves. The Cards are led by senior Isaiah Howes (.387 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 1.122 OPS) and senior Logan Johnson (.372 BA, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 1.188 OPS). It appears that the offensive gameplan is, get on base, steal to get in scoring position, then let Howes and Johnson drive you home. Senior Boomer Whiting is pretty much the perfect prototype of a leadoff hitter (.457 OBP, 69 stolen bases, 64 runs scored). Guys like Whiting give mid-major teams the potential to scare the big boys—if he gets on base, he can create havoc against anybody.
So as far as I can tell, Louisville played 8 games against NCAA Tournament teams and went 2-6—1-2 vs Rutgers, 1-2 vs St. John’s, 0-1 vs Kent State, and 0-1 vs Southern Miss. Rutgers is the best team they played—a 2-seed in Virginia’s regional—so we’ll take a look at how the three games they played at last week’s Big East Tournament unfolded. After defeating Villanova in Game One of the tourney, the 3-seed Cards sent Justin Marks to the mound against the 2-seed Scarlet Knights on 5/23. Marks (who the Tigers would likely play if matched up on Saturday) went 6 innings, and while he had a 2-4 K-BB ratio, he only gave up 1 run; meanwhile, the Cards lit up Rutgers starter Casey Gaynor. Boomer Whiting had 2 hits, 2 runs, and 2 RBI’s, while Isaiah Howes and 3B Chris Dominquez added 2 RBI’s each, and Louisville coasted, 8-1. The win meant Rutgers would have to defeat Louisville twice to make the Big East finals—and they did.
The Cardinals sent Colby Wark to the mound to try to eliminate Rutgers on 5/25. He would tread water through four innings, but Rutgers scored 3 times in the 5th to take a 5-4 lead. Louisville retook the lead, 7-5, but a 6-run seventh (which included 4 unearned runs) gave Rutgers a lead they wouldn’t relinquish; the Knights survived 2 HR’s and 3 RBI’s from Howes and a late Louisville charge to win, 12-10, and force an ‘if necessary’ game later that same day. Everybody must have been dead-legged from all the baserunning in the first game—Louisville starter James Belanger gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, and Trystan Magnuson pitched three scoreless innings in relief, but it didn’t matter. Isaiah Howes’ third HR of the day was the only run Louisville could muster, and a 3-1 Rutgers win sent Louisville home to await the NCAA tourney committee’s decision.
Louisville is a team devoid of big-game experience, but they have just the right tools—one great baserunner, two power-hitters, lots of seniors, and a staff of strong pitchers who don’t walk a ton of batters—to compete with anybody. Teams like this make me nervous, but Miami-FL and Missouri have both beaten teams better than Louisville. If Pitts and Marks are out of their minds, they might shut down either Miami or Missouri on Friday and Saturday, but it’s unlikely they’ll pull off both, and in the end this region will still probably come down to the Miami-Missouri matchup.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
NCAA Baseball Preview: Kent State
Here's a link to Kent State's baseball page. In looking at their schedule/results, this is a pretty capable team. They are only 33-24 overall, but a) they're battle-tested, having played 10 non-conference games against tourney teams (0-3 against Wake Forest, 2-1 Florida!, 1-0 versus regional-mate Louisville, 0-3 versus Southern Miss), and b) they've won 16 of 17 overall.
The Flashes are very much led by their pitching, with three decent starting pitchers--junior Evan Smith (4-4, 3.18 ERA...Friday night's likely starter), freshman Kyle Smith (4-2, 3.84) and senior John Pacella (2-4, 4.21)--and a strong closer in senior Ryan Davis (6-3, 1.78 ERA, 8 Saves). They have a staff ERA of only 3.47. In fact, only 4 of their 13 pitchers have an ERA over 4.00. Very impressive. In their 10 games against NCAA tourney teams, they were outscored 51-39, which for college baseball is pretty damn low-scoring.
Mizzou will face an offense that gets on base a lot (team OBP: .357) and hits mostly singles (team SLG: .404). They have two power hitters in freshman LF Anthony Gallas (.322 BA, .424 OBP, 10 HR, 43 RBI) and sophomore DH Greg Rohan (.274 BA, .337 OBP, 11 HR, 42 RBI), and otherwise I guess they just try to single you to death. They averaged less than 1 steal attempt per game, so they don't really play small ball...I guess they just try to get somebody on base for Gallas and Rohan and hope that they win with a 3-run HR.
The most impressive item on the Kent State resume this year has to be their series win against Florida in late-February. After getting swept by a decent Wake Forest team the weekend before (by scores of 8-4, 8-6, and 8-7), the Flashes headed to Gainesville and took the Friday night game, 10-4, led by a 5 IP/0 ER performance by John Pacella and 2 RBI's each from Greg Rohan, 3B Andrew Davis (their other strong hitter, with a season BA of .336 and 7 HR's), and 1B Brad Winter. The teams combined for 9 errors. Saturday, the Gators struck back, nailing KSU starter Dominique Rodgers for 5 runs in 2 innings and coasting to a 7-0 win. Sunday, however, saw Kyle Smith start his first collegiate game and dominate the Gators with 5 scoreless innings. The Golden Flashes got a 6th inning HR from Andrew Davis, Ryan Davis got a 2-inning save and Kent State got a 1-0 win.
