Mizzou-Ole Miss: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou-Illinois

I’m sticking that link at the top so you can check out any needed explanations of the categories below.

Success Rate by Quarter

So is it a cause-effect here that when Mizzou goes up big, their play crumbles? Or would we have crumbled anyway, and we were just lucky to have a big lead? If it’s the former, I guess that’s not the worst problem to have—better to play badly when you have a big lead than to play badly when the game’s tight. If it’s the latter...well, it’ll catch up to us soon enough, won’t it...

Q1: Mizzou 50.0%, Ole Miss 40.0%
Q2: Mizzou 59.1%, Ole Miss 55.0%
Q3: Mizzou 57.1%, Ole Miss 61.9%
Q4: Mizzou 36.4%, Ole Miss 38.5%
Total: Mizzou 51.9%, Ole Miss 49.4%

For the season...

Q1: Mizzou 44.9%, Opponents 36.0%
Q2: Mizzou 51.2%, Opponents 55.0%
Q3: Mizzou 59.5%, Opponents 55.3%
Q4: Mizzou 35.1%, Opponents 39.0%
Total: Mizzou 47.6%, Opponents 47.7%

However, when games are within less than 17 points...

Q1: Mizzou 44.9%, Opponents 36.0%
Q2: Mizzou 51.2%, Opponents 51.6%
Q3: Mizzou 75.0%, Opponents 25.0% (just 4 plays each)
Q4: Mizzou 35.1%, Opponents 37.5%
Total: Mizzou 46.8%, Opponents 41.0%

Eventually we’ll get enough of a sample size to be able to tell what the primary causes of Mizzou’s defensive lapses are—youth, sustained intensity, lack of killer instinct, lack of talent, whatever—but for now we really don’t know the whole story. All we know is, when the game is tight, Mizzou does enough to win.

QB Success Rate

As always, we’re now going to look at only plays taking place when the game was within less than 17.

Mizzou
Chase Daniel – 29 for 58 (50.0%)
Martin Rucker – 2 for 3 (66.7%)
TOTAL – 31 for 61 (50.8%)

Ole Miss
Seth Adams – 20 for 51 (39.2%)

It should be noted that pretty much all of Seth Adams’ big pass plays came when Mizzou was up 21-0, 35-7, 38-13, or 38-19. The defense was a lot stiffer when the game was tighter.

Run Success Rate

Mizzou
Tony Temple – 3 for 11 (27.3%) (season: 19.2%)
Chase Daniel – 4 for 6 (66.7%) (season: 40.0%)
Jimmy Jackson – 0 for 4 (0.0%) (season: 0.0%)
Jeremy Maclin – 2 for 2 (100.0%) (season: 100.0%)
Martin Rucker – 1 for 2 (50.0%) (season: 75.0%)
TOTAL – 10 for 25 (40.0%) (season: 32.7%)

Ole Miss
Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis – 8 for 16 (50.0%)
Seth Adams – 0 for 2 (0.0%)
Cordera Eason – 0 for 1 (0.0%)
TOTAL – 8 for 19 (42.1%) (season for all opponents: 40.0%)

Tony Temple had some nice runs Saturday, but most of his yards came from just a small handful of carries, only a couple of which came when the game was close. It’s once again hard to complain too much about an offense that’s averaging 39 points and almost 500 yards a game, but...the running game has got to get better.

Receiver Success Rate

Mizzou
Will Franklin – 6 for 8 (75.0%) (season: 75.0%)
Jeremy Maclin – 4 for 5 (80.0%) (season: 85.7%)
Chase Coffman – 4 for 4 (100.0%) (season: 90.9%)
Martin Rucker – 3 for 4 (75.0%) (season: 85.7%)
Jared Perry – 1 for 2 (50.0%) (season: 66.7%)
Greg Bracey – 1 for 1 (100.0%) (season: 100.0%)
Tony Temple – 1 for 1 (100.0%) (season: 100.0%)
TOTAL – 20 for 25 (80.0%) (season: 79.0%)

Ole Miss
Shay Hodge – 4 for 4 (100.0%)
Marshay Green – 3 for 4 (75.0%)
Mike Wallace – 2 for 3 (66.7%)
Robert Lane – 2 for 2 (100.0%)
Michael Hicks – 1 for 2 (50.0%)
TOTAL – 12 for 15 (80.0%) (season for all opponents: 83.3%)

Ole Miss did relatively well passing the ball, but their success all stemmed from Green-Ellis. As he went, so went the passing game.

