When we last left off last week, we’d perused 2006 data for Big 12 RB’s in regard to success rates, et al. Now we’ll do the same thing for WR’s and TE’s.
Again, all of the following data is from only Big 12 games, and only from circumstances in which the score of the game is within 17 points. To qualify for the list, you have to have caught at least 10 passes.
I will look at the same criteria I did for RB’s:
1. Total number of successful plays. This simply measures consistency throughout the course of a season. For Big 12 WR’s that fit the criteria, the average was 19.1.There were 33 Big 12 WR’s that fit the above criteria, and here they are (those in bold are 2007 returnees):
2. Success Rate (% of plays in which they touched the ball—rushing or receiving—that resulted in a success, as defined in last week’s QB post). This measures effectivness and efficiency. The Big average in this category was 80.4%...as expected, much higher than that of RB’s (46.6%). Considering that almost half of all passes are incomplete (and therefore unsuccessful), this seems pretty logical.
3. Average % of Success (comparing what they gained on each play as a percentage of what was defined as successful for the given play...a 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 would be 150% success. I cap the success at 1000% for any given play). This measures playmaking and explosiveness. For WR’s, the average was 278%, compared to a 142% average for RB’s.
1. Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State (33 successful plays / 91.7% success rate / 382% average success)Thoughts...
2. Joel Filani, Texas Tech (44 / 89.8% / 320%)
3. Maurice Purify, Nebraska (23 / 88.5% / 364%)
4. D’Juan Woods, Oklahoma State (25 / 92.6% / 310%)
5. Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma (39 / 88.6% / 287%)
6. Will Franklin, Missouri (22 / 88.0% / 336%)
7. Quan Cosby, Texas (24 / 92.3% / 263%)
8. Todd Blythe, Iowa State (15 / 93.8% / 323%)
9. Jarrett Hicks, Texas Tech (18 / 85.7% / 323%)
10. Limas Sweed, Texas (19 / 73.1% / 321%)
11. Dominique Zeigler, Baylor (25 / 73.5% / 280%)
12. Robert Johnson, Texas Tech (33 / 80.5% / 253%)
13. Terrance Nunn, Nebraska (21 / 78.6% / 275%)
14. Alvin Barnett, Colorado (12 / 92.3% / 338%)
15. Yamon Figurs, Kansas State (16 / 76.2% / 318%)
16. Manuel Johnson, Oklahoma (24 / 88.9% / 200%)
17. Trent Shelton, Baylor (15 / 71.4% / 304%)
18. Tommy Saunders, Missouri (16 / 84.2% / 251%)
19. Danny Amendola, Texas Tech (17 / 70.8% / 293%)
20. Jared Perry, Missouri (20 / 76.9% / 233%)
21. Daniel Gonzalez, Kansas State (10 / 76.9% / 368%)
22. Jordy Nelson, Kansas State (13 / 76.5% / 292%)
23. Todd Peterson, Nebraska (12 / 85.7% / 271%)
24. Chad Schroeder, Texas A&M (18 / 72.0% / 228%)
25. Joachin Iglesias, Oklahoma (14 / 73.7% / 252%)
26. Thomas White, Baylor (13 / 76.5% / 251%)
27. Dexton Fields, Kansas (18 / 78.3% / 185%)
28. Billy Pittman, Texas (14 / 66.7% / 239%)
29. Eric Morris, Texas Tech (10 / 62.5% / 274%...was part-time RB)
30. Brad Ekwerekwu, Missouri (11 / 61.1% / 255%)
31. Brian Murph, Kansas (12 / 54.5% / 210%)
32. Earvin Taylor, Texas A&M (11 / 73.3% / 172%)
33. Jon Davis, Iowa State (13 / 86.7% / 61%)
• D’Juan Woods was a forgotten man last year at OSU after Adarius Bowman emerged the way he did, but it looks like he played a vital role. Bowman was a big-play guy, but Woods always managed to get what was necessary when teams keyed on AB. Against UGa, no WR emerged to fill that role—TE Brandon Pettigrew did his best, but if he’s the #2 option, then a chunk of OSU’s explosiveness is negated.
• Tech’s WR’s are such a nameless attack overall that I didn’t realize Filani was that much more accomplished than Hicks, Johnson, Amendola, etc.
• Todd Blythe caught only 15 passes in Big 12 play when the score was within 17 points, while the entirely ineffective Jon Davis caugh 13. That really does suggest that the best defense against Blythe is having Bret Meyer at QB. The dude’s 6’5, and you have no other weapons. Even if he’s double-covered, just throw a jump ball. It’s the only hope you have on offense.
• Jordy Nelson was criminally underused last season, though the case for his being injured (when he was thrown the ball last season, he was less effective than the mediocre Daniel Gonzalez) seems pretty strong here. And seeing how many times Josh Freeman threw him the ball last weekend, the case for his being healthy now is quite strong.
• If Will Franklin hadn’t been hurt for most of the last two games, he’d have almost certainly ended up #3 on this list.
• Since Limas Sweed has been the #1 guy at UT for something approaching 17 years now, it was surprising to see that a) Quan Cosby seemed to be the Go-To guy last year (possibly because Sweed was double-covered?), and b) when Sweed did catch the ball, he had a success rate lower than Yamon Figurs and Joachin Iglesias.
Now, on to TE’s. I bumped the critera for TE’s down to 7 touches (the other criteria stayed the same) so we could end up with at least 10 TE’s on the list. The average figures for TE’s on this list were...
Successful Plays: 13.7 Success Rate: 80.1% Average % of Success: 263%
Here are the TE’s who made the list:
1. Martin Rucker, Missouri (21 / 91.3% / 269%)Thoughts...
2. Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State (11 / 84.6% / 312%)
3. Martellus Bennett, Texas A&M (21 / 84.0% / 264%)
4. Chase Coffman, Missouri (25 / 75.8% / 280%)
5. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas State (10 / 100.0% / 345%)
6. Joe Jon Finley, Oklahoma (10 / 83.3% / 260%)
7. Jermichael Finley, Texas (11 / 78.6% / 228%)
8. Derek Fine, Kansas (10 / 90.9% / 233%)
9. Rashaad Norwood, Kansas State (11 / 61.1% / 216%)
10. Riar Geer, Colorado (7 / 58.3% / 229%)
• Assuming Rashaad Norwood is unsuspended at some point, all 10 of these TE’s return in 2007. That’s impressive in and of itself.
• After railing against Martellus Bennett for most of the offseason, I’ll eat a smidge of crow here, ahem, and mention that his numbers were quite comparable to Rucker and Coffman. But they still weren’t better!
• Norwood’s suspension wouldn’t seem to hurt much since Mastrud caught almost as many passes and was far more effective. Mastrud caught four passes against Auburn, a solid start.
• As I mentioned earlier, Pettigrew was a big target for Bobby Reid in the opening game, and I’m thinking he’ll end up with more than 11 successful plays in 2007.
• The wildcard for 2007 is OU’s Jermaine Gresham, who is full speed (he was coming off of a knee injury last year) and running like a WR. I doubt any conference can even hold a candle to the TE production put out by the Big 12 this year.
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