I assume Tim Jamieson will go with Aaron Crow on Friday night instead of trying to save him for Miami/Louisville on Saturday or something. I'd prefer it...no need to tempt fate. This is a competitive team, and it is absolutely essential that Mizzou come away with a victory. I think they used a lot of karma by losing the first game in the Malibu Regional last year before ripping off four straight victories...would behoove them not to have to do that again...
Monday, May 28, 2007
NCAA Baseball pairings announced...
...there will be MUCH more to come this week. I'll be reading and posting about the other teams in the region, and hopefully trrip will have a decent amount to say too. In the meantime, I'll just post the pairings for Big 12 teams and share some initial thoughts...
Columbia, MO Regional
1 Missouri vs 4 Kent State
2 Miami-FL vs 3 Louisville
I kind of figured we'd end up with a Missouri Valley team or something simply for the sake of attendance. They surprised me, however, by setting up a regional where Louisville is the closest team. Miami-FL is the big name in the bracket, and I assume a few people will be predicting them to win this regional. I haven't read much about Louisville or Kent State, but Miami's played a lot of big names this year, winning and losing their share. They had a very strange ACC Tournament, falling to Clemson in extra innings, beating Florida State...and then losing to 8-seed Wake Forest.
For Columbia Regional ticket information, click here.
I will say that, if Missouri makes it out of this regional, they lucked out very much getting a possible matchup with Arkansas in the Super Regional. Arkansas is the 7-seed, and it's close enough that a few Missouri fans might travel.
And speaking of the Fayetteville Regional...
Fayetteville Regional
1 Arkansas vs 4 Albany
2 Creighton vs 3 Oklahoma State
Creighton ended up in Fayetteville instead of Columbia, and I thought OSU might still have a shot at a 2-seed. Arkansas is obviously the favorite here, but OSU will travel well, and 10 days ago, they were one of the hottest teams in the country. Six straight losses (including four to Mizzou) later, they're one of the coldest teams in the country. Strange. Who knows what to expect out of them?
Houston Regional
1 Rice vs 4 Prairie View A&M
2 TCU vs 3 Baylor
Baylor's won 6 of 7 and 10 of 14, and they will take on a TCU team with an insane record (46-12). The winner of that matchup will be rewarded with a game against the #2 overall seed. Baylor is hot, and they have experience against both higher-seeded teams in the region (they lost to TCU, 6-3, and Rice, 7-0), but I'm not altogether optimistic about their chances because, even though they've played plenty of solid teams, they haven't beaten many. If Baylor does emerge from this region, they might face a pretty familiar foe, Texas A&M.
College Station Regional
1 Texas A&M vs 4 Le Moyne
2 UL-Lafayette vs 3 Ohio State
ATM found themselves at the last possible moment. A loss to Nebraska on the first day of the Big XII tournament gave them five losses in six games, and they had no chance of hosting a regional or getting a 1-seed. But then they broke off three straight dominating wins, beating Texas, Kansas State, and Baylor by a combined 28-11 and winning the Big XII Tournament. They ended up getting (I think) the #15 overall seed and will face probably the toughest challenge from UL-Lafayette, a team who had a decent case for a 1-seed themselves.
It stinks that these four Big XII teams are paired together the way they are (Missouri/OSU, ATM/Baylor). If all four teams win win their respective regionals (not that that will actually happen), only a maximum of two of the four would make it to Omaha.
Austin Regional
1 Texas vs 4 Brown
2 UC-Irvine vs 3 Wake Forest
Big XII (sorry, Big 12) Champ Texas ended up with the #4 overall seed, and they've drawn a pretty favorable regional here. They didn't play all that well in the Big 12 Tourney, giving up 10 runs to K-State (they did score 19, however), getting whooped by ATM, and squeaking by Nebraska. However, I figure the odds are pretty good that an Augie Garrido team won't go 2-and-done two years in a row (they hosted a regional last year and quickly lost to Stanford and NC State). Chances are, they'll win this region pretty easily. If they win, they'll face the winner of the Wichita Regional (1 Wichita State, 2 Arizona, 3 Oral Roberts, 4 New Orleans) in the Super Regional.
Tempe Regional
1 Arizona State vs 4 Monmouth
2 UC-Riverside vs 3 Nebraska
Nebraska limped to a 5-8 finish, and their 30-25 record is far from impressive. However, they got credit for a) playing a brutal schedule, b) finishing 14-13 in the Big XII and c) being Nebraska. I wouldn't expect them to advance here, but you never know. UC-Riverside is obviously good (ESPN had some good commentary about all the emerging mid-major teams on the West Coast during the selection show today), but you can never know what to expect with highly-ranked mid-major teams. If the Huskers can take the first game, they'll be in pretty good shape...though they'll still have to beat the #5 overall seed, Arizona State, twice.
If they do win this regional, they'll face the winner of the Oxford Regional (1 Ole Miss, 2 Southern Miss, 3 Troy, 4 Sam Houston).
The notable snub in the Big XII was Oklahoma. They played well in the Big XII tournament, and they hoped that (and their decent 34-24 record) would get them into the NCAA's, but an 11-16 conference record probably did them in.
Alright, more to come in later days, but I figured that might whet everybody's appetite...
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