Line Yards

Line Yards – Rushing
Mizzou: 3.42 LY/carry (season: 2.36)
Ole Miss: 4.06 LY/carry (season for all opponents: 2.83)

Line Yards – Total
Mizzou: 3.74 LY/play (season: 3.00)
Ole Miss: 2.95 LY/play (season for all opponents: 2.68)

This says the same thing as the ‘Run Success Rate’ suggested above: Mizzou has got to get better at running the ball.

Defensive Success Rates

Defensive Line
Lorenzo Williams – 3.5 tackles, 0.0 resulted in offensive success (0.0%)
Jaysen Corbett – 1.0 / 0.0 (0.0%)
Tommy Chavis – 0.5 / 0.0 (0.0%)
Ziggy Hood – 0.5 / 0.0 (0.0%)
TOTAL – 5.5 tackles, 0.0 resulted in offensive success (0.0%)
SEASON TOTAL – 11.0 tackles, 3.0 resulted in offensive success (27.3%)

Linebackers
Brock Christopher – 5.5 / 1.5 (27.3%)
Sean Weatherspoon – 4.5 / 2.0 (44.4%)
Van Alexander – 1.5 / 1.0 (66.7%)
TOTAL – 11.5 tackles, 4.5 resulted in offensive success (39.1%)
SEASON TOTAL – 24.5 tackles, 11.0 resulted in offensive success (44.9%)

Secondary
Justin Garrett – 0.5 / 0.0 (0.0%)
Hardy Ricks – 3.0 / 2.0 (66.7%)
Pig Brown – 3.5 / 2.5 (71.4%)
Carl Gettis – 4.0 / 4.0 (100.0%)
William Moore – 3.0 / 3.0 (100.0%)
Darnell Terrell – 1.0 / 1.0 (100.0%)
TOTAL – 15 tackles, 12.5 resulted in offensive success (83.3%)
SEASON TOTAL – 30.5 tackles, 22.0 resulted in offensive success (72.1%)

This pretty much shows the flaws in the ‘success rate’ idea. The D-line, led by Lorenzo Williams, has a great ratio of successful-to-unsuccessful plays. The problem is, they’re just not making enough plays, period. Too many plays are filtering through to the secondary. You’d expect the smallest number of tackles to come from the D-line, but they need to be making at least half the plays the LB’s are making. Stryker Sulak laid a big goose egg on Saturday...that cannot continue.

Turnover Costliness

After last weekend’s turnover deluge (7 turnovers in the MU-UI game), this game was played a bit more under control. Mizzou won the turnover battle, 2-0.

OleMiss1: Q2, 14-0 MU, 2nd-and-goal from the MU 12 (Green-Ellis fumbles at Mizzou) – 5 points
OleMiss2: Q4, 38-25 MU, 2nd-and-10 from the MU 21 (Garrett intercepts ball near goalline) – 4 points

Average: 4.5 points

Mizzou’s getting good at forcing turnovers deep in their territory, though if they rely on that too much, it will cost them eventually.

Mizzou Statistical MVPs

Offensive – Chase Daniel. The running game worked in spurts on Saturday, but not enough to prevent a deluge of 3rd downs. Throwing on 3rd-and-4, Chase was 1-for-1 getting the first down. On 3rd-and-5, 3-for-3. On 3rd-and-7, 2-for-3. On 3rd-and-10, 1-for-1. In all, he got the first down 7 of 9 times throwing on third down. That’s insane, and it made the difference in the game. Chase has lots of weapons at his disposal, but finding the right weapon at that high a rate is still quite impressive.

Defensive – Brock Christopher. When the game was within 17, the Tigers made 15 ‘successful’ plays (i.e. unsuccessful for offense). Christopher had 4 of them and forced a BJGE fumble inside the Mizzou 10. It wasn’t a good day for the defense, but they still made plays when they absolutely needed to, and Christopher led the way in that regard.